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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fiscal policy does not have much room left to support the economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020

The central government's cash deficit rose to HUF 1837bn or an annualised 8% of GDP in H1 after one of the highest ever monthly deficits, HUF 786bn, was reported for June. Even after adjustment for the EU reimbursement gap, an approach to bring the cash number closer to the accrual-terms ESA-2010...

AFP reform passes first major hurdle
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The House of Deputies last night voted 95-25 (with 31 abstentions) in favor of going forward with a constitutional amendment that allows Chileans to claim up to 10% of their private pensions savings. The bill will now move on to the Deputies’ Constitution Committee, and then on to the Senate, but...

Inflation accelerated but with no surprise
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020

Rosstat announced that in June inflation accelerated to 3.2% y-o-y, as it reached 0.2% m-o-m. This acceleration looks moderate, as retail sales seemingly started to recover as of lockdown restrictions have been eased. Note that in June 2019, monthly inflation was at zero. It was rather unusual fo...

China virus check – week ending July 6
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jul 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Coal use in the power industry was largely unchanged. 2) Iron ore blast furnace operating rates trended slightly higher but remain below year-earlier levels. 3) Traffic congestion rose sl...

After contamination, Bolsonaro tries to build a narrative
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2020

After confirming his coronavirus contamination, President Jair Bolsonaro has started to create a narrative that could mobilize his supporters. Yesterday, Bolsonaro posted a video on social media in which he takes a hydroxychloroquine pill, stating that he feels “very well” after three doses of th...

BAHRAIN: Q1 GDP outturn is worse than it initially looks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jul 2020

Bahrain’s GDP contracted by -1.1% y/y in Q1, similar to Saudi's but much less than Dubai's. One bright point was growth in oil & gas, due to increased gas output to power Alba’s expansion. Hotels contracted by a stunning -68% y/y, which is probably a substantial overestimate. However, the rest of...

Abinader has been proclaimed elected President and PRM won absolute majority in the Senate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 08 Jul 2020

The Central Electoral Board proclaimed Luis Abinader and Raquel Peña as elected president and vice president. Abinader and his ballot partner obtained 52.5% of the votes, Gonzalo Castillo and Margarita Cedeño (current VP) of the PLD and allies obtained 37.5% and former President Leonel Fernández ...

June CPI-inflation marginally below expectation, no big deal for central bank policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jul 2020

The headline rate of CPI-inflation jumped to 2.9% yoy in June from 2.2% yoy in May, ending up just slightly below the 3% average analyst expectation. This anticipated sharp pick-up was clearly due to a 9.3% mom recovery by fuel prices (which were still down by 11.6% yoy), so it is essentially the...

Bolsonaro tested positive for COVID-19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro announced on July 7 that he tested positive for the coronavirus. In an announcement made live on TV Brasil, CNN and Rede Record, Bolsonaro said he has a fever of 38ºC, but that his temperature is already decreasing. He also reported that he had been feeling uneasy and tir...

Really awful data out on May industry and tourism today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2020

The Statistical Office (KSH) is making a good contribution to the quantification of the Covid-19 economic impact this week. Earlier today, they released industrial output and guest nights spent at hotels for May. Their freshly reported data is really quite poor in the sense that although they ref...

Russian Government seeks USD 2 billion compensation for oil spill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2020

On July 6 Moscow said that Nornickel should voluntarily pay compensation for the worst oil spill in Arctic history. The mining company. The Russian Environment Agency said 21 000 tons of diesel leaked out. Norilsk Taimyr is the subsidiary of Nornickel which is responsible. This would be about 33%...

​The BoI will purchase corporate bonds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The MPC decided to maintain present policy rates on hold at 0.1%, but announced a plan to purchase 15bn ILS of Israeli corporate bonds rated A- or higher in the secondary market. In addition, the Bank of Israel will renew its three-year loans to the banks at 0.1%. The monetary announcement reflec...

Education Minister appointment still pending
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2020

After a strong reaction from the so-called "ideological wing", President Jair Bolsonaro´s intention to appoint the state secretary of Paraná, Renato Feder, to the Ministry of Education was rendered unfeasible. Last night, after becoming the target of attacks on social media, Feder thanked Bolsona...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2020

Between June 1st and July 2nd, the number of COVID-19 deaths in Brazil doubled, from 31 thousand to 62 thousand, while the number of infected people nearly tripled, from 555 thousand to 1.5 million, only lower than the number recorded in the United States (2.8 million). The country has not had a ...

A complex municipal election and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to announce the new Minister of Education. He is also expected to sanction Provisional Measure 936, which allows for salary and working hour cuts during the pandemic. The House may vote on Provisional Measure 925, which includes aid to the aviation sector. Flá...

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