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AMLO’s Presidencialismo redux
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2019

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s continues to make progress in concentrating governing power directly in his hands as he appears intent on reviving the sort of presidencialista system that governed Mexico throughout most of the 20th century. This approach will also entail drawing on legal ...

The signs of weak economic activity persist
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Apr 2019

The tenuous recovery of GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 was solely due to the service sector, with industrial GDP oscillating in recent quarters at a level almost 15% below the previous peak, reached in the (distant) first quarter of 2014 (Graph 1). The most recent data show that the country’s indust...

Rate stability expected today, possibly with a more hawkish tone
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Apr 2019

We expect a rate hold decision today but with a slightly more hawkish tone, noting robust growth in Q1 2019 and higher inflation expectations. Fiscal policy remains expansionary, and with rapid expenditure growth and weak revenues in Q1 2019, some form of fiscal consolidation is expected by the n...

Fuel price agreement agreed in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2019

The oil sector has agreed to prolong its gentleman's agreement with the government to keep oil prices as static as possible. Vice Premier Dmitry Kozak was pleased to announce this on 5 April. The government considers it important to maintain price continuity as oil taxes are changing and oil refi...

Headline CPI-inflation to have risen again in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Apr 2019

CPI-inflation data for March is due on Tuesday, April 9. Following 0.6% mom, 3.1% yoy for the headline rate in February, we expect 0.5% mom, 3.5% yoy, i.e. the year-on-year rate to pull away from the 3% target in the upward direction.Much of this would be due to fuel prices, which we see at +2.5%...

The President's Choice
TURKEY · Report · 07 Apr 2019

AKP has some valid reasons to demand recounts, which have now spread to 22 provinces, with MHP emulating its bigger partner. However, election councils breaking with precedent in assessing the appeals and HDP and IYIP being discriminated against in their appeals smacks of a con-game. By early ...

Investment data for Jan-Mar 2019
INDIA · Report · 05 Apr 2019

One of the most important elements of business cycle conditions in India is investment. The official GDP data yields poor estimates of investment demand. We construct aggregates using micro data about individual projects. Overall investment under implementation grew by about 10% in the last five ...

China’s slowing property market and the impact on economic stability
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Apr 2019

The China property market has regained investors’ attention as the most important pillar of a recovery story. However, recent data on land sales, property financing, and consumption trends suggest analysts may be too optimistic. Our views are more pessimistic: * Weakening property prices...

Could Margarita break the PLD deadlock?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 05 Apr 2019

Robust growth and low inflation marked the beginning of 2019, with economic activity expanding 5.9% between January and February, and February inflation at 0.37%. Accumulated inflation through February was 0.2%, and annualized inflation was 1.19% -- well below the lower limit of the Monetary Prog...

​Inflation drops to 3.3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2019

Inflation continued to fall sharply to 3.3% in March from 3.8% in February and 4.4% in January. The latest inflation print is below the 3.5% market consensus. The overall price level was unchanged from last month, with declines in the prices of key food commodities such as fish, vegetables, and r...

Headwinds facing President Ramaphosa and his political strategy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Apr 2019

Dr. Iraj Abedian in collaboration with Dr Mzukisi Qobo, formerly Chief Director of Trade Policy at the Department of Trade and Industry ​ * The 2019 elections are likely to be the most decisive in the factional battles within the ANC, and they will give early indication of President Cyril Rama...

​Mind the S-400s!
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Apr 2019 · 1 response

It isnot only the recount of votes in Istanbul and now in Ankara that investors should watch closely to judge Erdogan’s future course of action and market response, but rapidly escalating S-400 tensions, too.The twin troubles are juxtaposed on a very shaky currency defended by rapidly evaporating...

Presidential Debates at the National Olympic Stadium
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Apr 2019

As soon as exit-polls were released on Sunday, there has unfolded a discussion whether Zelenskiy will go to the debate or will skip them.The point is that the presidential race frontrunner Volodymyr Zelenskiy appeared to be a poor public speaker. It was a shocking finding for many Ukrainians. Peo...

Nazarbayev resigns while retaining power: looking ahead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2019

On March 19, Nursultan Nazarbayev announced on TV his resignation from the position of President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Kassym-Jomart Tokaev, speaker of the Senate, will temporarily fulfill the functions of the President. Tokaev’s previous position, second in the Constitutional hierarchy,...

Duterte orders contracts review
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Apr 2019

President Rodrigo Duterte’s order to review contracts entered into by the government with the private sector and foreign governments has met with no small amount of unease not only among its private sector partners in infrastructure projects but also among those worried about its impact on percep...

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