GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

- Trump threatens with 25-50 per cent oil tariffs on Moscow if a ceasefire agreement is not reached. - Moscow shows signs of rapprochement to new HTS authorities in Damascus. - Trump wants right of first offer regarding projects to develop Ukraine’s resources. - Russia forc...

Sanctions tighten rapidly

VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Apr 2025

Over the last few days, news regarding the Trump administration's sanctions on Venezuelan oil has pointed to an unprecedented tightening of the sanctions framework, which will substantially impact the country's oil revenues. The revocation of licenses and comfort letters, the March 24 Executiv...

Politics: Mexico’s police forces are ill-equipped to deal with heightened public insecurity

MEXICO · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Public insecurity is on the rise in Mexico. The latest national victimization survey indicates a 17% increase in crimes in 2023. The three most frequent crimes are fraud, robbery and assaults on public transportation or on the street, and extortion. The vast majority of these crimes, about 90%, g...

Israeli geopolitics: Trump, Tehran, and turmoil at home—Israel faces regional threats and political unrest

ISRAEL · Report · 31 Mar 2025 · 1 response

Key takeaways from this report: - A potential end to the Ukraine war under Trump’s mediation might allow Russia to redirect its focus back to the Middle East, causing destabilization from Israel’s perspective. - American-Iranian negotiations may ease direct confrontation but might agi...

Another minister with an impossible job

COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Mar 2025 · 1 response

The first impression one gets from the latest economic activity results is that Colombia did not take advantage of an enormous opportunity offered by international markets and economic conditions. Oil and coal prices were high over the last two years, as was demand, and 2024 economic growth in th...

Slide Presentation - Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead

ECUADOR · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Get insight into the Ecuadorian presidential debate and its implications for Ecuador with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead".

Economics: Amid shifting tariff threats, and cautious investors and consumers, indicators confirm a weakening cycle

MEXICO · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Indicators released in March confirmed that Mexico’s economy continues to stall. GDP decelerated to half a percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2024 under the weight of a sharp drop in investment and a further slowing of private consumption, as consumers grow more cautious and pessimistic ab...

Mixed prospects

CENTRAL AMERICA · Presentation · 31 Mar 2025

Guatemala posted solid economic growth in 2024, with GDP rising 3.7%, supported by strong remittances, resilient domestic demand and improving investor confidence under the new administration. Inflation fell to 1.7%, reserves hit a record high and the fiscal deficit narrowed to 1% of GDP. While m...

Why Bolsonaro is not yet defeated and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Lower House Speaker Hugo Motta is meeting with party leaders to discuss the amnesty bill for those involved in the anti-democratic acts of January 8. Motta may also announce the rapporteur for the bill on income tax reform. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM) may present a timetable for PLP 108/24, wh...

Yellow lights flashing

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025

The inflationary scenario remains challenging despite some signs of economic slowdown. The economy is expected to continue operating at full employment, maintaining inflationary pressure, as revealed by its underlying indicators. In the labor market in particular, the slow adjustment of the un...

Lower inflation means rate cuts, but pushback is building from inflation and stability concerns

PHILIPPINES · Report · 31 Mar 2025

We believe that benign inflation readings and forecasts should allow the BSP to sustain its easing cycle at least twice this year and in baby steps. Modest easing is critical when uncertainties abound, particularly regarding the prospects for growth and financial stability. With a potentially wea...

Still a plateau? MPC arguments continue to weaken

POLAND · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025

Today’s flash release of inflation for March 2025 by Statistics Poland shows the same 4.9% year-on-year (y/y) for the third consecutive month. Our estimate of the core inflation in March stands at 3.5% y/y (net of food, energy and fuel prices). As far as the components of inflation are concerned,...

Marco Rubio's most excellent trip to Jamaica

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 31 Mar 2025

From a Jamaican government perspective at least, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s trip to Jamaica could not have gone better. At his post-meeting press conference with the Jamaican Prime Minister, issues ranging from our use of Cuban doctors and the current negative US travel advisory were all de...

House leadership faces pressure over amnesty bill for January 8 rioters, tax reform advances amid debates on legislative deadlines, and U.S. tariff changes and trade talks mark key international developments

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025

The Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), will meet this Tuesday, April 1, with party leaders to discuss the bill that grants amnesty to those involved in the January 8 events. The House bills are awaiting the installation of a Special Committee. This week, Hugo Motta may announce t...

Long-time gap between real wages and retail sales growth closed in January

HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025

For quite a while, but at least throughout the whole of 2024, government speakers and all sorts of analysts have been complaining about the weakness of consumption growth, in comparison with the expansion of real wages. Problem solved, one could say when looking at the January data (yoy changes i...