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The succession race one year out and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Oct 2025

Congress is racing to conclude the vote on Provisional Measure No. 1,303/25, which increases taxation on betting platforms and previously tax-exempt securities. The Income Tax bill is expected to reach the Senate, while the Lower House will receive the bill establishing the Managing Committee for...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 6, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Oct 2025

This week, Israel returned from an extended Yom Kippur weekend to a single trading day (Sunday) before entering another holiday break for Sukkot. During the intermediate days of the holiday (Chol HaMoed, Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday), business and financial activity will take place on a limite...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Oct 2025

OVERVIEW LULA AND THE EFFECTS OF HIS “BODY OF WORK” ON THE ELECTIONS Several factors have triggered a pendulum movement in expectations for next year’s presidential elections. The right suffered a major setback with Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction to 27 years and 3 months in prison for an attem...

Politics: USMCA review and the 2027 midterm elections are key to defining Sheinbaum’s second year in office
MEXICO · Report · 06 Oct 2025

Recently we presented an initial balance sheet of the first year of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government in terms of economic performance and social indicators. In this report, we will consider the main political issues, their ramifications and possible scenarios for her second year in office...

The Minister of Tourism has decided to remain in office despite party pressure, the Committee on MP 1,303 may vote on the measure tomorrow, and the bill on the income tax exemption begins analysis in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Oct 2025

Tourism Minister Celso Sabino has decided to remain in office even after his party, União Brasil, ordered all members holding positions in the federal government to resign. As a result, the party has scheduled a meeting for Wednesday to decide whether to expel the minister. The Joint Committee di...

Economics: Further evidence of weaker activity according to September data
MEXICO · Report · 06 Oct 2025

Economic indicators released in September confirmed a slowing economy. Inegi’s industrial activity report for July shows the sector’s most pronounced contraction since October 2024, potentially setting the stage for a negative full-year contribution to GDP. Thus, chances for 2025 GDP growth would...

Stubborn inflation, desperate corporates
TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2025

The politics author starts with the story of the takeover of Ciner Holding on charges of money laundering. There is not much new in macro-politics, which shall be covered in depth in our upcoming monthly that we plan for next Sunday, while for the politics author the takeover of all Ciner Holding...

Georgian Dream sweeps local vote, as expected
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2025

The local elections held yesterday, Oct 4th, did not offer any surprises as the ruling Georgian Dream sailed to an easy victory. I argued recently that Georgian Dream is in the driver's seat with regard to the local elections, including because of the rifts in the opposition and its lack of succe...

External shock, internal fragility
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 03 Oct 2025

Venezuela’s economy is moving into dangerous territory: falling oil prices and a tougher U.S. foreign policy are fueling uncertainty and eroding the government’s ability to stabilize just as the depreciation–inflation spiral is gathering force. Chevron’s return to Venezuela (under the conditio...

Another poor inflation print
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2025

Consumer prices rose at a much higher than expected 3.2%, m/m, in September (consensus: 2.5%, ours slightly higher) with the 12-month rate rising -- for the first time since May 2024 -- to 33.3% from 33.0% in August. PPI inflation increased by 2.5% m/m, lifting the annual rate to 26.6% from 25.2%...

Lula may see a boost in popularity following the approval of the income tax exemption bill, the rapporteur of the taxation measure is trying to meet rural caucus demands, and the Minister of Tourism may be replaced
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2025

The week ends on a positive note for the government following the approval of the income tax exemption bill. This is an important achievement for President Lula, who expects a boost in popularity as a result. Congressman Carlos Zarattini (PT-SP), the rapporteur of the measure, confirmed that he w...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi revises up deficit projection, Kuwait and Bahrain issue bonds, Trump announces Gaza plan and pledges to defend Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Oct 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped by -9% to $64, a four-month low, as another OPEC+ hike is expected. * Saudi Arabia estimates its fiscal deficit will be -5.3% of GDP this year, more than double the budget. * Its fiscal projections see...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: UZS benefits from a rare confluence of favorable external conditions
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Oct 2025

Last week, I argued that CCA appreciation vs. the US$ has come to an end and may only resume on a sustainable basis should the RUB start strengthening again (the RUB has already retraced some of its recent losses). I stressed that the Uzbekistani sum was the only CCA currency that did not quite f...

Economic growth continues to decelerate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) showed lackluster performance with just 0.2% y-o-y growth in August and 0.8% in the first eight months of 2025. Many economic segments were sluggish during this period, thou...

The Lower House approved the bill on the income tax exemption, the vote on the measure that taxes gambling was postponed to next week, and a draft bill is circulating that would counteract Trump’s sanctions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2025

With 493 votes in favor and none against, the Lower House approved the bill that exempts personal income tax (IRPF) on earnings up to R$ 5,000 (Bill 1,087/25). Despite resistance, the final text includes a tax of up to 10% on high incomes and dividends. Also on the agenda was the Joint Budget Com...

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