GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On April 19 Armenia ceded the land to its neighbor as part of a border demarcation agreement. The four villages were part of Azerbaijan in the Soviet era. This has caused protests in Armenia, where some people believe the government is being feeble and cowardly. Some say Prime Minister Pashinyan ...

Many questions, no answers

TURKEY · Report · 21 Apr 2024

While President Erdogan promised change after the defeat of the AKP-MHP alliance, so far, he has neither taken any steps, nor has he provided any hints about new policies, save in economics. Pro-AKP press claims he is biding his time, but the first essay in the politics section concludes the Pres...

Russia slams US aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2024

On April 20 the US House of Representatives passed a military aid package for the 3 countries. This includes USD 61 billion for Ukraine. The aid packages needs to pass the Senate, which is almost certain to happen. Biden has vowed to sign the bill as soon as it is passed. The bill has been delaye...

GL 44a: Case-by-case flexibility, with opacity

VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Apr 2024 · 1 response

General License 44a (GL 44a), dated April 17, 2024, requires that oil and gas activities not expressly subject to General Licenses 41 (Chevron) and 8m (Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Weatherford) be granted special licenses by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Co...

GULF WEEKLY: Floods batter Gulf, Israel-Iran clash may be over, Microsoft invests $1.5bn in G42, Kuwait has a new PM

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Apr 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Iran and Israel exchanged carefully calibrated attacks and have hopefully come to a pause. *Oil prices briefly spiked today on the Israeli attack but settled after more details emerged. *The US vetoed Palestinian UN member...

Tension between the government and Congress increases, the government is expected to submit the bills on Tax Reform regulation next week, and Congress should analyze presidential vetoes next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2024

This week was tumultuous from a political point of view. The new conflicts between the government and Congress are worrisome. In the House, the tension is between the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Minister of the Institutional Relations Secretariat, Alexandre Padilha. In ot...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diamond-turbocharged growth in Armenia

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Apr 2024

Armenia was the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world last year (8.7 percent in 2023), but the heady pace of expansion had been slowing down to around 5-6 percent YoY by Sep/Oct last year when a sudden surge of economic activity resulted in much accelerated growth. Indeed, over Nov-Feb GDP ...

The end of interest rate cuts is near

HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Apr 2024

Our new quarterly forecast changes moderately from the previous one, issued in January. We still expect considerable economic recovery in 2024, but we scaled back our GDP forecast given the weakness of European industry, especially car manufacturing, and the longer-than-expected time required for...

Russian peacekeepers will withdraw from Azerbaijan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2024

On April 17 Putin's spokesman made the announcement. After the 2020 war Russia mediated peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The peace agreement provided for 1,500 Russian troops to keep the peace in Nagorno-Karabakh. The region is legally Azerbaijani but was then ethnically almost exclusively A...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2024

Apr 4 Sinopec: The Chinese company Sinopec has officially become a co-founder of Silleno LLP, which is involved in the construction of a polyethylene plant in Kazakhstan. Apr 6 President: Mr. Tokayev described the current floods as the biggest disaster in the past 80 years, both in terms of scale...

Economy grows steadily in March, albeit with some moderation

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the short-term indicator (a sort of a monthly proxy for GDP) grew y-o-y by 4.7% and 4.1% in 1Q24 and March. General trends remained the same, i.e., economic growth remained uneven by sectors. Industrial output increased over the same time frames by ...

On the road to normality? Growth nears potential and inflation is under control, but currency depreciation and interest rates are high

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 16 Apr 2024

Q1 2024 ends with some signs that the Dominican economy is on its way to achieving trend values for key economic variables, such as growth and inflation. In January-February the average interannual growth of economic activity was 5.4%, close to potential growth, and inflation in Q1 was 3.33% y/y,...

Floods threaten Russian cities

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2024

Flooding has gotten worse in Russia and Kazakhstan in mid April. An unusually early and warm spring caused snow and ice to melt abruptly. The premature and sudden thaw means that rivers have burst their banks. Heavy rains have aggravated the situation. The Ishim River, which flows from Kazakhstan...

Boluarte government weakened further; economic recovery takes off in Q1 2024; BCRP’s 25bp cut surprises markets

PERU · Report · 16 Apr 2024

In this report we discuss recent political developments, with a focus on President Dina Boluarte; using high-frequency economic reports, we present our updated forecast, and argue that the economy rebounded in Q1 2024; and discuss the BCRP Board’s decision to cut rates by 25bp, surprising both ma...

Economics: US industry’s stalling trend and the super peso continue to undercut Mexico's manufacturing

MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2024

Last week’s industrial activity report for February confirmed a continuation of its slowing trend. The construction sector remained almost the only source of growth but its pace slowed to a rate well below the average of the previous nine months. US industrial production’s stalling trend dati...