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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Supply-side solutions for demand-side problems
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue:​ * Although China’s GDP growth has continued to slow quite dramatically, Beijing doesn’t yet seem to have been panicked into planning a heavy stimulus. Although I do think we can expect a mild stimulus in the next month or two, I continue to believe t...

Default stress in China: The case of the Bank of East Asia
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Corporate defaults reported in the 1H 2019 financials of the Bank of East Asia in Hong Kong relating to mainland corporates has raised red flags about the weakness of the Chinese economy. Do these loans point to bigger problems?

Peace talks on Ukraine falter
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Sep 2019

On September 18 peace talks on the Ukrainian Conflict faltered. Steinmeier forumla had been suggested which entailed both sides withdrawing combatants gradually. Donbass would also be given a unique degree of autonomy. Moscow stipulated the aforementioned conditions in order to attend a summit in...

South Africa’s baseline interest rate remains unchanged at 6.5% despite stable inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Sep 2019

Today, in a largely anticipated move, the SA Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, which also leaves the prime interest rate at 10%. The Reserve Bank had adjusted the repo rate for the first time in 2019 during end-July, cuttin...

Special Report: Pakistan-Central Asia and the prospects for a post-Afghan war scenario
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2019

Afghanistan has recently received a lot of media attention due to increased violent attacks conducted by extremist groups, amidst peace negotiations between the US and the Taliban. President Trump has announced his intention to pull out US troops from the country and US officials have been holdin...

After Abqaiq: A quick recovery and reasons to de-escalate
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Sep 2019

Aramco says it’s restored Khurais output and about half of Abqaiq, with a full return to normal in two weeks. The oil market seems to believe Aramco, which we think can restore output before fully repairing the damage because the facilities had previously been operating below capacity. Aside from...

​Erdogan issues ultimatum to USA
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2019

Coming out of the Astana Summit, which appeared not to yield a break-through on Idlib, Erdogan roared out an ultimatum to USA. He gave USA two weeks to sign under an agreement to erect a safe zone in North-East Syria, where he wants to resettle two million refugees. To cut a long story short, I w...

The former head of Ukrainian National Bank claims she fears assassination
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2019

The woman who nationalized PrivatBank has had her house in Kyiv burnt down in an arson attack on September 18. The woman is named Valeria Gontareva and she said she believes her house burning down was revenge for the bank's nationalization. Although we note the issue has been heavily politicized ...

Is lending to bankrupt countries really a good idea?
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Sep 2019

There are a number of Middle Eastern states that would struggle to access international bond markets without the backing of the wealthy Gulf states. We analyze how this politics of support is unfolding across the region and examine differing oil price scenarios out to 2030 using our measure of de...

Coalition formation will be challenging
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Sep 2019

According to unofficial partial results of the elections held yesterday, Likud and Blue-White won 32 seats each, the Joint List 12, Shas and Yisrael Beytenu 9 each, UTJ 8, Yamina 7, Labor-Gesher 6 and the Democratic Union 5. According to 91% of the votes, Netanyahu fails to secure the ruling majo...

Continuing stress in the automobile industry
INDIA · Report · 17 Sep 2019

We revisit the comparison we made in our report of August 15, 2019, between the stress of 2008 and 2018 as seen in three components of the automobile industry – HCV's (heavy commercial vehicles), passenger cars and two-wheelers. In all three cases, we work with seasonally adjusted levels, and exp...

Russia investing national welfare fund
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2019

On September 12 Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that a decision had been made about the National Welfare Fund (NWF). The NWF is expected to be USD 28.2 billion in 2020. The NWF will be invested in domestic projects such as oil and gas infrastructure. The Gazprom cluster at Ust Luga, Nov...

It’s all about the trade war
CHILE · Report · 17 Sep 2019 · 1 response

The economy continues to cool. The Central Bank has revised its projections for 2019 GDP growth downward for the third consecutive time. The forecast range has fallen from 3.25%-4.25% in December 2018 to 2.25%-2.75% with a downward bias in September 2019 (the Central Bank stretches its forecast r...

2019–2022 outlook: new government, stabilization, and recovery
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 17 Sep 2019

We forecast Venezuela’s GDP, oil output and exports, inflation, and external accounts through 2022 assuming that an internationally brokered deal will lead to an interim government and new elections in 2020 and that the opposition will win and be able to govern starting in 2021. In our foreca...

The clock is ticking
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2019 · 1 response

Low inflation rates of 0.14% (cumulative) and 0.33% (y/y), together with lower-than-expected tax collections as of September, and a large contraction in non-oil import growth, which fell from 16.6% to 2.2% as of July, speak of economic stagnation. The consumer confidence index also fell, to 36.2 ...

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