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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 2 -
Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 7
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 11
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jul 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jun 16
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
China's growth and the Two Sessions
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Mar 2024
Investors are hoping that China finds a magic wand to reach the 5 percent plus growth target for 2024. Following the Two Sessions, one of the tools the government plans to use is fiscal, rather than monetary, stimulus. However, there is limited room for fiscal growth given the significant debt bu...
Current account surplus improves + institutions sell some FX in January
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024
Yesterday's shekel depreciation (1.1% against the basket) occurred despite the increases in overseas markets and positive news regarding an increase in the current account surplus in the fourth quarter, to $10.5 billion, compared with $4.7 billion in the third quarter. The goods and services acco...
Ricardo Martinelli (via his alter ego José Raúl Mulino) leads the polls by a wide margin
PANAMA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024
Today, the newspaper La Prensa published the latest presidential survey, in which José Raúl Mulino leads voter preferences with 26%, followed by a technical tie among candidates Ricardo Lombana (10.8%) of the MOCA party, Martin Torrijos with the Popular Party (10.8%), and Rómulo Roux (10.2%), lea...
Kazakh President in Azerbaijan to hail transport link
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024
On March 11 President Tokayev was in Baku for the arrival of the first containers to travel from China to Azerbaijan via Kazakhstan. This is via rail and the Caspian Sea, a route of 7,000 km. The journey took 11 days. The plan is for 10 such consignments to travel each month. Tokayev's 2-day visi...
Opposition prepares for 2026 election; recovery gains speed in Q1; BCRP to pause through May-June
PERU · Forecast · 12 Mar 2024
In this report, we summarize our latest forecasts. First, we discuss possible political scenarios. We analyze the recent Cabinet reshuffle, the resignation of Prime Minister Alberto Otárola and the appointment of his replacement Gustavo Adrianzén (our view is that this has changed little). Next, ...
Economics: Revenue shortfalls and accelerating spending again squeeze public finances, with further deterioration foreseeable this year
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2024
Public balances (budgetary, primary and total financial requirements) experienced a significant deterioration in the first month of the year that was in line with the trend of recent months. Although monthly balances tend to be marked by significant volatility, the factors that determined the lat...
Politics: Amid signs the race is tightening, uncertainty as to the direction a Sheinbaum government might take
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2024
Now that the final leg of the 2024 presidential election campaign is underway, much remains up in the air. Polls continue to offer strikingly different views of the direction in which voter preferences are trending, with many showing the race tightening, and overall, tending to dispel any thesis ...
European Parliament will take the EU Commission to court on funds to Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024
The forint is going through a difficult period indeed. This morning, it once again went to a new one-year low, reaching EURHUF 396-397 during the day. This time around, the immediate cause appears to be a new decision by the European Parliament's legal committee to sue the European Commission on ...
Lira will meet with party leaders to discuss the agenda, the president of Petrobras met with Lula to discuss dividends, and Lula has called for price reductions for electricity and food
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2024
The president of the House, Arthur Lira, meets with party leaders today to discuss the week's agenda. Two themes may be on the agenda: bills on energy transition and fuel of the future. Yesterday, the president of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates, had a meeting with President Lula, the Minister of Fin...
Pension fund withdrawal likely
PERU · In Brief · 11 Mar 2024 · 1 response
Congress' Economic, Banking, Finance and Financial Intelligence Commission has drafted a new law authorizing a new withdrawal from workers' pension funds. It proposes that those workers that had not been contributors until December 31st, 2023, can withdraw up to 4 Unidades Impositivas Tributarias...
Public sector cash flow and the IMF Article IV Report update
PANAMA · Report · 11 Mar 2024
In 2024, the public sector faces a projected 3.9% decline in total revenues due to the absence of significant one-time occurrences from the previous year, while primary expenditures are expected to rise by 8.6%. This increase is primarily driven by growth in current expenditure, particularly payr...
Lula's challenges and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024
The government may submit a new bill to Congress on the Perse program and payroll tax relief for municipalities. The STJ should adjudicate the inclusion of energy tariffs in the calculation of the ICMS. Mauro Vieira talks about the government's foreign policy. This week's Talking Points: ...
What Can Be Expected from the External Sector in 2024
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024
With the increasing importance of imports of cryptoassets and small value transactions, considered in the trade balance that integrates the Balance of Payments calculated by the Central Bank, the estimates need to be carried out with care. The traditional trade balance of imports, estimated by th...
The tax collections lull comes to an end
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Mar 2024
February inflation (1.2 percent) adds one more month to the disinflation trend recorded since October 2023. This monthly rate is the lowest since August 2012 and puts year-on-year inflation into double digits for the first time since April 2015. The improvement stems from nominal bolivar apprecia...
A bit of clarification on the ongoing conflict between the government and the MNB may be useful
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Mar 2024 · 1 response
This morning (March 11), the MNB has made an announcement on its website, claiming that Bloomberg had communicated false news and wrong conclusions about the MNB and the relationship between PM Orbán and governor Matolcsy. The MNB stressed that the Prime Minister and the Governor continue to be i...