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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A window of opportunity opens up
TURKEY · Report · 14 Oct 2018 · 1 response

The decision to send Pastor Brunson home is testimony to President Erdogan’s flexibility, coming only 12 days after he personally accused the cleric of being a terrorist. There is now hope for sincere dialogue in areas of dispute with the US. However, the White House needs to reciprocate by endin...

Ukrainian church to receive Independence: Russia might escalate
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Oct 2018

I’m not a big expert in church affairs, but on October 11 there was a historical event in clerical world which will have far-reaching consequences for secular life in Ukraine. A bit of history to start. More than 300 years ago (1648-1657) there was a big war between Ukraine and Poland. National l...

Healthy numbers, but IMF deal is elusive
UKRAINE · Forecast · 12 Oct 2018

Things in Ukraine have grown quite confusing. At this writing, macro statistics remain mostly good. GDP is growing strongly, at +3.8% y/y in Q2, on the back of investment and consumption. The CAD remains modest, at close to 2% of GDP, though it has started widening in H2. General budget revenues ...

Vizcarra gets his way
PERU · Report · 11 Oct 2018

After gleaning that Congress was dragging its feet on his four proposed constitutional amendments, President Vizcarra addressed the nation on TV and accused the congressional majority of trying to modify them. The president implied that if his call for a referendum was delayed or denied, he could...

Bolsonaro starts the runoff with a large advantage over Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2018

The first Datafolha poll on the second round of the presidential race, published on October 10, shows a gap of 13 percentage points between Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT) in total votes (see table below). When considering only the valid vote, the distance of Bolsonaro over Haddad i...

​Brunson or sanctions?
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2018

Until the blood bath in Wall Street infected them, TL denominated assets largely outperformed EM peers despite an anti-inflation program full of hot air, primarily because global investors believe American Pastor Mr. Brunson will be released in his court hearing on Friday. In my last remarks on t...

The Legislative Assembly (Diputados) approved the new Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) and President Varela signed it today
PANAMA · In Brief · 10 Oct 2018

After a long tug-of-war between the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the Diputados, the new FRL was approved yesterday. The new fiscal architecture follows the pattern presented by the MEF in mid-year and discussed in our previous issue:1. The adjustment to the deficit (related to Panama...

KPMG to audit National Bank of Georgia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2018

KPMG TO AUDIT NATIONAL BANKThe Georgian Government announced on 27 September that they are appointing KPMG to audit the National Bank of Georgia. Georgia is eager to achieve a reputation for fiscal probity. This will make it easier to obtain loans. Tblisi has also spoken about developing itself a...

President of Uzbekistan meets President of France.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2018

President of Uzbekistan meets President of France. On 9 October the President of Uzbekistan visited Paris. President Mirziyoyev met President Macron of France. Uzbekistan considers this a major success since most Western governments were unwilling to receive the late President Karimov due to huma...

Feeling the shock
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Oct 2018

Our September 2018 inflation estimate is 231 percent, close to the August record of 236 percent. Accumulated inflation for the first nine months of the year rose to 125,748 percent and the September annual rate to 569,082 percent. For October we project a slight slowdown to 224 percent. Infla...

En route to the second round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2018

As per our expectations, the second round of the presidential elections will be a runoff between Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT). There were no surprises, despite expectations (30% likelihood) that Bolsonaro could win in the first round, or that Ciro Gomes (PDT) would substantially ...

Tito Mboweni is South Africa's new Minister of Finance
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Oct 2018

As predicted in my yesterday's Note, SA has a new Minister of Finance today- it is the 5th Minister of Finance since December 2015.Mr Tito Mboweni is SA's x-Governor of the Reserve Bank, as well as the first Minister of Labour in post-1994 democratic South Africa who served in Mandela's Cabinet. ...

KPMG TO AUDIT NATIONAL BANK OF GEORGIA
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2018

The Georgian Government announced on 27 September that they are appointing KPMG to audit the National Bank of Georgia. Georgia is eager to achieve a reputation for fiscal probity. This will make it easier to obtain loans. Tblisi has also spoken about developing itself as a financial services cent...

Economics: Serious Fuel Price Policy Dilemmas
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2018

In recent weeks the price of oil has risen considerably in international markets. Some media commentators have advised that the oil rally will considerably bolster public finance in the next two years. They have also placed special emphasis on the idea that the extra infusion of funds could allow...

The first months of the new government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Oct 2018

The new government will have to quickly obtain the political support necessary to achieve fiscal consolidation, to put the country on the road to stronger cyclical recovery and sustained growth. But at the outset it will face four major challenges. The first is how to react to the worse inter...

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