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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

It’s all about the trade war
CHILE · Report · 17 Sep 2019 · 1 response

The economy continues to cool. The Central Bank has revised its projections for 2019 GDP growth downward for the third consecutive time. The forecast range has fallen from 3.25%-4.25% in December 2018 to 2.25%-2.75% with a downward bias in September 2019 (the Central Bank stretches its forecast r...

2019–2022 outlook: new government, stabilization, and recovery
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 17 Sep 2019

We forecast Venezuela’s GDP, oil output and exports, inflation, and external accounts through 2022 assuming that an internationally brokered deal will lead to an interim government and new elections in 2020 and that the opposition will win and be able to govern starting in 2021. In our foreca...

The clock is ticking
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2019 · 1 response

Low inflation rates of 0.14% (cumulative) and 0.33% (y/y), together with lower-than-expected tax collections as of September, and a large contraction in non-oil import growth, which fell from 16.6% to 2.2% as of July, speak of economic stagnation. The consumer confidence index also fell, to 36.2 ...

BOP: from negative to positive
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Sep 2019

The latest balance of payments (BOP) accounts, which record residents’ transactions with non-residents for the first half of 2019, reveal quite a reversal: from net outflows of $3.3 billion in 1H18 to net inflows of $4.8 billion 1H19. The data show that this large difference, totaling $8 billion,...

President Ramaphosa remains focused on his investment drive to revive SA’s economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Sep 2019

Towards the end of August 2019, President Ramaphosa attended the seventh Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD VII) in Japan. The aim of the summit is to expand partnership between Japan and African states. However, the President of South Africa (SA) used this meeting as an...

Difficult but necessary tax reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro returns to the presidency after medical leave. In the Senate, Tasso Jereissati makes changes to the Pension Reform text and presents his report on plenary amendments. In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank meeting to set the benchmark interest rate. The government ...

Economics: Stable finance vs. bullish growth
MEXICO · Report · 16 Sep 2019

The minister of finance deemed the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s 2020 budget assumptions and proposals “conservative”, but many analysts, specialists and ratings agencies beg to differ, deeming them “optimistic”. Conscious of the extent to which whatever credibility it...

Politics: Words, deeds and budgets
MEXICO · Report · 16 Sep 2019

If a government wants to assure that it will deliver on the promises it has made, it has to come up with budgets that are in keeping with such commitments to the public. But when we look at the federal government’s revenue and spending budgets for 2020, there appear to be a series of disconnects ...

Hungary ranks first in the EU’s league table on growth
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Sep 2019

According to Eurostat, Hungary recorded the highest GDP growth within the EU in Q2 this year, following a second place taken in this important league table in the previous quarter. Apparently, good growth performance in the face of a weak all-European cycle is a regional phenomenon, as the new EU...

Belarus and Russia integrate economies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2019

A secret economic integration program was agreed by Belarus and Russia on September 3. The objective is to have a harmonized tax code, civil code and foreign trade regime by January 2021. The two countries will have a common macroeconomic policy, currency control system and payment system. They w...

The industry’s poor performance and hope in consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Sep 2019

The outlook for GDP growth is disheartening. Despite the surprisingly good performance of industrial GDP in the second quarter, when it grew by 0.7% in relation to the first quarter, there are no signs that this was trend change. The monthly survey of industrial production conducted by the IBGE s...

Investment portal launched in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2019

Russian internet company Yandex is considering setting up an investment portal with VTB which is Russia's second biggest state owned banks. The aim is to start a fintech service to sell equities and funds to small scale investors. It will be called Yandex.Investment. The news has not yet been off...

Much uncertainty concerning the stability of the next government
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Sep 2019

Inflation in August reached 0.2% m/m and 0.6% y/y, similar to expectation, while core inflation reached 0.9% y/y. Rapid improvement in the CA surplus in Q2 2019 and robust FDI are shekel supportive. We still do not envision further accommodative monetary policy in Israel, with growth steady and t...

Big, fascinating but scary changes
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Sep 2019

Ukraine has never experienced anything like this. Everything has started to shift from its traditional places. There’s a new, clean Prosecutor General, and the intention to launch a land market seems absolutely serious. Most Ukrainians remain enthusiastic about everything that is happening. The p...

Gulf weekly: Houthis strike Saudi oil sites and Bolton is out
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Sep 2019

Another dramatic week in the Gulf as the Houthi rebels in Yemen temporarily knocked out 5.7m b/d of Saudi oil production offline in drone strikes. Prior to this, the surprise sacking of John Bolton had raised hopes for an easing of US-Iran tensions. There was also plenty going on during the week ...

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