GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The past referendum and public consultation gave President Daniel Noboa a victory on nine out of the 11 questions proposed. This was a setback for the Correistas, who were campaigning for a “no” vote on all the questions. The winning questions all concerned crime control measures, while the two r...

Fiscal deficit expands on rapid expenditure growth

ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 May 2024

The fiscal deficit in the LTM rose to 7% GDP in April from 6.2% in March, but excluding the seasonal delay in revenues, the deficit stands at 6.7%. Spending is up 36% y/y in Jan-April while revenues are down 2.2% (nominal). We note that expenditure not related to the war is up 11.7%, which we see...

Inflation's downtrend ended in April, just as expected

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 May 2024

The headline rate of CPI-inflation was 0.7% mom, 3.7% yoy in April, the latter rising marginally, from 3.6% yoy in March. Core inflation still dropped, to 4.1% yoy in April from 4.4% yoy in the previous month. Non-fuel inflation also decreased, to 3.7% yoy from March's 4.1%. Consumer prices rose ...

Watch the (monthly) pace and hope for the best

TURKEY · Report · 09 May 2024

The CBRT released the second Inflation Report of the year with a nice and comprehensive presentation by Governor Fatih Karahan (see link here for the transcript, here for the presentation). We provide some relatively detailed highlights on the presentation and the Q&A session, followed by comment...

On Victory Day Putin says Ukraine War is like WW II

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 May 2024

On May 9 Putin addressed a crowd in Moscow at the annual commemoration for the end of World War II. Putin denounced Western nations for twisting the history of WW II and for causing conflicts. He railed against Western neo-imperialism and its support for what he termed "neo-Nazism". Putin claimed...

Relations between G7 and Russia at their worst

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2024

On May 6 the ambassador was spoken to in the Russian Foreign Ministry because of statements made by their governments. London maintains that its ambassador was not summoned but attended an ordinary diplomatic meeting. The British Foreign Secretary said that it did not object to Ukraine's using Br...

Economics: Pemex crude exports fall as company and public finances continue to deteriorate

MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2024

Official information regarding the evolution of Petróleos Mexicanos' financial and operating situation, as well as the performance of public finances as of the first quarter of 2024 was released in the last few days. Pemex registered a relative improvement between January and March in some of its...

Beneath the diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China

PHILIPPINES · Report · 06 May 2024

This report adds new information about the economic implications of the China-Philippines maritime conflict to our previously published report "Diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China". It is best to consider that since the dispute is diplomatic, the solution should remain diplo...

An intense week in the Legislature and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2024

This will be a busy week in Brasilia. Arthur Lira may announce the analysis of Tax Reform regulations. In the Senate, the bill that issues R$15.4 billion in credit for the government may be put to a vote. Congress meets to analyze presidential vetoes. The STF resumes adjudication of the state-own...

Politics: Impact of the second presidential debate and a troubling legislative agenda

MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2024

The second of three presidential candidates’ debates was held on April 28. Unlike the first event on April 7, in which Xóchitl Gálvez was widely seen as having squandered a crucial opportunity to eat into Claudia Sheinbaum’s lead, this time the opposition coalition nominee appeared better prepare...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to moderate amid limited stimulus, murky stats

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 May 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for overall economic activity) grew by 4.7% y-o-y in 1Q24. It grew by 5.1% in 2023. The short-term indicator incorporates the segments of industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportat...

Inflation continues to trend downward. For this trend to solidify, the process of the removal of exchange controls must be clearly outlined.

ARGENTINA · Report · 06 May 2024

The monthly inflation rate reported by INDEC for April is expected to be around 8.5%, three percentage points higher than the estimates based on online prices. This disparity is attributed to adjustments in prices and utility tariffs previously heavily controlled and distorted by the former gover...

Increasing indications of slowing growth

ISRAEL · Report · 06 May 2024

1. Economic indicators appear mixed, with signs of slowing growth ahead. 2. We continue to expect inflation to accelerate, limiting the possibility of monetary easing. 3. The shekel continues to fluctuate on shifting expectations regarding a possible cease-fire.

Diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China

PHILIPPINES · Report · 06 May 2024

The economic implications of the maritime and diplomatic stand-off between the Philippines and China cannot be overemphasized. Since the Philippines is expected to continue documenting and exposing similar attempts of China to expand its territories, and China would invariably deny them, the sign...

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan tell their people: do not go to Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2024

On May 2 Kyrgyzstan made the announcement. Tajikistan did so on April 28, 2024. This is in the wake of the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack that killed 144 people. 11 Tajik men face trial for this. Central Asians who go to Russia face intense questioning at border control and having their lugga...