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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China Q1 revenue
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Apr 2020

The Chinese Ministry of Finance Tuesday afternoon issued its budget and revenue report for Q1 2020. The headline numbers showed a year-on-year decline of 14.3%. But items jumped out that are worth flagging, some of which are difficult to understand.

China virus check – week ending April 21
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and a slight increase iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) A slight rise in the growth of traffic congestion. 3) Expressway traffic up 10%. 4) Metro rail traffic is down slightly. 5) Sh...

Will President Rodrigo Duterte lift the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) on April 30?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

With just a little over a week to go, the debate in policy circles has turned fiercer. It is not difficult to detect the bias within government for another extension, especially after resigned socio-economic planning secretary Ernesto Pernia revealed that his was a “dissonant voice” in the Dutert...

Finally, a unity government in Israel + dovish MPC protocol
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Blue & White party leader Gantz have signed an agreement to form a unity government. Under the agreement, Netanyahu and Gantz will rotate the premiership. Netanyahu will serve as prime minister for eighteen months and Gantz for eighteen months after him. The original ...

​Is Turkey deferring S-400 activation?
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020 · 1 response

In penning this Market Brief I’m torn between accuracy and timeliness.I opted out for timeliness, hoping the report by Reuters that Turkey will defer the activation ofS-400 anti-missile systems “to a future date” will not be refuted by the Erdogan administration. Traditionally, the Palace is extr...

Bolsonaro’s dual strategy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2020

After the negative repercussions of his participation in a protest with supporters that supported a military intervention and the closing of the Federal Supreme Court and Congress, President Jair Bolsonaro, when leaving the official residence at the Alvorada Palace, stated that Congress and the S...

Bolsonaro: The risks of radicalizing the narrative
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2020

Despite the Tuesday, April 21, holiday, this will be a busy week. The Lower House may vote on urgency for the bill that institutes compulsory loans for companies with assets greater than R$ 1 billion. Congress may also vote on the provisional measure that reduces salaries and working hours, as we...

Politics: More polarization or a national accord
MEXICO · Report · 20 Apr 2020

The Covid-19 virus continues to spread in Mexico, although at a relatively moderate rate. With the number of people detected with the virus doubling every seven days, and fatalities doing so every four, at the current clip Mexico could end the month with four times as many confirmed cases. Covid-...

Fighting to survive
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2020

The title of our most recent quarterly was "Year 2020: More of the same amidst a complicated political situation". We were not expecting Covid-19. Ecuador has been under strict norms of social isolation for over a month. A few economic sectors are continuing with varying levels of activity, but f...

Covid-19 crisis: no V-shaped recovery is likely
HUNGARY · Forecast · 20 Apr 2020

Under the new reality that governs the world in these days, current macro forecasts are determined mainly by the outlook on events related to the Covid-19 epidemic. There are two key factors in this regard: 1) the prospective development of the epidemic; and 2) the nature and size of policy respo...

Economics: Recalibrating for Phase 3
MEXICO · Report · 20 Apr 2020 · 1 response

When Mexico’s labor minister recently appeared at a presidential press conference to announce job losses registered between March 13 and April 6, she couched the news in the government’s particular political perspective. Both the minister and President López Obrador specifically linked the layoff...

Fiscal and Monetary Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak: First Estimates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Apr 2020

To defend against the economic effects of the pandemic, all countries – including Brazil – have been expanding public spending on health and income transfers to less advantaged people. This is a fully justifiable fiscal expansion, above reproach. In the Brazilian case, the country’s fiscal situat...

The Indian economy: Taking stock and looking forward
INDIA · Report · 20 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The early evidence about the impact of Covid-19 upon the economy is now visible. The leading indicator of business cycle conditions dropped from -2.2% in Oct-Dec 2019 to -39.9% in Jan-Mar 2020. The employment rate dropped from 40% to 27% in the lockdown. Indexes of consumer sentiment show an unpr...

Lower rental prices will push inflation negative
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Apr 2020

In March, inflation (0.0% y/y) surprised slightly on the upside as housing rental prices increased by 2% y/y. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to reach -0.3%, with housing prices expected to decline on weaker demand and growing inventory. The BoI appears committed to maintaining low yields by p...

The Se7en Weeks Theory
TURKEY · Report · 19 Apr 2020 · 2 responses

Health Minister Mr. Fahrettin Koca expects Turkey to wrap the epidemic up in about seven weeks. While this is not so unreasonable based on the declining case numbers, several tail risks ought to be kept in mind. We review evidence that the epidemic may not be that easy to tame. One piece of ne...

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