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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Opposition prepares for 2026 election; recovery gains speed in Q1; BCRP to pause through May-June
PERU · Forecast · 12 Mar 2024

In this report, we summarize our latest forecasts. First, we discuss possible political scenarios. We analyze the recent Cabinet reshuffle, the resignation of Prime Minister Alberto Otárola and the appointment of his replacement Gustavo Adrianzén (our view is that this has changed little). Next, ...

Economics: Revenue shortfalls and accelerating spending again squeeze public finances, with further deterioration foreseeable this year
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Public balances (budgetary, primary and total financial requirements) experienced a significant deterioration in the first month of the year that was in line with the trend of recent months. Although monthly balances tend to be marked by significant volatility, the factors that determined the lat...

Politics: Amid signs the race is tightening, uncertainty as to the direction a Sheinbaum government might take
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Now that the final leg of the 2024 presidential election campaign is underway, much remains up in the air. Polls continue to offer strikingly different views of the direction in which voter preferences are trending, with many showing the race tightening, and overall, tending to dispel any thesis ...

European Parliament will take the EU Commission to court on funds to Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024

The forint is going through a difficult period indeed. This morning, it once again went to a new one-year low, reaching EURHUF 396-397 during the day. This time around, the immediate cause appears to be a new decision by the European Parliament's legal committee to sue the European Commission on ...

Lira will meet with party leaders to discuss the agenda, the president of Petrobras met with Lula to discuss dividends, and Lula has called for price reductions for electricity and food
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2024

The president of the House, Arthur Lira, meets with party leaders today to discuss the week's agenda. Two themes may be on the agenda: bills on energy transition and fuel of the future. Yesterday, the president of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates, had a meeting with President Lula, the Minister of Fin...

Pension fund withdrawal likely
PERU · In Brief · 11 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Congress' Economic, Banking, Finance and Financial Intelligence Commission has drafted a new law authorizing a new withdrawal from workers' pension funds. It proposes that those workers that had not been contributors until December 31st, 2023, can withdraw up to 4 Unidades Impositivas Tributarias...

Public sector cash flow and the IMF Article IV Report update
PANAMA · Report · 11 Mar 2024

In 2024, the public sector faces a projected 3.9% decline in total revenues due to the absence of significant one-time occurrences from the previous year, while primary expenditures are expected to rise by 8.6%. This increase is primarily driven by growth in current expenditure, particularly payr...

Lula's challenges and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

The government may submit a new bill to Congress on the Perse program and payroll tax relief for municipalities. The STJ should adjudicate the inclusion of energy tariffs in the calculation of the ICMS. Mauro Vieira talks about the government's foreign policy. This week's Talking Points: ...

What Can Be Expected from the External Sector in 2024
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

With the increasing importance of imports of cryptoassets and small value transactions, considered in the trade balance that integrates the Balance of Payments calculated by the Central Bank, the estimates need to be carried out with care. The traditional trade balance of imports, estimated by th...

The tax collections lull comes to an end
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Mar 2024

February inflation (1.2 percent) adds one more month to the disinflation trend recorded since October 2023. This monthly rate is the lowest since August 2012 and puts year-on-year inflation into double digits for the first time since April 2015. The improvement stems from nominal bolivar apprecia...

A bit of clarification on the ongoing conflict between the government and the MNB may be useful
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Mar 2024 · 1 response

This morning (March 11), the MNB has made an announcement on its website, claiming that Bloomberg had communicated false news and wrong conclusions about the MNB and the relationship between PM Orbán and governor Matolcsy. The MNB stressed that the Prime Minister and the Governor continue to be i...

Polls reflect drop in government’s approval ratings, the House continues to elect presidencies of the permanent committees, and the STJ may adjudicate the case on the calculation of the ICMS tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2024

Last week, polls from three institutes (IPEC, Atlas, and Quaest/Genial) showed a drop in the government's ratings and raised concerns, especially due to the upcoming municipal elections. With this, President Lula is expected to hold a ministerial meeting next Monday, March 18. Also this week, the...

Deficit could undershoot on robust tax revenues
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Mar 2024

1. February witnessed further expansion in expenditure due to the war, while tax revenues remained stable. 2. Business sector activity continues to recover, while consumer confidence remains suppressed. 3. Israel’s issuance abroad will take some pressure off the domestic bond market.

Fiscal deficit pushes higher despite robust tax revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Mar 2024

The fiscal deficit reaches 5.6% GDP LTM The fiscal cost of the war in the first two months reached 17.3bn ILS (0.9% GDP), including most civilian support due to the war. Total expenditures are up by 44% y/y in Jan-Feb. Tax revenues surprised on the upside, reflecting stability y/y in real terms. ...

It's crunch time, again
TURKEY · Report · 10 Mar 2024

With three weeks left to the poll day, available evidence suggests that CHP has wind in its sails, across the nation. Of course, this is part of the natural cycle of Turkish elections, where CHP always leads only to be defeated by last-minute “policy innovations” of Erdogan. Yet, this time around...

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