GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Past midnight, with 97.1% of the voting tables accounted for and an overall participation rate of 80.9%, it is official now. Alberto Fernández (AF) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) are the new presidents-elect of Argentina. AF managed to obtain 48% of the votes (surpassing the 45% hurdle ...

E-day

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019

Today’s results of the general elections in Argentina, which are expected to be published between 9 pm and midnight, will put an end to the political limbo that emerged after the surprising result of the primaries in August. The electoral outlook that had been previously nourished by polls, drast...

Bank of Russia cuts interest rates

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019

On October 25 the Bank of Russia cut the interest rate to 6.5%. The atmosphere of low inflation, poor domestic growth and the distinct possibility of a worldwide economic slowdown all contributed to the decision. The previous interest rate was 7%. The bank also cited the government's tardiness is...

Policy debates and poor implementation in South Africa are further delaying economic recovery

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Oct 2019

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: Recovery of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019 helped to contain the growing pessimism regarding the South African (SA) economy. Not only did GDP growth surprise on the upside, but it also meant an aversion of a second technical recession in...

South Africa’s main opposition party in a leadership crisis as three leaders resign in one week

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Oct 2019

South Africa’s main opposition party is the Democratic Alliance (DA), and yesterday its leader, Mmusi Maimane, resigned as party leader. His resignation follows this week’s earlier resignation by DA’s Herman Mashaba as mayor of Johannesburg (the country’s most prosperous region), of which the DA ...

Gulf support likely if Lebanon's budget mollifies other donors

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Oct 2019

The cabinet approval of an ambitious 2020 budget is an important step but it still needs parliamentary approval and many details remain unclear, particularly on cutting interest on local debt. Its proposal to cut the deficit by 10 percentage to -0.6% of GDP is unrealistic but even going half this...

Hopes for an economic rally rise

UKRAINE · Forecast · 22 Oct 2019

People are calling the new Verkhovna Rada the “green (or mad) printer”: green for the Sluha Narodu’s party colors, and printer due to the speed at which this legislature is spitting out bills. Debates over legislation are very brief and largely token, which means that Ukraine will likely discover...

Oslo talks, uncertainty, and sanctions will continue

VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Oct 2019

After two months of silence, the regime seems to have presented a counteroffer to Norwegian diplomats mediating Venezuelan regime–opposition talks. The details aren’t public, but it’s likely that it follows the agreement the regime reached with the four minority ‘loyal” opposition parties. That a...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2019

CIS POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2019

The Russian economy is growing only very modestly, but public finances are sound. The Ukrainian conflict has slowed down, and Kyiv and Moscow have agreed to the Steinmeier Formula, which has caused protests in Ukraine. Belarus and Russia have agreed in principle to tangible progress on reunificat...

Low risk of alteration in the Pension Reform proposal and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2019

President Bolsonaro will spend the week travelling through Asia and the Middle East. The Senate votes on the second round of Pension Reform. The government has promised to announce a post-Pension Reform agenda on Wednesday, October 23. The STF discusses arrests following conviction by a higher co...

Politics: Legislative tide, failed security policy

MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2019

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has achieved a great deal in Congress in the past few months and weeks to advance the cause of his broader political project. This week we look at a dozen of his most important legislative accomplishments to date as well as a number of lesser bills. While man...

Russian government aims to limit foreign ownership of tech

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2019

On 21 October the government outlined its proposals to restrict foreign ownership of the internet sector. Yandex and Mail.ru are two of the vital companies in this sector. The limit on foreign ownership will be 50% which is much higher than previously thought. The law must have clear criteria to ...

Economics: Household spending outpaces income

MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2019

Following up on our earlier issue on household incomes according to the 2018 National Household Income and Spending Survey (ENIGH for its Spanish acronym), this week we are focusing on the characteristics of household spending and how they have evolved since the prior survey in 2016. Generally sp...

Johannesburg Mayor Herman Mashaba resigns following election of Democratic Alliance’s new Federal Council Chairperson, Helen Zille

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Oct 2019

After the August 2016 municipal elections, Mr. Herman Mashaba assumed office as the Mayor of Johannesburg . He was a member of the Democratic Alliance (DA), the main opposition party to the ruling African National Congress (ANC). Mr. Mashaba’s taking office as the Mayor of Johannesburg meant that...

Regarding the recent disturbances in several cities in Chile

CHILE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2019

The impact on financial markets so far has been limited. At 10:50 am the Chilean peso depreciated about 2% against the dollar, in a context in which the exchange rate in several other countries were also increasing, although by somewhat smaller magnitudes. Short-term rates fell 6bp and longer-ter...