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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation forecast moved sharply higher
HUNGARY · Forecast · 22 Jul 2022

Compared with our previous forecast, released in April, the most important change is a massive upward revision of the inflation outlook for this year and 2023. At this moment, we expect CPI-inflation to peak in the high teens around end-2022 and decelerate from that point onwards, back to a high ...

The Ministry of Economy will publish the Expense and Income Evaluation Report, Geraldo Alckmin meets with agribusiness leaders, and next week will be the last week of the judicial and legislative recesses
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2022

The data from the Expense and Income Evaluation Report will be discussed on Monday morning, July 25. Based on the published figures, the government is expected to announce a budget cut that could reach R$ 5 billion. As it is an election year, the decision is complex and may cause reactions from a...

The key rate cut to 8.00%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jul 2022

The CBR cut the key rate by 150 bps to 8.00%, which is a rational move in the current domestic environment amid continuous efforts of “unfriendly” jurisdictions to damage the country’s economy as much as possible. As Russia gets increasingly isolated from the “unfriendly” financial markets while ...

The NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 25% and adjusts the hryvnia exchange rate
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2022

Yesterday, on July 21 the NBU Board informed on its decision to keep prime rate unchanged at 25%. High inflation (21.5% y/y in June with a 30% perspective in 2022), substantially damaged economy by Russian aggression (the NBU estimate a near 40% GDP plunge in 2Q 2022), hryvnia printing for the ne...

Silvina Batakis' baby-steps did not convince the market
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 21 Jul 2022

As pointed out in our recent webinar on Argentina, the market remains expectant of whether the new economy minister, Silvina Batakis, is going to be able to implement policy measures to limit the fiscal deficit and reduce the expectations of monetary expansion and eventually FX devaluation. In sh...

The electricity rate frozen until further notice
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Jul 2022

According to the Electric Pact, a new quarterly adjustment of the electricity rate was required in July-September, which was issued on June 30 by the Superintendency of Electricity (SIE). However, this increase was rescinded by the SIE since two days ago the government asked the Economic and Soci...

The South African Reserve Bank accelerates policy normalization with a 75-bp interest rate hike
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Jul 2022

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hike the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, the second consecutive increase of an above-25 bp magnitude, following the conclusion of its fourth meeting of the year. As such, the repo rate has increased to 5.5% from 4.75%, while ...

Volatility is the new normal
CHILE · Report · 21 Jul 2022

Economic activity is decelerating, while confidence is receiving simultaneous knocks on several fronts. The proposal for a new Constitution is a source of economic uncertainty: the proposed text is vague, and while introducing many principles and rights fails to solve some evident conflicts of in...

Russia fines Google USD 360 million
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2022

On July 18 a court fined the company for not taking down material that Russia calls fake news. Roskomnadzor (the Russian Communications Commission) said that Google had allowed extremist and terrorist propaganda to stay up, including incitement for minors to protest. The government has been getti...

Nothing new on the MPC front
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Jul 2022

The Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 14% at today’s meeting, as expected. There is almost nothing material to report, but we share a few thoughts anyway. The statement says (link here) growth has remained robust in Q2, with “stronger job growth than peers” (which is a n...

Ciro Gomes’s candidacy for the Planalto Palace has been officially launched, the Lula-Alckmin ticket will be officially launched today, and the government’s economic measures have had a positive effect on Bolsonaro’s popularity
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2022

Ciro has not yet chosen his vice president, but he has said that as far as he is concerned, it will be a woman. He has not had the best performance in the polls - registering around 6% to 8%. He said he will resolve the debt crisis that affects 66 million Brazilians. Today, the PT will hold its c...

The short-term and medium-term outlook for export-led growth
INDIA · Report · 21 Jul 2022

During the pandemic, Developed Markets consumers supported the world economy by buying more goods, and there was a great export boom in India. This export boom is likely to subside, given the combination of DM fiscal policy normalization, monetary tightening, and DM consumers' rotating away from ...

Manufacturing activity remains fairly strong on domestic demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Jul 2022

The PMI increased in June by 0.8 points to 53.4 points, moving higher for the third straight month. The domestic orders component increased by 6.4 points to 58.5 (strong expansion) while export orders declined by 4 points to 49.7 (no growth). The production component increased to 57.2 points whil...

Putin in Iran and meets Turkish President
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jul 2022

On July 19 Putin flew to Teheran and met the leaders of Iran and Turkey.  Turkey is the NATO country with the best relationship with Russia. This is due to economic ties but also the need to prevent Russia from being too helpful Armenia. Putin discussed allowing Ukrainian grain to be shipped out ...

Some in the MDB are trying to postpone the party’s convention, Jair Bolsonaro’s meeting with ambassadors is still causing repercussions, and Petrobras announced a drop in fuel prices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2022

The MDB party convention is scheduled for July 27 and will be held virtually. The pro-Lula wing has claimed that support for the PT’s candidacy would be a way to avoid institutional conflict given President Jair Bolsonaro’s criticism of the electronic voting machines. The goal is to postpone it t...

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