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Country Insights

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Another Poor Inflation Print
TURKEY - Report 04 Nov 2013
At 1.8%, October CPI-inflation came in markedly higher than consensus (1.3%) as well as our more bearish forecast (1.5%), but thanks to last year’s high base, the 12-month rate nevertheless declined to 7.7%, from 7.9% a month earlier. Yet, both PPI and core inflation (I-index) rose, the latter mu...

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2014 Fiscal Budget
VENEZUELA - Report 04 Nov 2013
The government is budgeting a 3.7 percent of GDP deficit for the national government in 2014, according to the draft budget submitted to the National Assembly on October 15. We forecast a substantially lower deficit at 0.7 percent of GDP. As usual, both revenues and expenditures are underestimate...

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Price Controls and Fiscal Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Nov 2013
The fiscal result for September was disastrous. The consolidated public sector (central plus state and municipal governments) recorded a primary deficit of R$ 9 billion. This lowered the primary surplus in proportion to GDP to 1.6% against 1.8% in August. After correcting the official figures for...

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Former Friends Fighting for Votes
COLOMBIA - Forecast 04 Nov 2013
Executive SummaryHouseholds are growing less indebted, due to slowing consumption lending – and that’s the main reason for the slowdown in consumption. Still, at nearly 74%, most household debt is still consumption debt. And consumption lending was rebounding in the first week of October. That’s ...

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A New Ballgame
ARGENTINA - Forecast 04 Nov 2013
Executive Summary President Cristina Kirchner’s chances of running for a third consecutive termare now nil, after midterm elections October 27th cut her party’s representation in Congress to 32%, from 54% in 2011. The political cycle of Kirchnerism is also over: the new Congress won’t pass the re...

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Political Insights: Week of November 4
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 Nov 2013
A busy week in Congress: In the House, the rapporteur of the Mining Code may present his report. On the House floor, the new Civil Process Code may be voted upon. In the Senate, two important Constitutional amendment proposals are on the agenda: the Compulsory Budget and the amendment to institut...

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Weekly Tracker: November 3-9
TURKEY - Report 03 Nov 2013
Executive Summary March local election campaign started with headscarves in parliament and Mr. Sarigul, the popular mayor of Istanbul’s Sisli district, joining the CHP ranks. There is no more room for reforms until after the elections. We begin by outlining our preliminary predictions for the loc...

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Inflation Report: Nothing Surprising
TURKEY - In Brief 31 Oct 2013
As we were tied up at the economic congress in Izmir (apologies!), we couldn't hear Governor Basci speak today, but there is little surprising in what we read and heard so far.  Inflation yearend estimate (midpoint) is now 6.8%, which we knew from the MTP already, while Governor Basci has apparen...

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Entering a New Cycle?
CHILE - Report 31 Oct 2013
Executive Summary After 20 months with no change in the monetary policy rate, the Central Bank decided it was time to deliver a cut. The Board of the Central Bank of Chile decided in October to reduce the monetary policy rate from 5.00% to 4.75%. The timing of the move came as a surprise. The exp...

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Rebound Promises Improvement
INDONESIA - Report 31 Oct 2013
Executive Summary Q3 economic performance maintained its dynamism, according to corporate analyses released so far. Several of these reports chronicle continuing growth, bolstered by spending linked to the Ramadan celebrations (Ramadan shifts from year to year, and this year ran from July 8-Au...

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Spending Restraint?
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 30 Oct 2013
Growth in government spending decelerated further in September in what may be seen as an immediate impact of the still unfolding pork barrel (PDAF) scandal as agencies have likely become extra cautious in releasing funds for projects.  Data released today showed government non-interest expenditur...

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AMLO Protests Lose Steam
MEXICO - In Brief 30 Oct 2013
The former presidential candidate of the Left and the PRD, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has found in the opposition to the Energy Reform a new political opportunity, but it is losing steam rapidly as a source of popularity and public relevance. With a strategy based on public meetings, and radio a...

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Turning Point On Growth?
PERU - Report 30 Oct 2013
Executive Summary Scandal upon scandal seems to be erupting, crowding out potential debates over substantive political issues. First, there’s the string of corruption cases in Congress—the latest focused on a politician discovered paying himself more than half the congressional funds meant for hi...

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Unemployment Rate Eases on Rising Absorption Rate
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 29 Oct 2013
According to Statistics South Africa, the Q3 2013 unemployment rate of 24.7% is 0.9 percentage points lower than the 25.6% recorded in Q2 2013 (see Graph 1 below). This was mainly driven by an increase in the number of employed persons (2.2% q/q) coupled with a decrease in the number of unemploye...

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Scaling Back Revenues
MEXICO - Report 29 Oct 2013
Executive Summary Banco de México announced Friday that it was lowering its target interbank lending rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 3.50%. The move, which was widely expected, was the central bank’s third rate cut year to date. In the statement accompanying the rate announcement, Banco de ...