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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Collapse of the Western narrative
UKRAINE · Report · 19 Mar 2024

The gloomy sentiments of winter have transformed into a “we’ll cope with that” attitude. Ukrainian forces retreated from Avdiivka due to a shortage of ammunition, while the Russians employed new tactics of distant, massive barrages with guided aerial bombs. The retreat was painful, but the withdr...

Four bills submitted by the government begin to block the agenda in the Lower House, the deadline to submit bills on income taxation and payroll tax ends today, and Haddad meets with Juscelino Filho to discuss import taxes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Mar 2024

Today, four bills submitted by the Executive Office with a constitutional urgent status begin to block the agenda of the House. The first is the bill that establishes tax and customs compliance programs within the scope of the Federal Revenue Service. Also today, the 90-day deadline for the gover...

Tajik-Kyrgyz Border being agreed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2024

On March 17 the two countries stated that they had agreed on 11 km of their 972 km border. Over 700 km is now demarcated. The two nations have a border dispute dating back to the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. The countries have repeatedly fought a low level conflict over the border. Both are m...

The labor market tightens, supportive of wage pressure
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

The recovery in the labor market continues In February, the (regular) unemployment rate remained low at 3.3 percent, compared with 3.2 percent a month ago (seasonally adjusted). According to original data, the broad unemployment rate fell to 5.4% from 5.9% a month ago and 10.2% in October. The nu...

Consequences of Economic Activity on Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Mar 2024

This week, the COPOM is expected to reduce the SELIC rate by a further 50 basis points to 10.75% and maintain the forward guidance for further cuts of the same size. In 2023, service prices were marked by disinflation, but there are risks to the continuity of this process due to the ongoing stron...

Economics: Strong wage growth continues even as hiring slows in tandem with the economy
MEXICO · Report · 18 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Job growth remains strong even as it has slowed in recent months, primarily in a stalling manufacturing sector, but even there and throughout the economy, wage growth remains robust. Hiring continues to be much more pronounced in the formal rather than informal sector even three years after a 202...

Industrial growth numbers look good, supported by an additional working day in February
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in February, the country’s industrial growth numbers looked strong – both in the case of mining and manufacturing segments. It occurred, not least, due to a leap year and an additional working day in February. The mining segment grew by 3.6% y-o-y i...

Finally, the C-word
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024 · 1 response

On Friday, March 15, in a speech aimed to invigorate his supporters, out of the blue, President Petro came out with a proposal everyone feared since he ran for president; namely, aiming to change the constitution via a Constitutional Assembly (CA). He finally recurred to the C-word. In his own wo...

Government re-assessment and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2024

President Lula holds the first ministerial meeting of 2024. In the STF, the highlight is the judgment on the review of pensions. The government publishes a revenue and expenditure report for the first two months of the year. The Central Bank will decide on the basic interest rate. This week's ...

Politics: With only marginal shifts in GEA-ISA’s latest presidential race poll, Xóchitl faces major challenges in the final 10 weeks
MEXICO · Report · 18 Mar 2024

President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen for a second consecutive quarter, and opposition presidential nominee Xóchitl Gálvez recouped three points of voting intentions, according to the latest GEA-ISA nationwide quarterly poll of registered voters. Mexico was only 24 hours into the g...

Chile: Progressive policy creep
CHILE · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

It seems that Boric has stopped trying to appeal to the center. His popularity—forever stuck in the 25-30% range—is unlikely to rise, or fall. Looking ahead, Boric told his cabinet, “In the remaining two years of government, (we need) not to make promises, (but) to fulfill them.” Boric, like most...

Lula will hold the first ministerial meeting of 2024 today, three bills submitted by the government should be put to a vote this week, and the STF should analyze the lifetime review of the INSS case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2024

This morning President Lula meets with his ministerial team. Recent polls show the deterioration of the President's image and the ratings of his government. Three bills from the Executive Office with constitutional urgent status begin to block the agenda of the House tomorrow. On Wednesday, March...

CCA Highlights: Armenia approaches neutral rate, Georgia makes a bold rate cut, Uzbekistan re-introduces limits on electricity consumption
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Mar 2024

We briefly comment on key macro and political events in the CCA space: Armenia: Deflation steepens in Feb Armenia: Central Bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.50 percent Armenia: CB Governor sees policy rate approaching neutral level Armenia: Budget posts surplus in Jan Armenia: Net ...

Abinader marches confidently toward re-election, amid a weak and divided opposition
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 18 Mar 2024

The new year got off to a good start, with economic activity growing 4.6% y/y in January, similar to the 4.7% y/y growth of December 2023. Inflation also performed well, declining for the second consecutive month, to 3.3% y/y in February. The monetary policy rate has remained unchanged since D...

Rate cut far from certain despite slowing inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Mar 2024

1. Despite inflation moderation in February, a rate cut in April is far from assured. 2. We are forecasting inflation of 3.2% in the NTM due to an expansionary fiscal policy, higher shipping costs, and an expected acceleration in rental prices. 3. The current account surplus has improved bu...

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