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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

The oil price remains volatile. In early October, it moved up as OPEC+ decided to cut production, then it slid on the back of general fears of potential economic recession. The US decision to sell 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve also influenced the market. The Russi...

The NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 25%, slightly improves macro-forecast
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

The NBU Board meeting did not bring any surprises today. The prime rate was left unchanged at 25% and the NBU even stated that further increase of prime rate is possible if needed. At the same time the NBU this time was more optimistic on Ukraine macroeconomic prospects improving GDP slightly est...

The MNB base rate ceased to be the main sterilisation rate today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

It has been an open question since the announcement of the current 18% O/N deposit rate on October 14, how exactly the MNB would sort out the the conflict between this new instrument and the 1-week deposit facility, so far the main sterilisation instrument used by the Bank, on which the 13% base ...

Polls continue to show a decrease in the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro, and the STF approved Lula’s coalition request for city halls to provide free transportation on election day
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2022 · 1 response

The Quaest/Genial poll previously showed a distance of eight points. Now it is five. Datafolha was showing a distance of 5. Now it is four – just above the margin of error. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) decided to authorize city halls and bus companies to offer free public transportation for th...

In a hurry to please the boss
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 150 bps to 10.5% (simple) today, versus the consensus view of a 100 bps cut. That the cut is deeper should not be all that surprising, however. Since President Erdogan called for lower rates and indicated a single digit rate as the objec...

Gas hub in Turkey
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

On October 19 Turkey announced that it shall create a gas hub with Russia in Turkey. This was reported by a Russian state news agency. President Erdogan said that the EU can obtain Russian gas from a Turkish hub as long as supplies to the EU are disrupted due to the Ukraine Conflict and broken Ba...

Kazakhstan macro: Growth remains moderate as the economic climate is affected by shocks
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Oct 2022

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator that aggregates activities in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transport, and communications was up in 9M22 by 3.5% y-o-y. In 8M22, it grew by 3.7% y-o-y, therefore, pointing to some deceleration in Septe...

Putin declares complete martial law in occupied Ukraine, limited version in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2022

On October 19 the president made the announcement. Some war hawks had been agitating for this move for months. Martial law means curfews, military censorship, travel restrictions and residency restrictions. This does not suggest that the war is going well 8 months into the conflict. The Federal C...

Weekly inflation is moderate, inflation y-o-y likely to fall by 100 bps in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on October 10, inflation was at 0.03% w-o-w. Inflation MTD reached 0.06%, and the YTD inflation moved to 10.53% on that date. Despite high uncertainty and the tense geopolitical situation, there are no signs that inflation may accelerate significantly. I...

When governments talk, markets react
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 19 Oct 2022 · 1 response

At the beginning of 2022, Colombian Treasury Bills (TES - for its acronym in Spanish) outstanding were close to COP 400 trillion (tn); currently, they are reaching almost COP 450 tn. Hence, the government has issued TES handsomely, continuing a high-sloping trend exhibited since COVID hit the eco...

The latest polls still show a decrease in the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro, Lula will publish a letter to evangelicals today, and the urgent status request in the House for Bill 96/11 on polling institutes is approved
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2022

According to the poll published recently by PoderData, former President Lula has 48% of intended votes, and President Jair Bolsonaro has 44%, while 5% of voters intend to vote blank or null, and 3% do not know. Today, at 10 a.m., Lula will publish a “Letter to Evangelicals” during an event in São...

Russians angry at draftees' being sent to battle without training or equipment
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2022

Soldiers have been killed within 10 days of being mobilized. Families have complained that their loved ones have been sent to the front without any refresher training. Most Russian men do a year of army training at the age of 18. Draftees are supposed to be given a 2 week course to bring back the...

Iran to sell more weapons to Russia: Western reports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Oct 2022

On October 17 the Washington Post said that anonymous NATO intelligence sources have said that Iran is boosting arms sales to Russia. Deliveries include two kinds of surface-to-surface missiles and attack drones. Iran has been selling arms to Russia since August 2022. The short-range ballistic mi...

The latest polls show a decrease in the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro, the government issued early payments of the Truck Driver Aid and Taxi Driver Aid, and Lula will be interviewed on a podcast tonight and Bolsonaro holds rallies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2022

Two polls on the presidential election were published yesterday, showing a reduction in the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro in the runoff round. The government continues in its effort to produce positive news. The Caixa Econômica Federal issued early payments of the Truck Driver Aid and Taxi ...

Three lost years and still lost
CHILE · In Brief · 18 Oct 2022

Today marks the third anniversary of Chile’s social explosion. Much has happened since and because of the October uprising: the rise of inflation, a failed constitutional process, the election of Gabriel Boric. Sadly, the demands that the protests brought to the fore are far from being addressed,...

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