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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 17 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 25
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Ecuador databank Sep 30
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 17
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: GOING INTO THE FIRST ROUND...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Trump’s tariffs are set to take effect this Friday, the government is preparing a series of countermeasures in response, and the Central Bank will meet this week to decide on the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2025
A 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the United States is scheduled to take effect on Friday, August 1. Negotiations between the two countries have been tense and have shown little progress. Brazil’s Ministries of Finance, Industry and Trade, and Foreign Affairs are preparing a set of countermeas...
The CBR cut the key rate by 200 bps as inflation subsides
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2025
On July 25, the CBR’s Board of Directors cut the key rate by 200 bps to 18% and announced it expects the policy rate to average 18.8-19.6% this year. Therefore, the regulator hinted at another 200 bps cut, most likely in September, as August will likely be deflationary. The CBR sees inflationary ...
CBRT cuts, Moody’s upgrades, politicians dither
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2025 · 1 response
With few neurons firing during an excruciating heatwave, the politics author cuts his essays short, saving his energy for the upcoming quarterly/forecast report. Frankly, with everything being in the air, there is not much to report home, except to say, “this looks like a pregnant pause”. He expe...
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s deficit narrows, Qatar bids for Olympics, UAE companies invest in Saudi, France will recognize Palestine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Jul 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * UAE-Saudi cooperation: Al-Futtaim invests in Cenomi and Air Arabia partners for a Dammam airline. * Deals worth $6bn were signed at the Saudi-Syrian investment forum in Damascus. * Dubai saw record home sales in Q2, and S...
NBU holds rate at 15.5% as poor crop outlook fuels inflation risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jul 2025
On July 24th, yesterday, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% for the third consecutive time. Concerns about the 2025 crop outlook are among the key reasons behind this decision. Wheat yields are expected to be about 5% lower than last year, and projections for other crops are als...
Brazil is showing the first signs of negotiations with the U.S., a congressional committee on the issue is expected to begin its agenda next week, and Justice Moraes ruled that Bolsonaro is allowed to give interviews
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2025
The Brazilian government is showing the first signs that it has established a line of communication with the United States regarding the tariffs announced by Trump. Yesterday, Vice President and Minister of Industry and Trade Geraldo Alckmin said he had a long phone conversation with U.S. Commerc...
Replay and Slide Presentation: Political Passions in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Presentation · 25 Jul 2025
Is Georgian Dream in the driving seat in the runup to the local elections in October? Why is Armenian PM Pashinyan taking a gamble attacking the Church and what does it have to do with the June 2026 Parliamentary Elections? CCA currencies are in a sweet spot, but for how long? Get insight into...
A private oil license follows the prisoner exchange
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Only four days after the prisoner exchange took place, rumors about a new (probably private) license for Chevron, fueled by the news that Javier La Rosa, head of Base Assets & Emerging Countries at Chevron, had spent a few hours in Venezuela, spread rapidly.
Brazil is still struggling to negotiate with the U.S. regarding Trump’s tariffs, the government is looking for alternative markets for the country’s exports, and Bolsonaro’s legal team discuss Supreme Court restrictions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2025
As Brazil struggles to open a negotiation channel with the United States, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to receive today from his economic team a set of proposals in response to the 50% tariff hike announced by Donald Trump on Brazilian products. These options will be presented to ...
MPC: in a bit of a hurry
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2025
The CBRT/MPC lowered the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by a more than expected 300 bps to 43% today, vs consensus and our expectation of 250 bps. The O/N lending and borrowing rates were also lowered by 300 bps (see chart), as the asymmetry of the O/N corridor was maintained, with the former n...
A fair deal?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025
In our recent report on the Philippines’ negotiation with the US government on the level of reciprocal tariff, we argued that only its military and security value could be the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent visit to the US. And he should not squander it. Its small trade su...
The government released its bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, House President Motta suspended all committee meetings, and a special committee on app-based work has been created
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2025
Last night, the federal government released the Revenue and Expenditure Report for the third two-month period of the year and announced the unfreezing of R$20.7 billion from the 2025 budget. The government had frozen R$31.3 billion back in May. Lower House President Hugo Motta suspended all commi...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Jul 9 National Railway Company: Kazakhstan and China have signed an agreement on comprehensive strategic cooperation, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan plans to maintain oil production at the current level for the rest of the...
"I thought I won!"
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jul 2025
From all indications, it is Manila's military and security value that was the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent US visit. The country's trade value added is minuscule. Its exports to the US, mainly consisting of semi-con and other electronic products, have very close substitu...
Zelenskiy dismantles anti-corruption independence in power consolidation push
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has behaved poorly in recent weeks. The President’s Office (through the Cabinet) derailed the reboot of the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine (ESBU) by rejecting an independent candidate selected by a commission that included international experts. The ESBU reboot ...