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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The end of the Jamaica bid (for now)
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 19 Jul 2022

The recent collapse of the near 22-year-old support for the Jamaican yield curve from Jamaican buyers, or the so called "Jamaica bid", is worthy of a detailed overview on its own. The timeline really begins with the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) beginning its interest rate tightening cycle in the second ...

New Russian pipeline to cross Mongolia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2022

On July 19 the Prime Minister of Mongolia said that the natural gas pipeline will go to China. It is the Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline. Russian gas that used to be sold to the EU is being redirected to China. The pipeline is projected to be completed in 2030. It is doubtful that it will be complete...

Kazakhstan seeks to attract businesses that have left Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2022 · 1 response

On July 14 the President of Kazakhstan said his country wishes to welcome hundreds of Western businesses that have left Russia to set up in his country. Moscow will not like this. Kazakhstan is in the CSTO and the Eurasian Union, which are both Russian led. The country has refused to recognize Lu...

Bolsonaro criticized electronic voting machines at a meeting with ambassadors, the Novo party filed a lawsuit against the Social Benefits Constitutional Amendment, and Senator Simone Tebet suffered yet another setback
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2022

Bolsonaro brought known arguments against the machines and said Ministers Edson Fachin, Alexandre de Moraes and Luis Roberto Barroso lack neutrality. Minister Fachin, as well as candidates for the presidency criticized President Jair Bolsonaro’s statements. The STF is in recess, and a date for a ...

Kazakhstan macro: Driving smart over a bumpy road
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Jul 2022

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1H22, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP, which incorporates activity in industry, transport, agriculture, construction, trade, and communications) was up by 4.5% y-o-y. Overall, the figure doesn't look too bad amid the still stron...

Economics: Weakening of development banks poses risks for public finance and the banking system
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jul 2022

Mexico’s development banks are of particular interest in what is unquestionably a highly complicated economic and financial panorama. At the end of 2021, total development bank loan portfolios totaled 1.05 trillion pesos, in real terms, 12.5% below levels of December 2018. Between 2018 and 2021 ...

Fiscal Fragility and Concern Over the Road Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jul 2022

In the past 30 days, the Real has weakened from R$5.10/US$ to R$5.40/US$, once again placing it among the currencies that have depreciated the most in relation to the dollar. At the same time, the 10 year Brazilian CDS quotes – a traditional risk measure – have surpassed 400 points. Since the cou...

Politics: AMLO´s visit to Washington has little to show
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jul 2022

When President López Obrador announced plans for an official work trip to Washington after he shunned President Biden’s Summit of the Americas, it wasn’t immediately clear exactly what officials in both countries expected to accomplish. No specific agenda was ever announced, and a US official was...

Why Lula wants to avoid a second round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2022

On Monday, Bolsonaro has a meeting with foreign ambassadors to discuss electronic voting machines. On Wednesday, July 20, the party convention period begins. The PDT, PT and PL conventions will be held on July 20, 21 and 24, respectively. Two polls on the presidential election (PoderData and Exam...

Zelensky fires two top officials as Russia targets HIMARS
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2022

On July 18 Zelensky fired his security chief and prosecutor general. He said 650 people are suspected of treason and 60 officials in the Russian occupied zone are working for Russia. The firings are indicative of disarray in the Ukrainian government. How do they see their future in view of the wa...

Putin says Russia suffers colossal tech problems due to sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jul 2022

On July 18 Putin said that Russia would surmount the problems caused by sanctions. He said the situation was, ''hugely challenging''. This will please the West. ''We cannot develop in isolation'' added Putin. Apple, Microsoft, Intel and other tech companies ended operations in Russia in March 202...

Still growing, amid inflation-fighting and great uncertainty
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 18 Jul 2022 · 1 response

The Dominican economy continues to grow, although at a slower monthly rate. In January-May 2022, the economy grew 5.6%, compared to the same period of 2021. But projections indicate that 2022 growth will end up at 5%, or possibly even less, at closer to 4.3%. For H2 2022, a significant growth slo...

Bolsonaro will meet with ambassadors to discuss the electronic voting machines, Lula is trying to gain support from the agribusiness and business sectors, and party conventions begin on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro's idea is to present data that he believes shows the fragility of the electronic voting machines in the country. The presidents of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will not participate. Afterward, Bolsonaro will hold an event for his ...

Inflation in line with expectations as rental prices accelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Jul 2022

1. June’s CPI (in line with consensus) reflects increased service price inflation, especially in housing rental prices. 2. Core inflation accelerated to 4.1% y/y in June, up from 3.65% last month. 3. Trade data reflect expansion in both exports and imports as economic activity remains fairly st...

Zelenskiy removes the Head of Secret Service and Chief Prosecutor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jul 2022

Yesterday, late in the night President Volodymyr Zelenskiy informed that he removed the Head of Secret Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) Ivan Bakanov and the Chief Prosecutor Iryna Venediktova. In the case of Bakanov, the formal reasoning for his displacement were the failures defending the South from Russ...

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