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Webinar Replay - China’s Outlook in the Time of Trade Wars 
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 02 May 2025

With an escalating trade war between China and the US, how will China navigate the situation and what will the implications be for its economy and global trade? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Michael Pettis discussing China's economic outlook in the time of...

Israeli geopolitics: Gaza deadlock, political tensions, and shifting regional dynamics
ISRAEL · Report · 02 May 2025

Key takeaways from this report: Israel’s political and public arenas remain turbulent, marked by tensions between the judiciary and the government, widespread frustration over the ongoing hostage crisis, and the unresolved issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription. Despite these pressures, early e...

Does the mild depreciation of the peso after the (partial) elimination of the cepo mean that the peso is no longer overvalued?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 May 2025

In a recent report (see https://globalsourcepartners.c...), I explained the analytical difference between the nominal exchange rate (NER) and the real one (RER) for those who needed a refresher tutorial on the subject. In short, the NER is the relative price between two assets (foreign and domest...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Pemex Q1 2025: Financial Results and Oil&Gas Production Decline Continues; Marginal Improvement in Refining
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 May 2025

In the first quarter of 2025, Pemex reported mixed operational results. On one hand, liquid hydrocarbon production fell by 11.3% compared to the same period in 2024, natural gas output declined by 8.7%, and crude oil exports dropped by 22.8%. On the other hand, the refining segment showed modest ...

The IMF says “hmmmm”
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 May 2025 · 1 response

The purpose of the IMF’s flexible line of credit is to help countries with generally sound fundamentals meet balance of payments needs, and boost market confidence during periods of heightened market risk. That is, it was created as a “spare tire” or a bumper to help eligible countries navigate t...

Apr CCA highlights: Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan keep policy rates unchanged, Armenia concludes 5th review of IMF's SBA, Georgia defies expectations and grows strongly, by 9.3 % YoY in 1Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 May 2025

I review key economic and political events in the CCA in April: Armenia: CPI rises to 3.3% YoY in Mar Armenia: Monthly economic indicator grows by 3.7% YoY in Mar Armenia: IMF and Armenia reach staff level agreement on the Fifth Review of the SBA Armenia: FX reserves jump in Mar on Eurobon...

The Russian economy decelerates amid unclear prospects for the rest of the year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 May 2025

Rosstat reported that in 1Q25, industrial output grew by a mere 1.1% y-o-y as in March alone it was up by 0.8% y-o-y. Seasonally adjusted industrial output contracted last month by 0.7% m-o-m. The mining segment was down y-o-y by 3.7% and 4.1% in 1Q25 and March alone. This contraction stemmed mai...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 May 2025

- Progress on Ukraine War peace deal stalls despite numerous meetings and proposals by all sides. - Russia launches minor offensive; gains very limited. - North Korean military presence in Russia praised by Putin and Gerasimov. - Geopolitical shift—Central Asian countries f...

Improved U.S.–Ukraine resource deal offers hope amid uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 May 2025

The U.S. and Ukraine have signed a resource deal. At the time of writing, the document had not yet been released, but numerous comments have emerged from individuals who have reviewed it. According to these comments, the document remains fairly general, but it outlines a well-balanced framework. ...

South Africa’s Budget 2025 uncertainty continues
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Apr 2025

The turbulence surrounding South Africa’s 2025 Budget has shown no signs of easing. Initially postponed from its traditional February slot to March 12—marking an unprecedented delay—the Budget has continued to face intense political debate, particularly over the proposed value-added tax (VAT) inc...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY according to timely figures
MEXICO · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY due to industrial contraction and weakening services According to timely figures from INEGI, Mexico’s GDP in Q1 2025 posted weak annual growth of 0.6% (seasonally adjusted), similar to the previous quarter and nearly one percentage point...

The União Progressista merger party has been formed, and Congress should resume at full speed next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2025

Yesterday, April 29, the União Brasil and Progressista Party (PP) formally launched a party federation, signaling support for the opposition despite both parties' holding ministerial positions in President Lula’s government. The federation will initially be jointly led by PP President Ciro Noguei...

After Trump's tariffs
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Apr 2025

The world was shaken by the tariffs imposed by US President Trump. While they may take time to be fully implemented (if they are fully implemented) the news has hit exporters around the world, with the export performance of each country under close review to see how big the impact of these tariff...

Negative GDP growth reported for Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Preliminary, seasonally and day-adjusted GDP data shows -0.2% qoq, -0.4% yoy real growth for Q1, as reported this morning. This came after +0.6% qoq, +0.1% yoy in Q4, and 0.5% growth in full-year 2024. In an unusually brief statement, KSH only said that Q1 growth was supported by services but hel...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Apr 17 The Parliament: The Upper Chamber of the Parliament of Kazakhstan has ratified the agreement with the CIS on free trade in the services sector. Ministry of Trade: Kazakhstan has not yet discussed the issue of retaliatory tariff increases on imports. President: During a telephone conversati...

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