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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

More power supply worries
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

In a commentary last year on domestic inflation concerns,[1] we cited the sufficiency of electric power supply as one of the risks that have macro level implications.[2]Barely two weeks into the new year, we are seeing just how idiosyncratic the risks affecting this complex sector have become. As...

We expect a rate hike on April 11
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Jan 2022

1. December’s CPI surprised on the upside as core inflation accelerated to 2.7% y/y. 2. We expect inflation to reach 1.7% this year on the back of wage pressure and higher rental prices, partially offset by shekel appreciation. 3. We expect the BoI to hike on April 11 due to high inflat...

Moldova struggles to pay for gas
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

On January 13 the country paid its gas debt to Gazprom for gas bought in December 2021. Moldova is the second poorest country in Europe. It has trouble paying for gas as world prices are sky high.In October 2021 there was a state of emergency over gas prices. The country started buying gas from E...

Armenia and Turkey negotiate normalization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

On January 14 the former deadly foes met at Moscow. They have agreed to a further round of talks. The date and venue are not yet set. Both have said there are no preconditions. Russia was happy to host talks. Armenia is heavily reliant on Russian largesse. Russia does not want to see a diminution...

Former Ukrainian President flies home despite treason charges
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

Petro Poroshenko returned on January 17. The treason charge is because he allegedly facilitated coal deals with pro-Moscow rebels. He says the charge is politically motivated. Hundreds of well wishers greeted him. Poroshenko said that Ukraine must stand up to Russia.Prosecutors are seeking an arr...

​Apparent Houthi attacks on Abu Dhabi highlights vulnerabilities to drones
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

Preliminary indications suggest that fires in Abu Dhabi, which killed three people at a fuel depot and disrupted the airport, were caused by drones. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. The market impact so far has been relatively muted but could become more significant if ther...

More Nazarbayev relatives being removed from posts confirms his loss of power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

On January 15 two sons-in-law of the Leader of the Nation lost their positions. Kairat Sharipbayev was head of QazaqGas. He is married to Darigha Nazarbayeva - the eldest daughter of the Leader of the Nation. Dimash Dosanov was in the KazTranOil. Timur Kulibaev (another son in law) has been remov...

First thoughts on 2022
TURKEY · Forecast · 16 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

We deviate a little from our quarterly report format in this round because of the extremely uncertain context, sharing some preliminary thoughts and qualitative scenarios for 2022 instead. The ongoing “experiment” around the New Economic Model (NEM), which is unsustainable, in our view -- beca...

We expect a rate hike on April 11th
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2022

Inflation surprises on the upsideo Inflation in December increased by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.1%), and 2.8% y/y. Core inflation increased by 2.7%.o Inflation surprises were mostly broad-based, with housing rental prices accelerating to 3.3% y/y (from 2.9% last month).o We expect inflati...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC ministers visit China, pipeline consortium bond disappoints, Qatar Q3 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jan 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases rose by two-thirds to new records, although deaths remain low. * Oil rose to $85, close to its highest since 2014, despite a resolution to Libya’s production outage and hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks ...

Inflation remained at a 14-year peak in December, beating forecasts once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2022

Forecasts by private sector analysts (with a median value of 7.1% yoy) and by the MNB (6.9% yoy given in the Q4 inflation report of late December) were defeated again by the actual 7.4% yoy headline rate of CPI-inflation in December, as reported today. This was the same number as in November, whi...

Webinar Replay: Turkey 2022 Outlook Webinar
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2022

​​Cut through the uncertainty and understand what's ahead for Turkey in 2022. Visit our events calendar to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada discussing Turkey’s macro and political outlook.

Market volatility increases as geopolitical noise hit Russia
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2022

The Russian economy is waking up after a long New Year holiday break in a volatile environment caused by geopolitical noise. Compared to December 31, the Russian 10Y OFZ yields jumped by around 100 bps on January 14. The Russian ruble nearly attained almost the R/$ 77 benchmark on January 5, ahea...

President Bolsonaro decides that the Office of the Chief of Staff must approve of the management of the public budget, the issue of the public servants’ salary raise continues to cause problems for the government, and another poll will be released today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jan 2022

Bolsonaro’s decision undoubtedly strengthens the power of the PP party in relation to the budget issue and reduces the centrality of the decision of the Ministry of the Economy. However, the decision makes sense; the Chief of Staff is part of the Budget Board, which deals with issues related to t...

High inflation is likely to support a rate hike in April
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jan 2022 · 1 response

December’s CPI surprises on the upside Following two months of downward inflation surprises, inflation in December reached 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.1%) and 2.8% y/y (up from 2.4% last month).Food prices surprised on the upside, increasing by 0.5% m/m and 3.5% y/y. Rental prices (OER) inc...

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