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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The dark side of the moon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jul 2025

The surprising imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to the US is expected to have negative effects on economic activity, particularly on the manufacturing sector. The US absorbs 12% of Brazilian exports, accounting for just under 2% of GDP, but almost 18% of manufactured exports, equiva...

Israel’s post-war economic outlook: uncertainty eased, risks remain
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Jul 2025

The 12-day war between Israel and Iran ended with significant damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile capabilities without escalating into a broader regional conflict. For Israel, the outcome represents a meaningful improvement in its geopolitical standing and a substantial reduction ...

Economics: Public finance results in May show some positive results but not enough to forego a further deterioration
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2025

Some public finance results for May showed positive figures, but not many are expected to endure. The fiscal deficit was lowered a real -47% yoy thanks to an increase in budgetary revenues, especially robust VAT and income tax collections. However, depressed excise tax collections and oil-related...

This is the last week of congressional activity before the recess, the Lower House has important bills on its agenda, and a Joint Committee on MP 1.303 should be installed tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2025

This is the final week of activity in the National Congress before the recess begins on Friday (July 18). It will be an informal recess, as the vote on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) bill has not been concluded. The Lower House has important bills on the agenda, such as the Constitutional Amendm...

Politics: Initiatives and recently approved laws represent a worrying setback for freedom of expression and citizens' privacy
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2025

Is Mexico advancing, slowly or otherwise, toward an authoritarian state? Many critics of Claudia Sheinbaum’s government think so, and several recent developments would appear to validate such fears. For argument's sake, such developments could be attributable to some overzealous officials or chal...

The elephant has entered the china shop
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jul 2025

As his self-imposed 90-day deadline for trade talks had been passed, Mr. Trump sent out a number of letters in the past few days. Mme von der Leyen also received one, from which she learnt that the US government intended to impose a 30% general tariff on all of the EUs merchandise exports sold in...

Strong retail sales, modest fiscal improvement
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jul 2025

This is a brief, econ-only report, as our politics author is dealing with a few minor health issues. He will update our readership on recent political developments in the next 24-48 hours. Industrial production and retail and wholesale trade both rose visibly in May over April, but the big pic...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ accelerates taper, Oman upgraded again, Saudi to expand foreign property ownership, Trump threatens BRICS tariff
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Jul 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ is accelerating its taper by 0.55m b/d in August, more than had been expected. * The IEA estimates that Saudi production surged in June to 0.4m b/d above its quota. * Saudi Arabia was ranked 1st globally for ICT dev...

Russian macro: the economy is cooling as the growth model requires transformation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 11 Jul 2025

GDP statistics suggested that the nation’s seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 0.6% Q-o-Q in 1Q25. April statistics also failed to impress. However, the economy was seemingly looking up in May. As a technical recession implies negative economic performance for two consecutive quarters, this ris...

Trump’s 50% tariff continues to fuel tensions in Brazil, the government will evaluate the applicability of the Economic Reciprocity Law, and Deputy Lira presented his report on the income tax bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jul 2025

Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the U.S. continues to fuel tensions between the government and the opposition, bringing the 2026 presidential race into early focus. President Lula said Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) is in the United States to influence Tru...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account positions improve marginally in CCA in 1Q25
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Jul 2025

The 1Q25 data for the CCA economies, which was published over the last week or so, shows that the regional current account (CA) position improved marginally in the first quarter of the year, but remained in deficit. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan narrowed from 2.1 percent of GDP in 4...

Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, the Executive and Legislative branches continue to negotiate on the IOF tax hike, and a new poll showed that Tarcísio would easily be re-elected as SP governor in 2026
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday that he will impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian products starting August 1—a drastic increase that followed harsh criticism of President Lula’s domestic and foreign policies. Trump stated that if Brazil retaliates against the U.S., he will add the ret...

Israel's fiscal deficit holds at 5.0% of GDP in June, but risks remain
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jul 2025 · 1 response

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 16.4 billion ($4.888 billion) in June, with the trailing 12-month deficit unchanged at 5.0% of GDP. In September 2024, the budget deficit had peaked at 8.5% of GDP. Tax revenues in June were disappointing, falling 6% in real terms and at co...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jul 2025

Jun 25 Parliament: The Mazhilis (lower house) of the Parliament has finally approved the new Tax Code as amended by the Senate. The new Code introduces a progressive personal income tax scale: a salary of up to a specially introduced “monthly indicator” equal to 8500 per year (currently about KZT...

The voting agenda in the Lower House has been set for this week and next, Lira said he may present his report on the income tax bill this week, and Minister Tebet said the court-ordered payments issue must be addressed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2025

The Lower House has set the voting agenda for this week and next, before Congress recesses. One of the items is Bill 5122/2023, which addresses the renegotiation of rural producers' debts. Regarding the income tax bill, the rapporteur, Lower House President Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said he may presen...

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