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Parliament approves budget amendments which should unlock the IMF loan
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Mar 2015

On March 2 Ukrainian parliament approved changes to the spending plan 2015. Revenues’ target for state budget was set 37% higher than actual collections in 2014 (UAH 498.2 billion vs. UAH 363.6 billion). Central budget deficit was also increased to UAH 76.3 billion which is 4.1% of GDP. Combined ...

The FDI Split
CHINA · Report · 02 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Exports fell -3.3% y/y in January in dollar terms, down 11.8 pps from Q4. Export weakening was likely due to yuan appreciation against the dollar. Imports fell -19.9% y/y, down 18.3 pps. After correcting for the effects of the Chinese New Year holiday, import figures should a...

Minister Takes Fall For Trade Drade
ECUADOR · Report · 02 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Minister of Industries Francisco Rivadeneira was fired on February 19th, apparently over a dramatic tariff hike on Colombian and Peruvian imports, a move quickly rescinded in the Colombian case, and being reconsidered for Peru. Falling oil prices, combined with dollar appreciati...

Declining Confidence Indicates Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Mar 2015

The confidence indexes produced by FGV have a proven track record of pointing to economic trends. And all of them indicate a new round of deceleration. We start with the consumer confidence index (Graph 1), which has been falling since the second half of 2012, and more steeply since the middle...

The Recession of 2015 and the Lessons of 1999 and 2003
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The growth of the Brazilian economy started to decline in 2010, and disappeared totally in 2014, a year of stagnation. Diagnostic errors and unwitting experiments in conducting economic policy explain that performance. To reverse this situation – and preserve the country’s in...

Week of March 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2015

Considerable expectations surround the list Prosecutor General Rodrigo Janot will release this week.With the release of the list, the Petrobras scandal will enter a new phase.The House could vote on minimum wage policy. The Senate is expected to focus on political reform.Congress meets to vote on...

Budget Speech Analysis
INDIA · Report · 02 Mar 2015

Executive Summary This Special Report was originally issued on March 1, 2015 as a post on GSP Direct, the GlobalSource Partners interactive webtool providing clients an initial response to breaking news and developments. The BJP, armed with a clear majority in the Lok Sabha and the desire to brea...

Cabinet dismissal under discussion
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2015

After new wave of hryvnia decline the Cabinet of Yetsenyuk is under attack. Budget deficit and hryvnia printing for budget needs were named as the key reasons for hryvnia plunging below 30 hryvnia per $1. On Feb 28 I was invited for a meeting with prime-minister and minister of economy. Near 10 e...

Budget Speech Analysis
INDIA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2015

The BJP, armed with a clear majority in the Lok Sabha, with the desire to break with Indian socialism, was expected to unveil a game plan for structural change from here till 2019. In large part, Budget 2015 does not rise to the challenge. It has some good elements, and with good execution, they ...

Honeymoon Cut Short
TURKEY · Report · 01 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Hours before our editing deadline, incarcerated PKK leader Mr. Abdullah Ocalan issued a call to separatist terror organization PKK to convene its Grand Convention to consider a “reinforced ceasefire”. Can it work? We only assign 30% odds to success. What does President Erdogan w...

Government Crackdown
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Although the launch of the new Marginal Currency System (Simadi) dominated economic headlines in February, it proved to be much ado about nothing. Despite the economic crisis and approval ratings at a paltry 20 percent, Maduro and his allies have consolidated themselves as chavi...

South African Budget 2015: Two Cheers for the Minister’s Maiden Speech
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Feb 2015

Minister Nhlahla Nene presented his maiden Budget Speech yesterday in the midst of much “expected surprise”. His government faced a complex blend of domestic and international challenges. Personally, also, he had to take a stand, come out of the shadows of the previous two Finance Ministers under...

Steady Policy
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Feb 2015

As the US Fed struggles with the language of its forward guidance, keeping markets on their toes, the BSP Governor has stated that any interest rate hike on its part need not be "in sync with the Fed" on both timing and size of adjustment. This jibes with our baseline read that local policy rates...

Heads up: Rumors of Babacan’s resignation
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2015

CBRT’s 50 basis point cut of the O/N lending rate didn’t please the AKP government. The chorus of objecting voices which began with Premier Davutoglu was soon joined by President Erdogan who accused CBRT to be in collusion with “foreign powers” to hold Turkey back. Afterwards Economy czar Babacan...

Off the Cliff
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Ukraine’s situation has deteriorated. Despite widely expected budget cuts, which should have secured a stable hryvnia, the authorities have envisaged an overoptimistic spending plan for 2015, which presumes heavy hryvnia printing. To make matters worse, it sounds as though the I...

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