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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Missteps and looming crises
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2019

As President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is faced by the usual dynamics of any new administration – confronted with a situation considerably more complicated than the new head of state and other incoming officials had anticipated, the commission by new officials of numerous unforced errors, and s...

Pension reform calculations and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2019

A week of reduced legislative activity due to the Wednesday holiday (Labor Day). Labor unions organize demonstrations throughout the country against Pension Reform. President Bolsonaro may sign provisional measures to stimulate economy. A reduction of the import tax for capital goods may be annou...

Arko poll reflects improved Executive-Legislative relationship
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2019 · 1 response

The relationship between the Executive and Legislative branches has improved. This is the conclusion drawn from an Arko Advice poll conducted among 109 federal representatives on April 23-25. Positive evaluations of the government increased from 28.43% to 38.53% in April, while negative evaluati...

Government tries to stabilize the exchange rate as expectations worsen
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 29 Apr 2019 · 1 response

During the first quarter of 2019, the Argentine economy performed worse than expected by the government, by the IMF and by most private forecasters. Inflation was much higher than anticipated. The exchange rate, in pesos per dollar, began depreciating rapidly in March towards the upper limit o...

The Real: Excessive fluctuation? Excessive depreciation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2019 · 1 response

Last week there was a particular strengthening of the dollar against other currencies. The dollar appreciation combined with the domestic risk due to the fiscal and political uncertainties hastened the depreciation of the Brazilian real, which exceeded the level of R$4.00/US$, prompting clamor fo...

A rate hike appears increasingly possible on May 20th
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Apr 2019

We currently see a 50% probability of a rate hike on May 20th due to robust growth and accelerating inflation. We see inflation stabilizing at 1.5% y/y in April and in May. Netanyahu is working on a two-year fiscal scheme in 2020-2021 in order to support political stability through 2022. Hig...

No policy change is likely at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Apr 2019

Following a relatively long Easter recess, during which nothing much happened in Hungary, except for the political theatre preceding the late May European election, economic decision-making is to become more active again. Tomorrow (on April 30), the Monetary Council's monthly rate-setting meeting...

Will a new President and ally be enough to boost the economy?
PANAMA · Report · 28 Apr 2019

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity increased 3.65% YTD (the result of 3.57% in January and 3.74% in February), lower than what was expected by the market. The main concern for the first half of the year relates to the El Niño phenomenon and the drought that comes with it. The agricultural pro...

AKP under pressure on many fronts
TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2019 · 1 response

There is now sufficiently heavy news flow to take rumors of Davutoglu and/or Babacan forming new parties seriously. There are other disgruntled groups in AKP, too, which is forcing Erdogan into indecisiveness on several policy areas. One of these is the fate of the alliance with MHP, the other wh...

Positive feedback loops
INDIA · In Brief · 28 Apr 2019

The key thing to watch for in the financial stress is the positive feedback loops. Here are six pieces that we see today.1. It is believed that one of the chunks of cash that ADAG group hopes to obtain in coming weeks is Rs.20 billion from Zee group, which has itself defaulted on some payments. T...

Credit stress in ADAG group
INDIA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2019

In the last year of Indian financial stress, we have seen defaults by IL&FS, Zee Group, Supertech, etc.The biggest business house facing difficulties, though, is Anil Dhirubai Ambani Group ("ADAG"). This group comprises the following firms: Reliance Communications, Reliance Capital, Reliance Infr...

Parched
CHILE · Report · 26 Apr 2019

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) showed unfavorable results in February, although we should not rush to pessimistic conclusions. Excluding the mining sector, the IMACEC expanded a modest 2.4%, but above the 1.4% for total IMACEC. Yet the trend in the seasonally adjusted IMACEC that...

From the Arctic trade route - the shape of Sino-Russian relations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2019

The Russian ambassador to China is seeking Chinese co-operation on developing the Arctic trade route. Andrei Denisov, speaking on April 18, said this was linked to negotiations about Russian gas sales called Power of Siberia Two. Power of Siberia One is a gas deal due to expire in December this y...

Attempt to rescind Revolut's banking license
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2019

Lithuania is considering taking away Revolut's banking license. Revolut is a digital banking app that has shaken up micro finance. Revolut attained a banking license in December 2018. Revolut announced plans to start consumer lending and commission free trading in stocks. Revolut's license was gr...

Beijing’s debt “troubleshooter”: The China Development Bank
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Apr 2019 · 1 response

We have been arguing for the rising importance in China of private capital to support state activities and GDP growth in general. However, the role of the state in China’s capital flows should not be dismissed. One institution that is playing a growing role in China is the China Development Bank,...

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