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Economics: Energy Reform’s Stubborn Hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 18 May 2017

Three years since the energy reform was signed into law positive results have been recorded but there remains much work to be done in strengthening state-owned companies. One of the most successful aspects of the energy reform has been the enthusiasm with which investors have responded to the bi...

Temer at risk following news of audio recording
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2017

According to journalist Lauro Jardim, from O Globo newspaper, the owners of JBS stated in their plea bargain deal to the General Prosecutor of the Republic (PGR) that they recorded Michel Temer authorizing the purchase of the silence of the disbarred former president of the Lower House, Eduardo C...

1Q17 GDP at 6.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 May 2017

The headline GDP growth rate itself was unsurprising as far as we are concerned. We already noted in our just released Quarterly Report (“Settling In”) how early indicators pointed to a slower growth rate vs. 1Q16.Markets, on the other hand, were disappointed having expected a number closer to 7%...

Really bad news from the European Parliament to PM Viktor Orbán
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 May 2017

Today, the European Parliament voted by 393 votes against 221 with 64 abstentions that in Hungary, there is a serious deterioration in the rule of law and democracy. The resolution calls for:- the launching of Article 7(1) of the Lisbon Treaty. MEPs instruct the Committee on Civil Liberties, Just...

Prime-minister Groysman presents pension reform, still to be approved by the IMF
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 May 2017

Today Prime-minister Volodymyr Groysman finally presented to public his proposal on pension reform. He suggested increasing years of service (before being vested in a pension) up to 25 years from 15 years previously (35 years by 2028). At the same time, retirement age was left unchanged at 60 yea...

Politics: The Emerging Face of Organized Crime
MEXICO · Report · 16 May 2017

The attack on an Army unit last week in the town of Palmarito Tochapan in which four soldiers and four civilians were killed during the confrontation, is just the latest incident in a long but accelerating history of fuel theft and smuggling nationwide, and a problem that exemplifies the ways in ...

Q1 GDP: Nicely robust, but no great surprise
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 May 2017

Q1 GDP, preliminary, came out at +1.3% qoq, +3.7% yoy on sda basis this morning, without any sectorial details being reported for the time being. CEE economies typically did well on the same indicator, as reported by the Eurostat also today: Romania +5.6%, Poland +4.1%, Slovakia +3.1%, Czech Repu...

Reasons for Hope
CHILE · Presentation · 16 May 2017

The long-expected recovery has not yet arrived. The government’s reform agenda has impacted confidence, and the positive investment cycle ended with the decline in the price of copper. However, the economy seems to be coming out a double dip, with agriculture and services the champions. Given tha...

President Poroshenko bans Russian social nets in Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 May 2017

On May 15th President Poroshenko signed a decree imposing sanctions on 1700 Russian legal entities. At the sanction list we can see Russian TV channels, banks and… very popular Russian social nets like VKontakte and Odnoklassniki. Also the President banned Russian mail service mail.ru and search ...

Settling In
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 16 May 2017

The Duterte administration will mark its first anniversary in office in less than two months, with the business community reminded once again by parallels in the U.S. to “watch what he does, not what he says.” Indeed, the President remains highly popular and the business sector seems to be warmin...

Early Spring Galvanization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2017

As opposition street protests continue in Russia, although on a smaller scale than last month, the ruling elite started undertaking retaliatory measures to prevent the protests from continuing. Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s main organization, Open Russia Foundation, was declared undesirable, making its ...

Week of May 15
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2017 · 1 response

Mayors organize the March on Brasília and may announce measures to benefit municipalities in response to the government. The Lower House may vote bill on validation of fiscal incentives. Rep. Rodrigo Maia announces the voting calendar for Pension Reform.Leaders of the PMDB decide whether they sup...

Positive Short-Term Performance, Vague Plans for Medium Term
HUNGARY · Report · 15 May 2017

This year’s growth story started differently from everyone’s expectations. A marked recovery of industrial output took place in February and March, apparently driven by the increasingly strong European manufacturing sector. However, retail sales perplexingly slowed down in Q1, despite the massive...

Weak Activity, Falling Inflation and Strong Monetary Easing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 May 2017 · 1 response

For several months we have been presenting arguments that based on the severity of the recession and the absence of factors to hasten reduction of the negative GDP gap, the correct reaction of the Central Bank is to cut the interest rate more aggressively. The data published in the past two weeks...

The Road to November 2019
TURKEY · Forecast · 14 May 2017

After a narrow and somewhat contentious YES victory at the April 16th constitutional referendum, Turkey has achieved political stability of sorts, but as it is unlikely to translate to more democracy or better relations with the key Western allies, it is a tenuous one at best. Our base-case scena...

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