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The change in the external picture
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jan 2019

The benign picture of “synchronized growth” of the mature and emerging economies is a thing of the past. At present, the prevailing pattern is deceleration of global growth, affecting developed countries like those in Europe as well as developing nations like China. One of the consequences is les...

Preview for tomorrow's Monetary Council: raised eyebrows, some hawkish-style talk but no real action likely
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jan 2019

The Monetary Council's monthly rate-setting meeting is scheduled for tomorrow. Analysts do not expect the Council to make any major step towards policy tightening, except for probably refining the language of its communiqué a bit further in that direction, which the press & news agencies might tr...

Bank of Russia launching fast payment on 28 January
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2019

The Bank of Russia (CBR) is launching a fast payment system for a limited number of clients. People will be able to transfer money by entering the phone number of the beneficiary. Banks involved are VTB, Raiffeisen, Tinkoff, Qiwi, Gazprombank, Rosbank, Alfa Bank, AK Bars and others. Sberbank is n...

Eerily calm before elections
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Our thesis is that so far moderate and unconventional pre-election stimulus failed to attract the unusually large share of undecideds to AKP, but preserved the fragile balance in the currency and bond markets. We pose answers to three known unknows, namely who the undecideds are, how they are lik...

Wage strike at Audi Hungaria, with a few lessons
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jan 2019

We have seen the first serious strike action of recent times in Hungary this week. Despite a series of recent strike threats from major trade unions, it surfaced at just one company, which is Audi Hungaria, the local subsidiary of the German carmaker operating within the broad Volkswagen group. A...

Russian region will not have to pay debt to Gazprom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2019

A court in the Russian region of Chechnya ruled that Chechnya does not have to pay a debt of USD 135 million to Gazprom. Gazprom has protested. The company is worried that other regions will also seek to have their debts written off too. The General-Prosecutor has taken Gazprom's side in this dis...

Russian population declining
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2019

The Russian population has started to fall. There are more deaths than births. Despite immigration the population went down by 87 000 last year. Immigration is also falling. The government is keen to make the population grow. A maternity capital program started last year which pays a monthly allo...

The South African economy poised for revival
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 25 Jan 2019

Summary and assumptions • South Africa’s growth: South Africa started 2018 on a high note and full of renewed optimism but ended the year with a more muted tone following another year of insipid economic metrics. GDP growth disappointed in H1 2018 but recovered in Q3 with 2.2% GDP growth. We ex...

Pressure on Maduro mounts
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Escalating pressures on Maduro, Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly, was symbolically sworn in to "assume the powers of the Executive" as "interim president” before huge crowds in Caracas and other cities on January 23. The demonstration convened that same day by the government was a ...

How to think about China’s Year of the Pig
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 Jan 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: • On February 5, the Year of the Pig begins. This is supposed to be a good year for making money, especially in the stock markets, and it may well turn out to be true, but only because the past year has been so miserable and Beijing may be thinking of ...

January 2019 China Bank Survey
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jan 2019

China’s banking system is under pressure to strike a balance between supporting economic growth and reducing credit risks. On one hand, Beijing is calling for lenders to step up funding for small businesses and infrastructure projects to revive the ailing economy. On the other hand, worsening cor...

GDP growth sustained above 6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Jan 2019

Government announced today that 4Q18 GDP grew 6.1%, a little below the median 6.3% analysts’ forecast. The headline rate reflects slower domestic demand growth alongside a smaller drag from net exports. The two are related: the former was pulled down by lower investments in durable equipment, mai...

Duma seeks more power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jan 2019

The Russian Parliament (Duma) is seeking to gain greater powers. Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin is asking for a constitutional change to enhance checks and balances. Volodin has several other disputes to handle. He wants to offer a solution to ''Problem 2024'' what to do when Putin's current an...

World Youth Day 2019 and the new government's to-do list
PANAMA · Report · 23 Jan 2019

This is Francisco’s week. The Argentinian Pope will arrive at Tocumen Airport on January 23 for a three-day visit to preside over the World Youth Day ("JMJ" in Spanish), an event that occurs every three years in a different city of the world; it was last held in Krakow, Poland in 2016 and drew th...

Three major Russian food and drink retailers merge
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jan 2019

Krasnoye i Beloye, Dixy and Bristol are merging. Dixy is a food retailer owned by Igor Kesaev. Krasnoye i Beloye is a chain of liquor stores. Bristol is also a chain of liquor stores and is owned by Sergey Katsiyev. Dixy and Bristol will own 51% of the new company. Krasnoye i Beloye will own 49%....

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