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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 2 -
Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jun 5
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 4
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jun 6
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jun 16
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South Africa databank Jun 9
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jun 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
An ominous collection of threats: Omicron, microchips, inflation, fiscal policy and the EU
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Dec 2021
Unlike in previous months, there is some important good news to report on Covid. The local 4th wave of the disease seems to have passed its peak in late November. At present, all leading Covid indicators are improving, essentially thanks to the re-enforcement of face masks and to more effective v...
Inflation in Israel remains low compared to most countries
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Dec 2021
Highlights: Low inflation in November: *Headline inflation in November inched higher to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, in line with our forecast but at the low end of consensus. *Core inflation has remained stable at 2.1% since September. *Housing rental prices accelerated in November, offset by a ...
Will Beijing turn the taps back on?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Dec 2021
The Evergrande default took the market by surprise as central government support (at least until recently) was widely expected. Since then, China has issued mixed signals about its plans for handling the Evergrande crisis. On one hand, the central bank cut the Required Reserve Ratio, releasing 1 ...
Boric wins. What now?
CHILE · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021
Gabriel Boric’s victory in Sunday’s run-off election is an amazing political and personal story, from the time he emerged a as a student leader over ten years ago, to his surprise win in his coalition’s primaries last July. And now, at 35 years of age, with the largest amount of votes any winner ...
Heads Up: Anything can happen this week, but probably nothing will
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021 · 2 responses
On Friday, the main Turkish stock index collapsed suddenly, triggering two trading halts, as anecdotal evidence emerged of increased cash withdrawals from banks. It is difficult to imagine Turkish financial markets finding an equilibrium level this week, as first economy czar Mr. Nurettin Nebati,...
Inflation in Israel remains low compared to most countries
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021
Low inflation in November Headline inflation in November inched higher to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, in line with our forecast but at the low end of consensus. Core inflation has remained stable at 2.1% since September. Housing rental prices accelerated in November, offset by a price decline in clothing...
Tensions and discussions over Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021
On December 17 a Ukrainian soldier was killed by pro-Russian rebels. Russia has reportedly massed 100,000 troops on Ukraine's eastern frontier. NATO analysts said this could reach 175,000 in January.Moscow laments that NATO has spurned its offer to de-escalate the tensions. NATO said it will not ...
Some initial consequences of the political power shift in Congress
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Dec 2021
Both the Supreme Court’s declaring the reform of the Council of the Magistracy unconstitutional and the Lower House’s rejection of the 2022 budget are two clear signals of the power shift in the Congress after the mid-term elections.Although the underlying risk is that of a radicalization of the ...
GULF WEEKLY: GCC summit, Saudi Q3 GDP, Israeli PM visits UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Dec 2021 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and IEA have concluded Omicron won’t have much of an impact on oil demand. * The GCC summit was a fairly standard affair, with the most notable features being King Salman’s absence and a softer approach to Iran in th...
The House approved the bill to create a new debt installment program for micro and small companies, Congress meets today to analyze presidential vetoes, and Congress will vote on the 2022 Federal Budget next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2021
The House approved the bill that creates a new debt installment program for micro and small companies participating in the Simples Nacional, including individual micro-entrepreneurs (MEI) and companies in judicial recovery. An agreement was not reached for the approval of the Refis, which will ha...
Election Day minus two
CHILE · Report · 17 Dec 2021 · 2 responses
This Sunday’s runoff presidential vote Chile will close a long electoral year, after having elected, over the course of 2021, a constitutional convention, local and regional governments, primary contenders, deputies and senators, and presidential candidates. Now it’s down to just two, José Antoni...
The 1-week deposit rate went to 3.6% today, just as promised
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2021
Today's 1-week deposit tender has brought about to the second MNB interest rate decision this week, which is kind of a nice performance in itself.This time around, the 1-week deposit rate, which is now the effective sterilisation rate, rose by 30 bps, to 3.6%. This was no surprise at all, after M...
The Precatórios PEC has been concluded in Congress, André Fufuca made changes to the Refis bill, and the vote on the Federal Budget has been postponed until next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2021
The House finalized the vote on the PEC, which will be promulgated today, at 2 p.m. There was only one change in relation to the text that was approved in the Senate. The vote on the Refis bill is scheduled for today. The rapporteur, André Fufuca, made changes to the text to reduce the resistance...
Done - and now what?
TURKEY · Report · 16 Dec 2021 · 2 responses
The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate (the weekly repo rate) by another 100 bps today to 14%, broadly in line with expectations (or shall we say, as feared?) bringing the cumulative cuts since September to 500 bps (see chart).
Germany expels 2 Russian diplomats over murder
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2021
On December 14 Berlin said the two were involved in the murder of a Chechen commander who was killed in 2019. Germany says that the Chechen was killed by order of the Russian government. Russian national Vadim Krasikov was sentenced to life imprisonment for the murder.The Kremlin denounced the tr...