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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Decent economic performance in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Jan 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 2023, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP covering about 60% of activity in the main segments of the economy) grew by 5.1%, implying that the country’s GDP could have expanded by over 5%. In 9M23, GDP grew by 4.9% y-o-y. The industr...

Protests in ethnic minority region of Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2024

On January 17 there were protests outside a courthouse in Bashkorostan when a local activist was given a 4-year sentence for spreading racial hatred. The police contained the protest only with difficulty and deployed 5 tear gas cannons. Scores of people were arrested. Some people were injured, bu...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2024

The ruble strengthened in the first weeks of 2024 to R/$87-88 from R/$90-91 at the end of 2023. Since January 15, the CBR has increased FX sales from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) from the expected R12.6 bn to R16.7 bn daily. The CBR had to adjust its plans amid a lack of federal budget revenues...

Federal budget execution numbers confirm the economy is adaptable enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2024

A few days ago, the Ministry announced preliminary federal budget execution numbers, suggesting that the macroeconomic policy helped the economy weather several storms caused by external pressure. Soon after the relations between Russia and the West appeared broken about two years ago, we mention...

Slide Presentation: Colombia in 2024 - Fiscal, Inflation, Reforms and Politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 18 Jan 2024

Gain insight into Colombia's 2024 macro and political outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Colombia in 2024: Fiscal, Inflation, Reforms and Politics".

Lira should meet with Haddad to discuss the payroll tax issue, the Ministry of Finance is considering ending the tax exemption on imports of up to US$ 50, and Lula plans to travel around the country this year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2024

Today, the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is expected to come to Brasília to meet with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), to discuss the payroll tax exemption. The Ministry is considering ending the import tax exemption on imported products of up to US$ 50, but this meas...

Two forint-negative events are reported today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Jan 2024

MNB's Mr. Virág spoke at Euromoney's conference in Vienna today. He gave a pretty specific guidance on the prospective path of the Bank's interest rate policy for the next six months. He said that the Council may speed up rate-cutting to 100bps per month at its next meeting on January 30, as curr...

2023 ended pretty weak, suggesting a weak start for 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jan 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * There were no surprises in Beijing’s recent economic data releases, either for December or for the full-year 2023. As expected, with annual GDP growth of 5.2 percent, China managed to exceed its GDP growth target, but (also as expected) not withou...

Haddad met with Padilha to discuss the payroll tax issue, Tarcísio publicly supported the re-election campaign of the current mayor of São Paulo, and the PT approved the affiliation of Marta Suplicy with the party to run for vice mayor of São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jan 2024

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), met with the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha (PT), to discuss the payroll tax issue. He did not say what the government's decision would be but said he would speak with President Lula to negotiate a solution. In the ...

Increases and promises have begun
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 17 Jan 2024

Increases and promises have begun On January 15, President Nicolás Maduro announced the increase of the Minimum Integral Indexed Income (Ingreso Mínimo Integral Indexado, IMII) for public sector workers to $100 (from $80, +25%) as of February 1, by way of an increase of the Bonus Against the Econ...

Ecuador’s violence sends shockwaves; El Niño impact less severe than expected; BCRP likely to pause in February and March
PERU · Report · 16 Jan 2024 · 2 responses

We discuss three topics in this report. First, in politics, we discuss the risk that the recent wave of violence in neighboring Ecuador will spread to Peru. Next, we discuss our economic outlook, and reassess the impacts of the El Niño weather shock. Finally, we discuss the recent decision by the...

Uzbekistan-to-China road opens
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2024

On January 10 the first TIR (Transports Internationaux Routiers or International Road Transport) truck departed from China to Tashkent, Uzbekistan carrying electrical goods. It is a 6,500 km journey. The route goes via Kyrgyzstan. The journey should take 7 days. Before the new road opened it usua...

Economics: Wage hikes and pending and potential labor reforms heighten labor cost pressures following a slight 4Q inflation rebound
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Consumer inflation concluded December 2023 with a slight rebound above levels of the previous few months, but at 4.66% it was considerably lower than the 7.82% year-end rate of 2022. Core inflation (5.09%) continued to outpace headline inflation, pressured higher by core services (5.33%), and foo...

Politics: A de-legitimizing loss of civility, and new corruption scandals within the 4T and the opposition threaten citizen participation
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jan 2024

The behaviors and practices of members of the political class from all parties in Mexico show with increasing brazenness what little regard they have for rules. The privileges that government officials and party leaders have historically enjoyed plus the widespread corruption under the previous p...

CCA Highlights: Fresh tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, energy extraction drops in Azerbaijan in 2023, Georgia confirmed at BB, new CB Governor in Tajikistan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

We highlight key macro-related evenst in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: CPI falls by 0.6 percent YoY in Dec Armenia: Net monetary inflows (remittances) drop to lowest in Nov Armenia: Budget deficit to remain contained in 2023 Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinyan takes a hit at Presid...

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