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Political environment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2016

The government concluded, within the projected timeframe, the vote on the Federal Spending Amendment. The score in the first round vote (61-14) was lower than the second round (53 x 16). The eight-vote difference is due mainly to absences. Only one senator changed his vote – Dario Berger (PMDB...

A recognition of fiscal misalignment
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Dec 2016

On December 9, the Executive presented to the Senate a bill to modify the budget for 2016. The bill includes a request for authorization of issuance of securities for DOP 11.8 bn or USD 253 million. Of these, USD 100 million are intended to finance operations for the construction of Punta Catalin...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Dec 2016

Although we expected an increase in the political tension around the approval of the spending cap PEC in the Senate, we did not imagine that the political conflict would spill over into a confrontation between the legislative and judicial branches, with reputational costs that are hard to assess....

Week of December 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2016

The Odebrecht plea bargain deal will continue to have major repercussions in Brasília. To create a positive agenda, the government is expected to launch a package of eight measures aimed at job creation and economic recovery. Despite the fact that the congressional recess begins on December 23, t...

Poorer in Q3, Richer on the Whole
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2016

Today’s GDP print showed that the economy contracted by a sharper than expected 1.8% in Q3, y/y, markedly worse than our expectation of “weak growth in moderately positive territory”. The sharp drop partly owes to a higher base, as we now learnt that – based on today’s new GDP series – the Turkis...

First facts about the impact of de-monetization upon business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 12 Dec 2016

We carefully examine the first five well-trusted data releases about the real economy that report on November 2016. This early data suggests that the shock in the event month (November 2016) was worse than what we observed in September 2008, the event month of the Lehman bankruptcy.

Fiscal Adjustment: Next Steps
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Dec 2016

With the likely final approval by the Senate (second floor vote) of the PEC that freezes spending in real terms, the government will have finished the first step of a profound fiscal adjustment. The second step is the social security reform, with the establishment of a minimum retirement age and ...

Inflation accelerates
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Dec 2016 · 4 responses

We hold to our November 18.7 percent MOM inflation estimate, despite the 165 percent increase in the price of the dollar in the parallel market in November. Low demand for dollars against this steep price increase led the parallel rate to a halt. In our view, the impact on inflation will be felt ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 11 Dec 2016

Turkey was shaken by another terrorist attack last night with two bombs exploding at a very central district of Istanbul, killing almost 40 (mostly police) and wounding another 160 people. No one had claimed responsibility at the time of this writing, but senior officials pointed to the PKK, the ...

The Current Account Deficit Widens as Exports Dip
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2016

According to official figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank, the deficit in the current account widened by R53 billion to register R176 billion in the third quarter of 2016 (see Table 1).

ECC Announcements: It's All About Growth and Credit
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2016

PM Binali Yildirim made the much-awaited announcements today on the measures that were decided at last Friday's Economic Coordination Council. The measures, the details of which we shall report further in due course, essentially target improving credit access for the private sector, particularly ...

Economics: Extent of Trump's Trade Agenda
MEXICO · Report · 07 Dec 2016 · 1 response

One of the central themes of United States President-elect Donald Trump’s election campaign was his call to review or cancel the trade accords the US has entered into with other countries as he claimed the US economy and employment have suffered as a result of the economic opening. Uncertainty re...

Politics: Nothing to Celebrate in Latest Crime Stats
MEXICO · Report · 07 Dec 2016

The latest National Survey on Business Victimization for 2016 (ENVE 2016), the third installment in the series, indicates that an alarming 35.5% of economic units in the country were victims of at least one type of crime in 2015, up from 33.1% in 2013. (Note: Victimization surveys reflect the exp...

Renan remains; vote on the Federal Spending Amendment still on
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2016

​By a score of six votes to three, the Federal Supreme Court decided to keep Renan Calheiros as president of the Senate. However, because he is a defendant in a criminal case, he is removed from the presidential line of succession.

Double Trouble: A Trump Surprise, and IMF Lending on Hold
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Dec 2016

The Ukrainian authorities, like the rest of the world, were caught by surprise by the election of Donald Trump. The Poroshenko administration had never approached the Trump camp before the election, believing that Hillary Clinton would be the victor. Now Poroshenko needs to not only build relati...

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