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Politics: The tale and toll of Culiacan
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2019

Myriad doubts remain as to how, when and by whom the October 17 police-military operation in Culiacan was planned and executed, and even who decided to sound retreat and release the prime subject slated for arrest, Ovidio Guzmán, the son of cartel leader Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, who is serving ...

Surgutneftgaz oil shares rise dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019

Between October 23 and 25 shares in Surgutneftgaz rose 25%! Shares in the company also rose very fast at the beginning of September. The September rise was just after Surgutneftgaz registered a subsidiary called Rion to invest in securities. Surgut is the third biggest oil producer in Russia. The...

Public debt growth: The continuous battle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Oct 2019 · 1 response

Brazil’s gross public debt in relation to GDP is only slightly below 80%, nearly 30 percentage points higher than in 2013, and the main culprit for this growth is the uncontrolled increase of spending. The country needs to achieve reforms leading to control of this spending. To help muster politi...

MPC leans towards a rate cut, but much will depend on inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Oct 2019

Two out of five MPC members voted for a rate cut on October 7, and two more envisioned the possible need for loosening in the future. A rate cut is possible on November 25, but could be delayed to Q1 2020 if October's CPI surprises on the upside (as we expect). Labor data is pointing to weaker de...

Russia launches icebreaker warship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019

On October 25 Russia announced the existence of a new combat icebreaker named Ivan Papanin. The purpose of the vessel is to defend the Russian Arctic. Earlier in October over 12 000 troops participated in nuclear war drills in the Russian Far North. Russian claims some of the Arctic Shelf althoug...

It is official, Alberto Fernández is the new president-elect
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019 · 1 response

Past midnight, with 97.1% of the voting tables accounted for and an overall participation rate of 80.9%, it is official now. Alberto Fernández (AF) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) are the new presidents-elect of Argentina. AF managed to obtain 48% of the votes (surpassing the 45% hurdle ...

Gulf weekly: Business environment improves, Saudi replaces foreign minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Oct 2019

Major recent improvements in Gulf business environments were codified in the World Bank’s annual Doing Business Index. Saudi Arabia appointed a new foreign minister and mediated a Yemeni power-sharing deal and Oman held elections. This came amidst another busy week in Middle Eastern politics, wit...

​E-day
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019

Today’s results of the general elections in Argentina, which are expected to be published between 9 pm and midnight, will put an end to the political limbo that emerged after the surprising result of the primaries in August. The electoral outlook that had been previously nourished by polls, drast...

Play it again, Sam
TURKEY · Report · 27 Oct 2019

Operation Peace Spring is not yet over, as Turkey, Kurds and now Assad’s army (and its sponsor Russia) jostle for positioning in the contested geography, with sporadic violations of ceasefire continuing through this Sunday. US soldiers returning won’t help the uneasy truce. According to some n...

Bank of Russia cuts interest rates
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019

On October 25 the Bank of Russia cut the interest rate to 6.5%. The atmosphere of low inflation, poor domestic growth and the distinct possibility of a worldwide economic slowdown all contributed to the decision. The previous interest rate was 7%. The bank also cited the government's tardiness is...

No change in Baa3/Stable sovereign rating from Moody's yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2019

Moody's had a review date for their Baa3/Stable long-term debt rating on the government of Hungary yesterday (October 25). However, the agency essentially skipped the opportunity, by not even picking up the issue in the form of a new piece of evaluation. Instead, Moody's only released a brief sta...

Vizcarra triumphed despite legal transgressions
PERU · Report · 25 Oct 2019

The legality of President Martín Vizcarra’s dissolution of Congress has been considered fraught, with legal experts citing elements of constitutional violation. But the idea of dismissing Congress is supported by some 85% of the public, and by the Armed Forces and police. International organizati...

BCV data on inflation and GDP in a nutshell
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Oct 2019

After a five-month pause, BCV released data on inflation through September 2019, and on GDP and balance of payments through the first quarter 2019. This note addresses inflation and GDP. Our comments on balance of payments data will follow. BCV placed January-September 2019 accumulated inflati...

Three growth boosters
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Oct 2019

We are taking note of three announcements this week that are positive news for growth in the short to medium term.First, the one that has the most immediate economic growth impact, is government’s September fiscal report showing an impressive 40% jump in non-interest expenditures. This follows mo...

Russia-Africa Summit leads to agreements
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Oct 2019

The inaugural Russia-African Summit ended on October 24. President Putin was elated that 52 African countries sent delegates - in many cases their presidents. In the Cold War the USSR stood against Western imperialism and apartheid. Russia is the primary successor state of the USSR and so Africa ...

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