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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP growth figures for Q4 2017 the highest in thirteen years
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2018

There was essentially no surprise coming out of the detailed GDP numbers for Q4 2017, reported this morning. Yet the details were interesting.First, the 1.3% qoq, 4.9% yoy growth rates for Q4 (the yoy number revised marginally upwards from the first estimate) was quite outstanding for Hungary by ...

The IMF is worried about the debt path and insists on fiscal adjustment
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 05 Mar 2018

In January, the inflation rate reached 0.29% while accumulated inflation declined moderately, reaching 3.86%, slightly below the inflation target (4%) set in the Monetary Program. After months of loose monetary policy, the Central Bank´s position has become a little more restrictive. There is ...

Plenty of blame to go around
PERU · Report · 05 Mar 2018

Ex-Odebrecht chief Jorge Barata has testified before Peruvian prosecutors, under a plea bargaining agreement that is to exonerate him of all criminal charges in Peru. Last year Barata confirmed bribing several public officials in exchange for facilitating awards of government contracts. Now he’s ...

Presidential pre-candidacies and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Mar 2018

Three presidential pre-candidacies will be launched in the coming days: Rodrigo Maia (DEM), Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB). On Tuesday, March 6, the STJ decides on the habeas corpus request filed by former President Lula. The CNT/MDA poll on intended votes and the government e...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Mar 2018

The federal intervention in public security in Rio de Janeiro through the Army has brought a wave of uncertainties. Besides virtually burying the chances for approval of the pension reform proposal this year, leaving to the next government the most important of all the reforms (by creating condit...

The economic picture gets complicated, while corruption is front and center in the electoral race
MEXICO · Report · 05 Mar 2018

The economic data released over the past month provides growing evidence that the Mexican economy continues to lose steam. GDP growth slowed to 1.5% in the fourth quarter. Industrial activity was practically flat in December, and rose only 0.6% during full-year 2017 as construction and manufactur...

Arko Poll indicates approval of Eletrobras privatization proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Mar 2018

The privatization of Eletrobras could net the government R$ 12 billion this year. Without Pension Reform on the agenda, this has become one of the main issues on the government’s fiscal agenda. An Arko Advice poll, conducted February 27-March 1 with 153 federal representatives from 24 parties, s...

What are the indications from the GDP result in 2017?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Mar 2018

After two years of contraction, GDP grew by 1% in 2017. Although this expansion was well dispersed to many sectors, growth in the fourth quarter was the lowest of 2017, and the pace of recovery has been the slowest of any of the recessions dated by CODACE (Graph 1). A year after the recession end...

Inflation worse than expected on food
TURKEY · Report · 05 Mar 2018

Consumer prices rose at a higher than expected 0.7% in February (consensus: 0.5%; ours 0.3-0.4%), with the 12-month rate hence staying broadly unchanged at 10.3%, over a month ago. Producer prices rose, however, to 13.7%, from 12.1% reflecting a technical correction in electricity prices, but als...

Alliances at home, conflicts abroad
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2018

At home, the electoral alliance between AKP and MHP begot another one at the center right, as other groupings are beginning to coalesce. Elections contested by alliances rather than individual parties could result in drastically different outcomes that we, or the current poll averages indicate. ...

Mr. Trump's trade war would have little direct impact on Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2018

The total (direct and indirect) potential impact of the recently announced extra import duties on steel and aluminum products on Hungary cannot be known for the time being, of course, as it will depend on how far trade policy conflicts between the US and the rest of the world (and primarily the E...

Gazprom strikes back: the monopoly cuts gas supplies to Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Mar 2018

The decision of Stockholm arbitration in favor of Ukraine (Naftogaz), no doubt, is unacceptable for Kremlin on the eve of presidential elections in Russia. It ruins the legend about omnipotence of Gazprom and undermines the myth about inferiority of Ukrainian state, that Russian media actively pr...

The Central bank increases prime rate by 1.0 ppt up to 17.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2018

The Board of the Central bank decided to increase prime rate by 1.0 ppt up to 17.0% from March 2. Strong inflation of January (+1.5% m/m or +14.1% y/y) and provisional data on February inflation (information is not available to public) pushed the Central bank to make one more tightening step. Mon...

Too much whining is not enough
ECUADOR · Report · 01 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Nine months have elapsed from the day Lenin Moreno took office and told Ecuadorians that “the table has not been served” as former President Correa boastfully declared. Moreno´s change of ways raised expectations for a change in the economic model as well, but on that side, to date there is nothi...

Vigencias futuras: How big?
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Mar 2018

Though fiscal policy will surely be discussed during this presidential campaign, a rather under-the-radar topic attracting criticism is the size of spending commitments President Juan Manuel Santos is leaving for future administrations to pay. These future budget commitments, known as vigencias f...

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