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A misquoted statement by PM Orbán, on alleged spy drones in Ukraine's airspace
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025

A few days ago, President Zelenskyy accused Hungary of sending a spy drone into Ukrainian airspace on two occasions, both observed on September 26. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine even published maps to illustrate their claim, showing the alleged flying path of the Hungarian dron...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025

- Trump U-turns on Ukraine war, announces support for Ukraine’s 1991 borders. - Russia and China sign agreement on massive new gas pipeline after Putin’s visit to Beijing, the Power of Siberia-2. - Zelensky announces that he will not run again after the war, tries to address inte...

Decertification is deserved – yet unlikely to do much damage
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Sep 2025 · 3 responses

U.S. President Donald Trump has identified Colombia as a major drug transit or primary illicit drug-producing country, along with the usual suspects, among them Afghanistan, Bolivia, China and Mexico. It’s not surprising that President Gustavo Petro’s policies and military strategy have led Colom...

Justice Fachin replaced Justice Barroso as President of the STF, party leaders will set the week’s voting agenda in the House, and the Senate should analyze the amendments to the IBS Tax Management Committee bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025

Justice Edson Fachin has assumed the presidency of the Supreme Federal Court, replacing Justice Luís Roberto Barroso. Fachin sent important messages, stating: “Our commitment is to the Constitution. To the law, what belongs to the law; to politics, what belongs to politics.” Today, Lower House Pr...

Economics: The initiative to raise tariffs on 1,463 products will lead to increased costs and a loss of competitiveness in some sectors
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2025

On September 9, one day after the Economic Package was presented, the Ministry of Finance (SHCP) sent an initiative to modify the General Law on Import and Export Taxes (LIGIE). The initiative seeks to increase tariffs on 1,463 items by between 10% and up to 50% for the period from January to Dec...

The game goes on
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Sep 2025

Tensions between the Trump administration and the Venezuelan government remain in fragile equilibrium, with each side trying to force the other to break it. The U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean persists, but the pressure is now focused on narratives, demoralizing and isolating Maduro, an...

Bank of Israel rate decision: hawkish tone, but Trump plan could pave way for easing
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025

The Bank of Israel kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, in line with market expectations. In our view, the tone was slightly hawkish relative to expectations, emphasizing geopolitical uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the need to maintain financial stability. The wording was chosen to highlig...

Trump’s Gaza plan: broad support abroad, uncertainty over Hamas approval, rising likelihood of early elections in Israel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Trump’s 21-point Gaza plan has gained broad international and Arab support, but Hamas’s acceptance remains uncertain. In Israel, the plan currently enjoys political backing, though risks remain that Israel could withdraw from the understandings under political pressure or if Hamas s...

A favorable moment for Lula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025

A busy week in Brasília. High expectations surround the meeting between Lula and Donald Trump. In the Lower House, the Income Tax bill and Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1,303/25, addressing taxation on betting and financial investments, may advance. The opposition continues to push the Amnesty Bil...

Politics: Sheinbaum’s first year in office: a balance sheet of achievements and contradictions
MEXICO · Report · 29 Sep 2025

On October 1, Claudia Sheinbaum will have been in office for the first 12 months of her six-year presidency. President Sheinbaum is riding high, with opinion polls putting her approval ratings at between 60% and 80%. The achievements on some fronts have been real: a reduction in poverty and a ...

Mind the gap
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025

The Central Bank maintained its inflation projection for the relevant horizon, despite exchange rate appreciation and the slowdown in economic activity. One factor behind this decision was the upward revision of output gap estimates, reflecting the stronger-than-expected labor market dynamics. Th...

Will Beijing bail out the property market?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Sep 2025

“China’s regulatory rescue efforts are sometimes cautious, like giving a band-aid after a knife wound,” said Huan Li, co-founder of Forest Capital Hong Kong Ltd., a hedge fund with $200 million under management. “They don’t act until the worst moment, but when that comes, it may be too late.” Blo...

KUWAIT markets its first dollar bonds since 2017
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Sep 2025

As Kuwait sells its first Eurobonds since 2017, we review its prospectus and recent fiscal trends. The prospectus, unfortunately, has no new data and does not provide clarification on key topics such as the size of the General Reserve Fund. However, investors may not worry too much about the lack...

Lula is expected to hold a virtual meeting with Trump this week, the House may vote on the income tax exemption bill, and the Joint Committee on MP 1,303/25 may vote on the Congressman Carlos Zarattini’s report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025

President Lula (PT) is expected to hold a virtual meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. They will likely discuss the steep tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazil, as well as sanctions targeting Brazilian officials. The Lower House may vote on Wednesday, October 1, on the bill granting...

Rate decision preview: Bank of Israel to hold rates; updated macro forecast in focus
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Sep 2025

Most forecasters (including us) expect no change in the policy rate on Monday. Why do we believe the Bank of Israel will keep rates unchanged? August’s CPI, published on September 16, surprised to the upside with a 0.7% monthly increase. While annual inflation declined to 2.9%, back within the Ba...

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