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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 17 -
Brazil Economics databank Jul 16
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Central America databank Jun 28
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Chile databank Jul 22
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 8
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Dominican Republic databank Jul 18
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Ecuador databank Jul 19
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 26
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Hungary databank Jul 15
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India databank Jul 5
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Mexico databank Jul 9
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Panama databank Jun 7
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Peru databank Jun 26
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Philippines databank Jul 8
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Russia Economics databank Jul 12
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South Africa databank Jul 8
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Turkey databank Jun 10
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Ukraine databank May 20
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Venezuela databank Jun 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - VENEZUELA POLITICAL BRIEFING...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Slide Presentation - Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024
Get insight into Brazil's monetary and fiscal policy and its impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly".
Disinflation (with risks)
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jun 2024
In this piece, our outlook for 2024–2025, we hold to our single public policy scenario no matter who wins the July 28 presidential election. Regardless of that outcome, the Maduro government will be in power at least until January 2025 and will have incentives to hold to its stabilization course ...
Putin visits Vietnam
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2024
On June 20 Putin arrived in the country for the fifth time. He met the Vietnamese President. Russia likes to prove that it has cordial relations with some countries despite the Ukraine War. Vietnam is neutral on the war. Vietnam sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine. There is a small Vietnamese commun...
Putin visits North Korea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2024
On May 18 Putin arrived in the country for the first time since 2000. For a long time North Korea was unimportant to Russia. It mattered much more to trade with North Korea's regional foes: South Korea and Japan. All that changed in 2022. Russia needs shells and other military hardware. North Kor...
France to give howitzers to Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2024
On June 18 a deal was made with Armenia. They will be CAESARs, which are self-propelled. The agreement was signed in Paris by the respective defense ministers. Armenia's archenemy is Azerbaijan. Baku will not be happy that France is arming Armenia. Because the EU is trying to wean itself off Russ...
European and local elections have changed domestic politics substantially
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Jun 2024 · 1 response
In the European election of June 9, Mr. Orbán’s hopes that the radical right would beat the mainstream bloc were essentially dashed, despite the former indeed making some moderate gains. His immediate response was a sharp turn in external policies, holding back Hungary's blocking votes against NA...
The Challenge of Seasonality
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jun 2024
According to the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC), broad retail fell 1% in April, a contraction following 2.5% growth in the first quarter. However, it is noteworthy the discrepancy between this result and the growth of restricted retail (0.9%), vehicles and parts (1.6%), and building materials ...
Congress prepares for 2026 elections; we expect the fiscal deficit to widen, and the CA to remain in surplus; Central Bank will keep cutting, but more policy pauses can’t be ruled out
PERU · Report · 18 Jun 2024
In this report, we begin by discussing politics, focusing on the high number of laws approved by Congress that will shape the 2026 presidential and congressional elections. We then summarize our forecasts on the economy. We start by discussing our base, low and high-case scenarios, followed by re...
The economic team is still waiting for the compensatory measures for payroll tax relief, the Budget committee should present a proposal on spending cuts, and the rapporteur of the BC autonomy bill reads his report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2024
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that the economic team is waiting for compensatory proposals for payroll tax relief so that the Federal Revenue Service can run its calculations. The total cost of the tax exemption is R$ 26 billion. Yesterday, Lula had a meeting with the Budget Committee, wh...
A Hostile World Demands Coherence in Economic Policy Management
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jun 2024
The depreciation of the Brazilian real, which began late last year, has gained momentum in recent months. Part of this movement occurred alongside the appreciation of the dollar, but recently domestic factors have been predominant. The currency weakening occurs despite a positive exchange flow, d...
Economics: External and internal risks weigh on historically high FDI over the medium term
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2024
FDI remained high through 1Q24, but new investment flows have slowed to a trickle, and we look for both internal and external factors to seriously limit inflows over an intermediate time horizon. At 20.313 billion dollars, foreign direct investment in Mexico in the aggregate turned in a favorable...
Politics: The extent of the next legislative majority and AMLO’s "Plan C"—two transcendental issues
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2024
In the wake of the June 2 federal elections, the composition of the next Congress and López Obrador’s "Plan C" proposal to reform the Judiciary have emerged as the two main points of political debate. Morena lawmakers have announced that the open parliament discussions on the judiciary that virtu...
The spending-cut agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2024
The debate between the government and Congress over compensatory measures for payroll tax relief continues. The President of the Senate meets with governors to discuss state debt, and a proposal may be presented to President Lula this week. The Tax Reform Working Group in the House begins discuss...
A thorny path towards the presidency
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Jun 2024
President Noboa still holds close to 50% of popular support. He has stated his intention to run for president in 2025, and his party has been officially qualified by the Electoral Council to do so. His chances of passing into the second round of the presidential elections of next May are high, bu...
CA surplus remains strong, net FDI turns negative
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jun 2024
Macro fundamentals remain shekel-supportive, but slightly less in previous. The current account surplus reached 6.8bn USD in the 1st quarter of 2024, down from 9.3bn in Q423, but higher than one year ago (5.7bn USD, all SA). In Q124, the service account surplus held nearly stable at 10.5bn while ...