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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Consumer inflation results with 10.0% ytd in 2021, disinflation is on track
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Jan 2022

Consumer inflation ended the year with 10.0% ytd or 9.4% y/y. The result is in the middle between the NBU forecast (9.6% ytd or 9.3% y/y) and our own estimate (+10.3% ytd or +9.4% y/y). Food prices (+12.7% ytd) and transportation costs (+11.1% ytd) are responsible for 2/3 of consumer inflation th...

A difficult start to the year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jan 2022

Central Bank employees meet with the president of the bank, Roberto Campos Neto, to discuss salary raises. The results of three polls on the presidential election are expected to be published. On Tuesday, the IBGE announces the 2021 accumulated inflation index (IPCA). This week's Talking Point...

The Risk of Recession in 2022
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jan 2022

In a recent interview, Paulo Pichetti, a member of CODACE, stated there is no way to classify the small declines of GDP in the second (-0.4%) and third (-0.1%) quarters of 2021 as a recession. Among the reasons, he mentioned the noise introduced in the seasonal patterns (not yet captured by the r...

2021 exceeded expectations, but structural reforms loom
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 10 Jan 2022

Performance in 2021 exceeded expectations in terms of economic growth, the exchange rate and accumulation of international reserves. The same was not true, though, for inflation, which failed to stay within the target range, while the NFPS deficit ended at around 3% of GDP, similar to the level c...

Three polls will be published this week, the public servants issue remains, and the government may make a decision on the debt refinancing program for micro and small businesses and individual micro-entrepreneurs (MEI)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jan 2022

On Wednesday, the Banco Genial/Quaest Pesquisas poll results should be released. On Thursday, the Exame Magazine/Instituto Ideia poll results and on Friday, the XP/Ipespe poll results should also be released. The polls are expected to show that the polarization between former President Lula (PT) ...

Politics: In 2022 AMLO looks to consolidate his 4T and ensure it endures beyond 2024
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jan 2022

With the 2024 elections just two years away, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is increasingly focused on ensuring his legacy through consolidating his Fourth Transformation (4T) project. The next battle is over the presidential recall referendum, pushed not by voters discontented with AMLO’s...

Economics: The Mexican economy faces key challenges in 2022
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jan 2022

The most important economic challenges facing the Mexican economy in 2022 are rising inflation and sluggish growth. These will be coupled with the weakening of public finances and the uncertainty fueled by how the government’s energy policy will end up being defined. The first challenge is inf...

The ANC acknowledges the deterioration of the Party during its 110th anniversary celebrations, but will it enact the necessary reforms?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jan 2022

In sticking with tradition, and despite South Africa’s fourth wave of Covid-19, fueled by the Omicron variant, the governing African National Congress (ANC) had its annual celebration of the founding of the party (January 8, 1912). Since 1972, the party has used these annual celebrations as an op...

Business/consumer sentiment remains elevated, so far
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jan 2022

1. Both business and consumer sentiment remained fairly strong in December, despite Omicron, but January will probably witness some decline. 2. Wage growth moderated in October, supportive of modest inflationary pressure. 3. The expansion of the monetary base slowed in 2021, following ...

Industrial output and prospects seem improving
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jan 2022

The performance of the industrial sector has been a genuine weak point lately, because of the global supply problem related to semiconductors, hitting car manufacturing and to a lesser extent the electronics industry.Against this backdrop, the latest output and PMI data reflects material improvem...

Omicron watch 2
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Jan 2022

In the span of one week, new Covid19 cases spiked from a 7-day average of less than 2k as of Jan 2 to over 16k as of Jan 9. In the latest batch of 48 Covid19 cases sequenced, the Philippine Genome Center detected the Omicron variant in 29 of the samples, making it the dominant strain. Although Me...

Business/consumer sentiment remains elevated, so far
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Jan 2022

Business and consumer confidence remains strong in DecemberThe Business Tendency Survey for December reflects expectations of further expansion in all sectors, except for the hotel sector (due to incoming flight restrictions).The Poalim consumer confidence index improved slightly in December and ...

2022: Something has to give
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

The politics section of the first Weekly report of the year is dedicated to establishing a road map for 2022, as well as going over our main scenario and predictions. President Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance didn’t receive a windfall in polls despite massive fiscal largesse, as rampant poverty ...

Kazakh former security chief arrested
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2022

On January 8 Karimov Massimov was taken into custody and accused of being a traitor. He was once Prime Minister and head of the internal intelligence agency (NBK) since 2016. On January 5 he was fired as chairman of the NBK by President Tokayev. Several years ago it had even been rumored that Mas...

Russian macro: recent Rosstat revision promises stronger growth in 2021-2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jan 2022

Rosstat announced at the very end of December 2021 that it had revised Russia’s annual GDP statistics for 2019-2020. The quarterly GDP numbers, however, have not been upgraded either for 9M21 or previous periods. Therefore, the revised annual numbers do not match the available quarterly statistic...

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