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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The MPC pauses, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jan 2022 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 14% today, as expected, and as the Bank itself had signaled earlier. The statement continues to cast inflation largely as a transitory affair, related, most notably, to unhealthy pricing behavior in the F/X market -- which needs...

Minister Rosa Weber meets with federal public servant leaders to discuss salary raises, the PSB and PT consider a possible alliance, and a new poll on the presidential succession is expected today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2022

The public servant leaders will ask for a clarification on the government’s deadline to grant the raise to other groups before being prevented by electoral legislation. They should also ask that, if a raise is granted, it be given to all groups. Bolsonaro has said that it will not be possible to ...

Unchanged deposit rate and a temporary measure to fix basic food prices
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jan 2022

The MNB has left the fixed interest rate for 1-week deposits for today's weekly tender unchanged at 4%. This means that there has not been any sterilisation rate increase since the start of this year.This decision seems to substantiate the suspected rule of thumb that the Bank refrains from raisi...

The public servants’ mobilization in favor of a salary raise had low participation, the Minister of the Economy discusses Rio de Janeiro’s Fiscal Recovery Plan, and the left moves against the Lula-Alckmin alliance
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jan 2022

The government leader in the House called the event "weak". The workers of the Federal Revenue Service did not join the movement, which was a surprise. Representatives of civil servants will meet with the Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Rosa Weber, on Thursday, to clarify the legalit...

The federal budget posts surplus despite several amendments of expenditures
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2022

According to Minfin’s preliminary budget execution statistics, the federal budget posted a surplus of around R0.5 trln, which should be slightly below 0.4% of GDP. The figure looks lower than we expected, but it only happened because expenditures were suddenly increased to R24.8 trln. A couple of...

US Secretary of State in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2022

On January 19 Antony Blinken arrived in Kyiv for talks. The US warned Ukraine that Russia could attack any moment. Diplomatic efforts between the West and Russia have come to nought. Ukrainians are hurt that the US negotiated about them in their absence. However, the US made no concession to Russ...

Nazarbayev says there is no power struggle in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2022

On January 18 the former president made his first TV appearance since December 2021. There has been speculation that he had left the country. Nazarbayev said that Tokayev has ''full power'' and confirmed that Tokayev is chair of the Security Council.Nazarbayev said he is a pensioner and still liv...

Economics: Mexican economy weak and still struggling to recover pre-pandemic levels
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jan 2022

Economic indicators corresponding to 4Q21 that have been released in the past few weeks project a weakening of the economy. This is reflected in both important components of aggregate demand as well as in production and services indexes. The most recent results not only imply lower growth at the ...

PMI declines in December
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

The PMI declined by 2.5 points in December to 47.8, reflecting a contraction in activity for the first time in four months.The main component which declined sharply was the production output component, and this could be due to spiking Covid infections keeping some workers at home. The domestic or...

Strong 2021 current account amid growing non-energy exports, higher energy prices, and a not-too-negative services balance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

The Central bank reported that the Russian current account surplus reached $120.3 bn in 2021, which was a bit less than expected as the investment income balance turned more negative ($41.6 bn in 2021 versus $34.1 bn in 2020). Russia’s trade surplus widened to $185.9 bn in 2021 as exports reached...

Flash report: After four months of negotiations, the government and Minera Panama agree on a new contract
PANAMA · Report · 18 Jan 2022

The contract between Minera Panamá, S.A., owner and operator of the largest copper mine in the country, was renegotiated yesterday, after more than four months of discussions between an ad-hoc commission appointed by the Cortizo administration and representatives of the company. The proposal acce...

Pressure on the Federal Government increases, public servants mobilize in favor of salary raises, and congressional leaders discuss a solution to the fuel price issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2022

The demands on the government are numerous: increasing the number of families benefiting from Auxílio Brasil, correcting the income tax table, approving a new Refis, salary increases for the civil service, and the issue of fuel prices. When the National Congress resumes activity, these pressures ...

Politics: Morena remains top dog, but faces serious challenges ahead of 2024
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jan 2022

Morena is still clearly the front-runner in public opinion polls. However, recent developments have highlighted internal divisions and public dissatisfaction with its elected representatives that could complicate the party’s prospects in the 2024 presidential elections. Recent public sparring ...

​Inflation and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jan 2022

Brazil’s inflation in 2021 amounted to 10.1%, only behind Turkey and Argentina. The good news is that with the Central Bank continuing to “do whatever it takes”, inflation will decline during 2022, but the central target will only be attained again in 2023. To achieve this outcome, the SELIC rate...

Castillo realigns political support; mining protests introduce risks to growth
PERU · Report · 18 Jan 2022

The rapid fall in President Pedro Castillo’s popularity since he formed his government on July 28th has been surprising. Most previous presidents have either continued to sail for a longer “honeymoon period” on the wave of the high popularity that carried them into office, or have at least able t...

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