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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Demand-side reform and long-term GDP growth
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Dec 2020 · 3 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * In its meeting last Friday the Politburo coined a new term, "demand-side reform", as something it would implement along with the “supply-side reforms” it has long promised. This is probably going to be a very important policy innovation that finall...

Nobody won
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Almost simultaneous electoral events organized by the Maduro regime and the democratic opposition revealed two grave trends: voting is no longer an efficient means to express the will of the people in Venezuela, and the population is barely connected to politics and political leadership. Moreover...

Nord Stream 2 construction hampered by technical difficulties
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Russia is determined to complete the undersea gas pipeline to Germany in 2021. US sanctions have meant that most suitable ships cannot be hired for this.A Russian nuclear powered ship due to take part in the construction cannot participate in the project due to suffering damage. It needs repairs....

Economy rebounds despite political headwinds
PERU · Report · 16 Dec 2020

A month after the mid-November political crisis that led to street protests and the election of the caretaker Francisco Sagasti government, an uneasy truce has held in Congress. While political brinkmanship has continued, confrontation has eased. We will first discuss the positive developments, a...

New Russian aircraft engine has its maiden flight
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

On December 15 an MC-21 passenger plane flew for the first time with a Russian made engine. Rostec has been keen to promote domestically made aircraft engines. The engine used was a PD-14. An MC-21 is a plane made by Irkut which is owned by Rostec. The plane can also use a US made engine: PW 1400...

Budget 2021 approved with 5.5% of GDP deficit
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Yesterday, on Dec 15, parliament voted in spending plan 2021 with 5.5% of GDP central budget deficit.The final document has not been released year but it is expected to be close to the one we analyzed recently. The authorities claim the spending plan was approved by the IMF but we did not see any...

U-turn in demand for the hryvnia-denominated state bonds
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Yesterday, on Dec 15, all of us were shocked to see the huge demand for hryvnia-denominated state bonds that MinFin enjoyed. Just for one day the authorities attracted UAH 42.1 billion (nearly $1.5 billion), $266.1 million and EUR56.7 million. To compare, for 11M2020 MinFin managed to raise to co...

November’s CPI in line with expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Inflation in November declined by 0.2% m/m and declined by 0.6% y/y (from -0.8% y/y in October). This was in line with market expectations (and mine). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) moved higher to -0.2% y/y from -0.4% last month, but remains in negative territory. We...

Azerbaijan claims 4 troops killed on border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

On December 13 Baku said that 4 of its soldiers were killed by Armenians. Armenia has not confirmed this. Baku has not provided any corroborating information such as the location of the deaths. Baku and Yerevan have exchanged accusations of breaking the ceasefire. The Armenians said that the Azer...

Q3'20: Worse than expected
PANAMA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

Third quarter data confirm our gloomy forecast for 2020: 23.6% drop in Q3 and 20.4% up to September.Today, the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) presented the results for Q3. They were pessimistic as expected, and more. Real GDP fell by 23.6% compared with Q3 2019, which itself w...

​Russian industry: decent performance in manufacturing, mining is still suppressed by the OPEC+ deal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial output was down by 2.6% and 3.0% y-o-y in November and in 11M20, which looks slightly better than could be expected earlier. An upward revision of October statistics is one of the reasons. Rosstat revised up October statistics in manufacturing, but at the same tim...

No action from today's Monetary Council, statement seems moderately hawkish
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

The Monetary Council has kept interest rates and other policies unchanged at its regular monthly rate-setting meeting today. The statement appears moderately hawkish, saying:- the rundown of Covid and the subsequent economic recovery is full of uncertainties, which requires more caution than usua...

BCV gold remains blocked at BOE
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

The appeal over which administration controls the Venezuelan gold held in custody by the Bank of England (BOE) is heading to the U.K.'s highest court and the case may not be heard until at least October or November 2021. Neither party can access the 31 tons of Venezuelan gold held by BOE until th...

IMF − the star of Year 2020
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Dec 2020

Official information for the deficits of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector shows that the Republic has complied with the quantitative goals set by the IMF program for 2020. In fact, the cumulative change in the deficit between January-June and January-September for the Ce...

Politics: Coalition could be a game changer in 2021
MEXICO · Report · 14 Dec 2020

The December 5 announcement by the PAN, PRI and PRD that they hope to jointly field candidates in next year’s elections could be a game changer, but the burgeoning lash-up still faces many hurdles, starting with the pushback each of the organizations is likely to get from many of their own member...

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