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Q4 Inflation Report: Paving the way for further cuts
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2019

The CBRT released this year's final Inflation Report today. As expected, the 2019 yearend inflation forecast was revised down to 12% (midpoint of 11.2%-12.8% band) from 13.9%, which is also in line with the New Economy Program forecast released earlier. The 2020 yearend forecast remained unchange...

Excellent moves
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Oct 2019 · 1 response

President Joko Widodo announced the line-up of the Indonesian cabinet for 2019-2024 just a few days after his inauguration as president. His selection of ministers truly reflects his courage and independence. From various angles, this new cabinet can be considered a "dream team" because the chall...

LEBANON: Resignation gambit means new Hariri government is needed to avert a crisis
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 31 Oct 2019

The resignation of the Lebanese PM, Saad al-Hariri, is the political wildcard that we were concerned about in our 22 Oct analysis. However, the most likely scenario is that Hariri will actually remain on as prime minister with the authority to rejig the cabinet slightly, including bringing in som...

​Costa Rica: Rodrigo Chaves designated as Finance Minister
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 30 Oct 2019

Rodrigo Chaves, who was serving as country director of the World Bank Indonesia since August 2003, has been designated today as the new Finance Minister of Costa Rica, to substitute Rocío Aguilar, who resigned last week. Chaves, who holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Ohio State University, has been ...

Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement reveals a deteriorating fiscus amid low growth and non-stop Eskom bailouts
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Oct 2019

During the past few weeks government has been particularly busy introducing policy and plans that are meant to address many of South Africa’s current economic challenges in the lead up to today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). The MTBPS, tabled annually during end-October by the Min...

5 Russian mercenaries killed in Mozambique
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Oct 2019

On October 27 five Russian mercenaries were reportedly killed in an ambush in Mozambique. In September 2019 it is reported that 200 Russian private military contractors from Wagner Group arrived in the African country. It is said that the Russian PMCs are there to fight Islamic extremists. Mozamb...

GUATEMALA: Downside risks rising
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Oct 2019

As Guatemala’s president-elect Alejandro Giammattei and his team prepared to take over the Executive Branch in January, an early October meeting with a visiting IMF mission addressed the state of the economy, and challenges ahead. Though the mission reaffirmed its 3.4% GDP growth estimate for 201...

​US sanctions: Race against time
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Oct 2019 · 1 response

On Tuesday US House of Representatives passed a resolution recognizing the “so called” genocide of Armenians at the hands of the Ottoman Empire, as well a bill to impose sanctions on Turkey for Operation Peace Spring. It is not certain whether Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell will put it, o...

BAHRAIN: Austerity will fall short of targets and more Gulf funding will be needed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Oct 2019

We don’t think that Bahrain’s ambitious Fiscal Balance Program will come close to its targets due to austerity fatigue and sharply lower oil prices. Instead, the deficit will remain around 5-7% of GDP, and debt-to-GDP will rise to 110% by 2022, requiring about $15bn in financing in 2019-22. B...

CHILE: ​New cabinet, old problem
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Oct 2019

Sebastián Piñera continued with his efforts to address the ten-day old protest movement by announcing a major cabinet shuffle. This was not unexpected. The ouster of Interior Minister (and presidential cousin) Andres Chadwick was one of the principal demands of last Friday’s million-person march....

Xi Jinping versus Deng Xiaoping
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Oct 2019 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: Although I personally do not expect anything new to come out of the Fourth Plenum, currently in session, that suggests that there will be any change in Xi’s approach to leadership, I can assure my reader that I would have no way of knowing whether or...

SA Government moves to deal with Eskom and energy conundrum
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Oct 2019

Minister Pravin Gordhan today released his government’s Special Policy Paper on Eskom, its restructuring, and the country’s energy transition over the next decade. Key and critical interventions are as follows: Eskom’s debt will be restructured in consultation with the stakeholders, but underpinn...

Medium-term effects of a long-term protest
CHILE · Report · 28 Oct 2019

To the deteriorated external environment, we must add the wave of protests. So far, we do not see reasons for major concern, at least from a medium-term macroeconomic perspective, although October’s Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) will certainly be considerably lower than it might have been. ...

Pension Reform ‒ what is yet to come and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brazil after a trip to Asia and the Middle East. In Congress, expectations are growing regarding the government’s post-Pension agenda, which includes items related to the Federative Pact, the golden rule, constitutional funds and Administrative Reform. On Wedne...

Economics: Risk of ineffective countercyclical spending plans
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2019

In the context of the low economic growth expected for 2019 and 2020, and reduced public finance margins, the finance ministry has announced its intention to introduce a countercyclical fiscal mechanism that would redefine the function of the Budgetary Revenue Stabilization Fund and the possibili...

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