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President Lula’s veto of parliamentary funds was criticized by members of Congress, Lira should meet with House leaders to discuss the veto on Monday, and a proposal on the strikes may be presented next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jan 2024

President Lula's (PT) veto of a significant portion of congressional funds was poorly received among deputies and senators, and now negotiations for changes to the budget are a priority for the Planalto Palace. It is worth remembering that many congress members were counting on the funds to deliv...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Cautious easing to continue in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Jan 2024

With Uzbekistan opening up the monetary policy season in the Caucasus and Central Asia on Jan 25 by keeping its key rate unchanged, we delve into our views about how central banks will conduct their rates policy this year. While average CCA inflation peaked around mid-2022, the uncertainty su...

NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 15%, updates forecast
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2024

As expected, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% on January 25th. Following a month of FX market turbulence, pausing rate cuts was a natural decision, particularly in light of the still-delayed financial support decisions from both the EU and the US for 2024. The press release sugg...

The South African Reserve Bank holds interest rates steady despite easing inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Jan 2024

Having gathered for its first 2024 meeting this week, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced its interest rate decision today. And in line with the recent US Fed decision as well as market expectations, the MPC once again voted to keep the benchmark interest ra...

Russian military plane shot down by Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jan 2024

On January 24 the plane was destroyed in Russian airspace. Surprisingly, Russia acknowledged the loss and attributed it to Ukrainian action. The Ilyushin 76 crashed near Belgorod. Moscow says all on board were killed and claims that 65 were Ukrainian Prisoners of War (POWs) and 9 Russian personne...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Jan 2024

Jan 11 Trade Ministry: Kazakhstan fulfills its obligations to reduce re-exports of dual-use goods to Russia S&P: Kazakhstan exceeded the OPEC+ quota by 10K bpd in December. Jan 12 National pipeline company: Kazakhstan supplied 993K tons of oil to Germany in 2023 and plans to raise this amount to ...

MPC: Done for now
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT hiked the policy rate by 250 bps to 45% (see chart) and ended the tightening cycle – at least in the near term -- in line with expectations. “Taking into account the lagged impact of monetary tightening, the Committee assesses that the monetary tightness ...

The government will issue a new ordinance regarding work on holidays, Lira scheduled a meeting with leaders next week, and the Voa Brasil program should be announced by President Lula on February 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2024

Yesterday, a meeting in Brasília finalized the agreement between the government, businesspeople, and workers regarding working rules for the retail sector on holidays. With the agreement, a new ordinance will be published, defining which commercial activities require and which do not require prio...

Kazakhstan macro: Domestic demand expands amid booming consumer credit growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Jan 2024

On January 19, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by 50 bps to 15.25%, which is still high as y-o-y inflation fell to 9.8% at the end of 2023. In December, m-o-m inflation reached 0.8%, implying about 10% annualized. Meanwhile, in recent months, the annualized 3M moving average inf...

Uzbek President in Beijing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2024

On January 23 President Mirziyoyev began a 3-day state visit to China. He seems to be mostly touting for investment. He is due to meet President Xi. China has been the single biggest trade partner for Uzbekistan since 2023. Trade between the two countries reached USD 14 billion. That is a stunnin...

Moderate recovery and sticky inflation
HUNGARY · Forecast · 24 Jan 2024

Our new quarterly forecast for 2024-2025 uses the average energy import prices of 2023, and it treats the possible escalation of the existing sharp conflicts in the Middle East, and a substantial upturn in energy prices and sea transportation costs as a result, as a major risk factor for 2024-202...

The National Negotiation Table meets to discuss work in retail on holidays, Haddad said that the income tax exemption range will be updated by February, and the Federal Revenue Service published updated data for 2023
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jan 2024

Today, January 24, the National Negotiation Table meets for the first time in Brasília to discuss work in retail on holidays. The table was requested after, at the end of last year, the Ministry of Labor issued a decree revoking the permanent authorization to work in retail on holidays. The Minis...

Economic contraction in Q4 apparently less than expected
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Jan 2024

The Composite State of the Economy Index increased by 0.4 percent in December—reflecting the economy’s gradual recovery from the impact of the war. The war continued in December, but its impact on activity continued to weaken. It is interesting to note, that the Composite Index, which is co-incid...

UK accuses Russia of buying munitions from North Korea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jan 2024

On January 23 the United Kingdom showed the UN satellite images of 3 Russian ships in North Korea that were allegedly loading munitions to be used in the Ukraine War. However, the containers loaded cannot be proven to be filled with munitions. The ships were photographed in late 2023. The US has ...

The Annual Budget Law was sanctioned by Lula yesterday, Federal Revenue Service tax auditors continue their strike, and Haddad said the government may have to cut spending to meet the zero-deficit fiscal target
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jan 2024

The Annual Budget Law (LOA), which was sanctioned by President Lula (PT) yesterday, was published in today's Federal Official Gazette. He vetoed part of the budget foreseen for committee amendments. The National Congress will likely try to overturn Lula's veto and reestablish the amendments. Acco...

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