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On November 15 President Lukashenko of Belarus complained that Russia was charging an extortionate amount for military aircraft. He threatened to end a common border that the two had established. Su-30 SM fighters are being purchased by Belarus. According to Belarus they were offered the planes f...

Ukraine’s GDP grew 4.2% y/y in 3Q, above expectations

UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Nov 2019

In 3Q 2019 Ukraine’s GDP grew 4.2% y/y slightly slowing from +4.6% y/y in 2Q. Still the result appeared to be much above expectations. We projected +3.1% for the third quarter, the NBU projected +3.5%. Poor industry performance (-1.0% y/y in 3Q) was the reason for modest estimate. However, it loo...

Russian economy growing

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2019

The Russian Statistical Agency (Rosstat) claimed that the Russian economy grew up 1.7% in 3Q of this year. This is a considerable improvement on Q2 when the figure was 0.9%. These statistics are to be treated with caution. Rosstat has a reputation for inflating positive figures. A new head of Ros...

A conservative budget 2020: the IMF should be happy

UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Nov 2019

Just on the day of the IMF mission arrival (Nov 14) Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine voted in final version of spending plan 2020. The approved budget 2020 has a modest deficit target of 2.1% of GDP, which should please the IMF officers. Revenues are based on a GDP growth forecast of +3.7% y/y and infla...

Parliament approves law on land reform in first reading

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Nov 2019

Finally it happened! Verkhovna Rada has just approved law on land reform in first reading with 240 votes (226 needed). The draft law presumes free agri-land circulation. Land could be owned by individuals and legal entities. Foreigners are not allowed to own agri-land plots till 2024. There is a ...

Manufacturing a political crisis

COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Nov 2019 · 1 response

By Latin American standards, Colombia was doing well, led by a pro-market, pro-business leader, who, despite his lack of experience in everyday domestic politics, was known for trying to avoid confrontation and distancing his administration from pork-barrel politics; who intended forcefully to be...

Monetary Policy – The SELIC in the Easing Cycle Final Phases

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Nov 2019

With 12-month inflation significantly below the lower bound of the target interval, all the core IPCA rates highly stable and below the target, inflation expectations anchored, and the economy still lethargic, the Central Bank reduced the SELIC rate to 5% and indicated that at the next COPOM meet...

Russia relaxed about terrorism case against it

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2019

On November 8 Ukraine filed a case in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Russia. Ukraine says that Russia has funded terrorism which is against international law. The pro-Russian rebels are not fighting for a sovereign state. Ukraine's argument is that unlawful violence is terrorism...

Trump associate trying to buy Ukrainian aerospace company

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2019

On November 6 it emerged that Erik Prince is negotiating to buy a Ukrainian aerospace manufacturer. The US is striving to prevent the company from being bought by the Chinese. The company is Motor Sich. Erik Prince is an informal Trump adviser and he is the founder of Blackwater the private secur...

October inflation figures represent a moderate surprise on the upside

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

CPI-inflation for October came out today at 0.6% mom, 2.9% yoy, the latter up from 2.8% in the previous month. The analyst consensus for the yoy rate was in the range of 2.7-2.8%, and our forecast was 2.7%. This moderate negative surprise was mainly blamed on food prices (up 0.8% mom on the globa...

Rumor that Russia will reduce share of USD in National Wealth Fund

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

On November 7 media stories appeared saying it is rumored that Russia will cut the share of USD in its sovereign reserves. An anonymous source in the Ministry of Finance was cited. The government is changing the fund's structure with a view to improving the pension system. Russia has been de-doll...

Polarization likely to remain intense and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro will deliver a set of post-Pension Reform proposals to Congress. Pre-salt auctions take place on Wednesday. The Senate may vote on the Parallel Pension Reform proposal, which includes states and municipalities. On Thursday, the Federal Supreme Court resumes discussion on ...

Davids beat the Goliaths

COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Nov 2019

Many an analyst is puzzled that the Central Bank has been holding interest rates constant, while its regional counterparts have started cutting. And the fact that the Bank’s next move next year might be a hike is considered by some to add insult to injury. But we don’t see a puzzle: Colombia is i...

Russia launches icebreaker warship

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019

On October 25 Russia announced the existence of a new combat icebreaker named Ivan Papanin. The purpose of the vessel is to defend the Russian Arctic. Earlier in October over 12 000 troops participated in nuclear war drills in the Russian Far North. Russian claims some of the Arctic Shelf althoug...

It is official, Alberto Fernández is the new president-elect

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019 · 1 response

Past midnight, with 97.1% of the voting tables accounted for and an overall participation rate of 80.9%, it is official now. Alberto Fernández (AF) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) are the new presidents-elect of Argentina. AF managed to obtain 48% of the votes (surpassing the 45% hurdle ...