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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia trying to switch to domestic software - unsuccessfully
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2019

The Russian Audit Chamber published statistics showing that in 2017-18 government agencies purchased USD 130 million of domestically produced software and USD 263 million of foreign created software. This is disappointing because the government would like to see its agencies buying more Russian m...

Can the Fed save us again?
TURKEY · Forecast · 03 Feb 2019

Last year ended better than feared by some measures, markets have been constructive on Turkey so far this year and now the Fed, recoiling from recent market turbulence, has signaled that it is probably finished with rate hikes for now, and moreover, that the balance sheet runoff may end sooner th...

Senate elects Davi Alcolumbre
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2019 · 1 response

After a turbulent electoral process, the Senate has elected Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP) as the president of the Senate. He obtained 42 votes.Alcolumbre is close to Bolsonaro’s Chief of Staff, Onyx Lorenzoni.

House of Representatives: Maia wins and says at least two months of debates ahead for Pension Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2019

Rodrigo Maia’s (DEM-RJ) third successful bid for the speakership of the Lower House, with 334 votes, reveals his ability to build support. His election is also a win for the Bolsonaro administration, which further reinforces the favorable environment for the agenda of economic reforms, especially...

Russia planning to increase hydropower
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2019

The Russian Army is planning to blow up a channel blocking the waterflow to Bureya Reservoir in the Russian Far East. The low production of hydroelectricity in the region has driven up electricity prices. Coal is being used to make up the shortfall. Russia wants to have as much coal as possible f...

Land expropriation without compensation in South Africa: A chronological update
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Feb 2019

It was during its 54th National Elective Conference in December 2017 (ANC 54) at Nasrec, the same conference that resulted in the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as the new President of the organization, that the ruling African National Conference (ANC) also elected to pursue land expropriation witho...

China’s winners and losers
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Feb 2019

China has instituted several targeted stimulus measures designed to improve GDP growth and provide capital for small businesses, the country’s largest employment sector. These measures, however, are likely to be inadequate compared with the decline in capital due to the restrictions imposed on sh...

Moderate fiscal misalignment in 2018
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Feb 2019

Recently, the Ministry of Finance announced that in 2018 the Central Government's deficit reached DOP 97.7 bn or 2.4% of GDP. That is DOP 22.2 bn more than the target set in the budget law. The deficit of the NFPS reached DOP 104.6 bn or 2.6% of GDP, DOP 25.7 bn more than the target. Both cases w...

Improving investors’ confidence
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Feb 2019

In the last quarter of 2018 and in January 2019, we have seen the return of investors’ appetite to invest in Indonesia. The Indonesian stock market has been surging on the back of improved capital inflows. As of this writing, the Jakarta Composite Index, the country’s main stock market index, has...

Terror 102
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Feb 2019

As the New Year begins, our assessment of the Colombian economy is mixed. Economic activity continues to pick up, consumer sentiment is recovering and, while inflation and monetary policy face some challenges, they’re nothing out of the ordinary. But there will be serious fiscal issues, both for ...

Breaking News: Comedian Zelenskiy Takes the Lead in Presidential Race
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jan 2019

It’s a shock. Hype around Zelenskiy exceeded any expectations. Three reputable sociological agencies (funded by USAID) reported that Volodymyr Zelenskiy took the lead in presidential race. It looks like a surreal show but… we will not have a chance to wake up in some other reality. My impression ...

EURHUF at 316: first tentative thoughts on renewed forint strength
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Jan 2019

1. EURHUF fell back to around 316 in the last 24 hours, continuing its strengthening trend taken in mid-January. Information available, mainly data from the MNB, suggests that this trend is entirely market driven: especially nonresidents are building up speculative positions in favour of the fori...

Russian investment and consumption lower than 5 years ago
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2019

Fixed investment was 4.5% lower in 2018 compared to 2014. Retail is almost 11% below what it was in 2008. Real wages are 10% lower than in 2014. In 2008 the government strove to stimulate the economy with pensions and wage hikes. This policy has been abandoned since 2014. The Ministry of Economic...

COSTA RICA: Time to deliver
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jan 2019

Costa Rica: After tense months filled with debates over fiscal issues, and questions over the day-to-day difficulties of handling largely unbalanced fiscal accounts, the waters seem to be calming. Discussions in December were concentrated on the implications of Moody’s sovereign ratings downgrade...

Inflation Report: The CBRT reiterates its intention to stay tight
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Jan 2019

The CBRT released this year's first Inflation Report today. The 2019 year-end inflation forecast, as we had expected, was revised down by 0.6 percentage point to 14.6% (midpoint of 11.9%-17.3% band) from 15.2% previously (i.e. in the October Report), which is also lower than the 16.5% analysts' f...

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