Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Pension reform back on track and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2019

Bolsonaro returns from his trip to Israel on April 3. Also on April 3, Paulo Guedes speaks at public hearing in the Lower House CCJ. In the Senate, bill that annuls the presidential decree removing visa requirements for tourists from Australia, Canada, USA and Japan may be voted upon, along with ...

Zelenskiy wins first round of Ukrainian presidential election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2019

As we predicted Zelenskiy came top in the first round. What surprised everyone is how he outperformed the polls and won 30%. Sitting President Poroshenko came second with a distant 16%. Yulia Tymoshenko came third. Poroshenko's foes said he would rig the poll. There is scant evidence of this. Por...

​Indonesia: On the run-up to the presidential election
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Apr 2019

In the month of March, everyone in the country was stung by election fever - not only intellectuals or the middle class, but also people at the grass-roots level. In fact, one candidate used a strategy effectively implemented by President Donald Trump, which is “the firehose of the falsehood” str...

Rate hike likely at the end of May
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Apr 2019

Most economic indicators point to some acceleration of growth in Q1 2019, to 3.5%-4% saar. This is above Israel's growth potential, estimated at 2.7% by the Bank of Israel. Inflation is expected to accelerate to 1.6% y/y in April (from the current 1.2%), making a rate hike on May 28 increasingly ...

​Everyone is a winner, but some more so than others
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2019

At 07:00 am Istanbul time, High Election Council (HEC) kept mum about who won Istanbul, as both candidates claimed victory by the tiniest of margins.Social media is aflame with rumors of skirmishes within HEC, with at least one of the judges injured.Yet, I shall not play the forensics poll analys...

Welcome to the jungle
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

It is 2:00 Monday, Istanbul time, or 2 hours after Mr. Yildirimdeclared victory in Istanbul, even though according to the unofficial tally of Anatolian Agencyroughly 110K of votes had remained to be counted, with Yildirim only ahead by 4,441. Then, CHP candidate Imamoglu and chairman Kilicdaroglu...

​Istanbul at razor’s edge, Erdogan downcast
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

At 22:48 Turkey time, with 96% of the votes counted, Yildirim’s lead in Istanbul shrank to 60K votes, as the few opposition TV channels began to complain about irregularities.In some of the less pro-AKP channels, impartial experts still predict Yildirim winning by 30K votes or so, and being so fa...

No Surprises: Zelenskiy & Poroshenko Pass to Second Round
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

National exit polls replicated survey results we’ve been observing over the last few months. The only surprise was for Ihor Smeshko, ex-Head of Security Bureau of Ukraine who managed to collect substantial support starting from zero just few months ago. Yulia Tymoshenko most likely will not recog...

​First Update: No earthquake, just tremors
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2019

At 21:30 Turkish time the outcome of the municipal elections is shaping up gradually, though at least in 7 provinces it is too close to call the results. The province-based tally is as follows:AKP is ahead in 39, CHP 20, MHP 10 and HDP 8 provinces.The rebel province of Tunceli could choosea commu...

Ukraine going to the polls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2019

Volodymyr Zelenskiy is the frontrunner on 24.8% according to the Razmukov Center. President Poroshenko is on 22% in the same poll. Yulia Tymoshenko is rated at 14.8%. As Poroshenko controls the election commission it might be who counts the votes and not who gets most votes that counts! One thing...

The year starts slowly…but exports of copper may change the trend. Martinelli´s trial may heat up the headlines
PANAMA · Report · 29 Mar 2019

The economic data for the first month of 2019 suggests a weak start to the year. The recently published Monthly Economic Index for January point in that direction (see Graph 1 below). Surprisingly, the effect of the World Youth Meeting in January, which should have increased internal demand by 0....

The politics of credit allocation in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Mar 2019

Discussions of China’s various stimulus programs focus on the growth of total social financing, bond purchases, swaps and other announced “official” credit policies. However, one important aspect of credit intermediation has been overlooked: geography. This political credit allocation by geograph...

The curious case of CBRT reserves, a recap
TURKEY · Report · 29 Mar 2019 · 9 responses

CBRT reserves have been the markets’ focus since last week because of substantial drops in net reserves that could not be attributed to the familiar factors. As a lot of numbers have been floating around since then, we thought it would be useful to provide some background on where these numbers a...

The South African Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged as consumer inflation remains contained
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Mar 2019

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee concluded its three-day March meeting today with Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago’s announcement that the Reserve Bank would be keeping the benchmark interest rate at 6.75%. This means the prime interest rate will also remain at 10....

Explanatory statement from the MNB: no policy cycle, next revision in late June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019

MNB vice governor Márton Nagy made an interesting statement at an investment seminar today, providing some explanation, but also a refining, to the view presented by governor Matolcsy right after the Monetary Council meeting on Tuesday, March 26.Mr. Nagy essentially repeated the Governor's words ...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.