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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Vizcarra triumphed despite legal transgressions
PERU · Report · 25 Oct 2019

The legality of President Martín Vizcarra’s dissolution of Congress has been considered fraught, with legal experts citing elements of constitutional violation. But the idea of dismissing Congress is supported by some 85% of the public, and by the Armed Forces and police. International organizati...

BCV data on inflation and GDP in a nutshell
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Oct 2019

After a five-month pause, BCV released data on inflation through September 2019, and on GDP and balance of payments through the first quarter 2019. This note addresses inflation and GDP. Our comments on balance of payments data will follow. BCV placed January-September 2019 accumulated inflati...

Three growth boosters
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Oct 2019

We are taking note of three announcements this week that are positive news for growth in the short to medium term.First, the one that has the most immediate economic growth impact, is government’s September fiscal report showing an impressive 40% jump in non-interest expenditures. This follows mo...

Russia-Africa Summit leads to agreements
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Oct 2019

The inaugural Russia-African Summit ended on October 24. President Putin was elated that 52 African countries sent delegates - in many cases their presidents. In the Cold War the USSR stood against Western imperialism and apartheid. Russia is the primary successor state of the USSR and so Africa ...

New construction company created by Russian Defense Ministry
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Oct 2019

On October 18 President Putin signed a decree establishing a construction corporation as part of the Ministry of Defense. The aim of this is to allow military construction to be conducted on a not for profit basis. Businesses might overcharge and in this and other ways undermine national security...

Policy debates and poor implementation in South Africa are further delaying economic recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Oct 2019

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: Recovery of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019 helped to contain the growing pessimism regarding the South African (SA) economy. Not only did GDP growth surprise on the upside, but it also meant an aversion of a second technical recession in...

Russia-Africa Summit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Oct 2019

On October 23 a two day Russia-Africa Summit began in Sochi, Russia. China and France also hold summits with African countries. Over 3,000 people attended the summit in Sochi.Items on the agenda included mineral extraction, nuclear energy and arms sales. President Putin was in attendance. Several...

​Predictably, MPC cuts more than predicted
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Oct 2019

At today's meeting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the one-week repo rate (policy rate) by 250 bps to 14% down from 16.5%, bringing the cumulative cuts over the past three meetings to 1000 bps, which takes the policy rate down to its lowest level since May 2018 (see chart below). Today’s ...

The NBU cuts rate by 100 bps down to 15.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Oct 2019

The NBU Board approved policy rate cut by 100 basic points down to 15.5%. Disinflation trend, strong hryvniaas well as encouraging news around Privatbank issue are behind this decision. Initially, the NBU Head Yakiv Smoliy has been defending gradual policy rate cut by 50 bps on every step. But gr...

South Africa’s main opposition party in a leadership crisis as three leaders resign in one week
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Oct 2019

South Africa’s main opposition party is the Democratic Alliance (DA), and yesterday its leader, Mmusi Maimane, resigned as party leader. His resignation follows this week’s earlier resignation by DA’s Herman Mashaba as mayor of Johannesburg (the country’s most prosperous region), of which the DA ...

Minister of Finance resigns
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 23 Oct 2019 · 1 response

The Finance Minister Ms. Rocio Aguilar resigned irrevocably today. Her resignation is not surprising for us. We have been criticizing the government ambivalence in several specific issues related to fiscal discipline and the principles promoted and defended by Ms. Aguilar. Two events were announc...

Strong message from President Office: no revisions on Privat
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Oct 2019

We have the most awaited news of the recent months. President Office, finally, stated openly that “…there is no reason to return the state-owned PrivatBank to its former shareholders”. Here is the statement.It took incredibly long for Zelenskiy to formulate this wording. And the most symbolic thi...

CHILE: Piñera's offer. Too little, too late?
CHILE · In Brief · 23 Oct 2019

President Sebastián Piñera took to national television on Tuesday night to announce a series of measures that seek to do two things; to respond to the demands of protesters who have been on the streets since last Friday, and to save his skin. Whether he succeeded is not, at this point, entirely c...

​Sochi Agreement: Conventional wisdom is dead wrong, but markets are probably right
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2019

I intended to pen this Market Brief much earlier in the day, but the commentary on the Sochi agreement between Presidents Putin and Erdogan is so contrary to how I interpret it, I had to do serious fact checking to make sure my convictions would stand the scrutiny and respect of my audience. At t...

​Gulf support likely if Lebanon's budget mollifies other donors
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Oct 2019

The cabinet approval of an ambitious 2020 budget is an important step but it still needs parliamentary approval and many details remain unclear, particularly on cutting interest on local debt. Its proposal to cut the deficit by 10 percentage to -0.6% of GDP is unrealistic but even going half this...

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