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The failure of China’s SME program
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Jun 2020

The success of China’s stimulus measures will depend on the ability of the financial system to deliver capital to the most profitable – and highest employing – sectors. Is China successful in this? The anecdotal information suggests that loans to small businesses don’t always reach the best custo...

Bracing for the Worst Downturn in History
COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Jun 2020

President Iván Duque’s early public health actions, among them a nationwide lockdown in March, were hailed as timely. These have been gradually eased since mid-April, and everyone hopes the health system can cope. Otherwise, Colombians might be returned to confinement. We’re all but certain that ...

The IMF Memorandum has nominally light conditions for next review… but pitfalls
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jun 2020

At the released IMF memorandum, we do not see heavy conditionality which have been discussed in media over the recent weeks. For the first review (to be finished by September 1st) only two light steps should be completed. They include approval of NPL reduction plan for the state-owned banks and f...

US to give USD 250 million military aid to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2020

On June 12 the United States announced a military aid package to Ukraine worth USD 250 million. This will include equipment, training and advice. The explicit purpose is to oppose 'Russian aggression'. The aid package was contingent on reform of the Ukraine Military. Anti-corruption and civilian ...

Russian bank and IT company trying to split
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2020

Sberbank and Yandex are trying to divorce. The bank announced on June 9 that it will buy 72% of the maps service 2GIS. 2GIS is a rival to Yandex,Maps.Mapping is not very lucrative. Sberbank wants to use 2GIS to upgrade navigation for its Delivery Club. The Delivery Club competes with Yandex.Food....

Argentina webinar featuring Esteban Medrano - A debt restructuring during the pandemic
ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Jun 2020

Argentina webinar featuring Esteban Medrano - A debt restructuring during the pandemic. Esteban Medrano discusses Argentina's macro situation in the face of the pandemic, as well as scenarios for the restructuring.

Fábio Faria's appointment to the Ministry of Communications
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro announced yesterday, June 10, the re-creation of the Ministry of Communications, which is no longer part of the Ministry of Science and Technology, and appointed Federal Rep. Fábio Faria (PSD-RN) as its minister. Faria's appointment has the following consequences: ...

In April real growth was estimated at -29.8% and for Jan-Apr at -7.5%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020

The Central Bank has just reported that in April the economic activity declined by 29.8% compared to April last year and that between January and April it fell by 7.5%. This is the sharpest decline in economic activity in recent economic history. These figures are not surprising at all. In fact, ...

Kyrgyz former PM jailed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020

On June 9 former Prime Minister Sapar Isakov was convicted of misusing public funds and sentenced to 18 years in jail. The money was intended for museum and horse race course. Isakov was already incarcerated for the other financial crimes and mishandling the two cases that he is now convicted of....

​Foreign Policy: Victory in Libya amidst trouble in Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020 · 1 response

Since the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, I’ve steadily reduced my coverage of foreign policy.This wasn’t because Turkey was not doing anything new, but because what transpired “abroad” had little pertinence for economy, markets or the equilibrium in domestic politics. This state of affairs conti...

The NBU slashes prime rate by 200 bps, down to 6%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020

The NBU Board slashed prime rate by 200 basis points down to 6% today. The lowest level in Ukraine’s history. New IMF program, slowing inflation (+0.3% m/m or +1.7% y/y in May), and strengthening national currency created positive background for more aggressive easing steps. Economic situation ha...

Russian bank profits at a record low
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020

On June 10 the chief of the Russian Central Bank said that profits in banking fell to an all time low in May 2020. Banks made USD 7 million profit in May 2020. The net profit for the whole of 2020 to date is USD 8 billion. The bulk of this was earned in Q1. The Russian banking sector was in good ...

Current account surplus widens in May and is set to remain strong in June
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2020 · 1 response

CBR reported that Russia’s current account and trade surpluses widened in 5m20 relative to 4m20 and reached $28.9bn and $43.2bn (from $23.5bn and $35.6bn as CBR estimated earlier these two surpluses for 4m20). This means that in May the trade surplus unsurprisingly widened in May to $7.6bn as the...

TSE cases and the Fake News Inquiry put pressure on Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2020

The trial in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) of two cases filed by then-candidates Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Marina Silva (Rede), asking for the annulment of the electoral ticket of Jair Bolsonaro and Hamilton Mourão, after a hacker attack against a Facebook group entitled “Women united agai...

IMF approves USD 5 billion for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2020

On June 10 the IMF executive board signed off on a USD 5 billion standby arrangement for Ukraine to last 18 months. Ukraine shall receive USD 2 billion immediately. The remainder shall be paid out in four installments up to December 2021. The aid is USD 200 million more than originally discussed....

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