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Gulf weekly: Iran counterstrike, Kuwait and Bahrain GDP data
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Iran’s limited counterstrike on US forces in Iraq seemed to be a signal of de-escalation. * Iraq’s parliament voted to expel US troops. * MBS’s ...

China’s half-hearted stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jan 2020

China is entering 2020 with a weak response to the economic decline. Beijing is accepting slower growth as one of the casualties of avoiding excessive investment that would lead to inefficient growth and the potential for financial systemic risk. However, in place of a substantial monetary or fi...

Rates remain on hold and the bias remains dovish
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jan 2020

As expected, the BoI left the rate unchanged, but the interest-rate announcement came in a little bit more dovish than expected. The announcement stressed the low-inflation environment and the difficulties to return inflation back to the target range amid the strengthening of the shekel. The use ...

Central government cash deficit slightly below target in full-year 2019
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jan 2020

The central government's cash deficit was announced by the Finance Ministry today at HUF 453bn for December and HUF 1219bn for full-year 2019, the latter down from HUF 1445bn in 2018. This means a deficit of 2.6% of GDP last year, just slightly below the 2.7% target figure and more significantly ...

Inflation slows to 4.1% ytd in 2019, much below the targeted level
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Jan 2020

CPI slowed to 4.1% ytd or 7.9% y/y in 2019 down from +9.8% ytd or +10.9% y/y a year ago, beating any projections for the year. The NBU aimed +6.3% ytd but now consumer inflation is more than 2ppt below the target. Falling transportation prices (-2.4% ytd vs. +12.9% ytd in 2018), sliding utilities...

Happy new year?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Jan 2020

First, the good news. Government has a new P4.1 trillion budget which President Duterte signed into law early this week. This would normally be par for the course but, following last year’s delayed budget that became a major drag on economic growth, is clearly a positive development. Public spend...

Gross reserves jump by $3.4 billion in December, touching 7-years highs
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Jan 2020

The NBU reported $25.3 billion or 3.9 months of imports by the end of December 2019. It appeared to be an impressive jump by 15.4% or $3.4 billion just for one month (up by $4.5 billion since the year start). That high level of gross reserves has not been seen since November 2012. At the press-re...

Pipeline from Russia to Turkey opens
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2020

On January 8 the Turkstream pipeline was launched. The pipeline is 930 km across the Black Sea. The aim is to avoid Russian gas going via Ukraine. Gazprom is the company sending the gas. The capacity will be 15.75 bcm. Much of the gas will transit on the to the EU.This is the third pipeline extan...

Ukrainian passenger plane crashes in Iran
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2020

On January 8 a Ukrainian International Airlines plane crashed in Iran. All 176 people aboard were killed. The cause of the disaster has not yet been determined. Already some people on the internet are making accusations of foul play. The crash comes at a moment of high tension between Iran and th...

A gap has opened up between the performance of listed and unlisted companies
INDIA · Report · 08 Jan 2020

Listed firms in India experienced buoyant growth from 1999 until about 2006, but their growth in the following period has been disappointing. In this note, we find that until 2012, listed and unlisted firms fared similarly. But since 2012, a significant gap has opened up between the two groups. U...

Limited Iranian counterstrike seems credit positive for GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Jan 2020

Soon after midnight, Baghdad time, January 8, Iran fired over a dozen ballistic missiles at two of the main bases hosting US forces in Iraq. The missiles struck the main al-Asad base in the western Anbar region and another base near Erbil in the Kurdistan region. Initial reports, including from T...

Why?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Jan 2020 · 1 response

On 5 January 2020 the regime carried out a parliamentary coup aimed at replacing Juan Guaidó as president of the National Assembly (AN). It created a fictitious, fraudulent and obedient AN Board while, at the same time, a legitimate Board headed by Juan Guaidó emerged from the vote of 100 deputie...

Ukraine worried about immigration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2020

Poland is considering making it easier for Ukrainian to gain permanent residency. There are over a million Ukrainians legally resident in Poland. The languages of the two neighbors are very similar. The Polish proposal got mixed reactions in Ukraine. Many Ukrainians want to move somewhere where t...

China and the impossible trinity
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jan 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Capital flight continues to be a major issue for Beijing, with the “Errors and omissions” account at an all-time high. • The central bank wants to maintain relatively easy monetary conditions as it tries to work its way through China’s debt burden, b...

The fiscal deficit reached 3.7% GDP in 2019
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jan 2020

The fiscal deficit in 2019 exceeded the planned deficit by 12bn ILS, due to a 9.2bn undershooting of revenues and a 2.8bn overshooting in spending. Expenditures of government ministries increased by 6.3% y/y, above the original planned budget of 5.1% growth in spending.Tax revenues were up 3.5% i...

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