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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Will the President’s Jobs Summit help revive South Africa’s employment creation?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Oct 2018

The South African government hosted the Jobs Summit 2018 that took place from 4th to 5th October 2018. Earlier this year (February 2018), President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his maiden State of the Nation Address (SONA), highlighting that the creation of jobs (especially for the youth) will be at...

Politics: AMLO, Security and the Generals
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2018

In recent days President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador revived and expanded upon a campaign promise to establish some type of civil guard to absorb the nation’s military and public security forces, despite the fact that his long time aide and hand picked choice for minister of public security...

South Africa may soon have yet another Finance Minister - A developing story.
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 08 Oct 2018

Speculations are ripe that Minister Nene may soon be out of his job. This emerged following his testimony to the Zondo Commission of Inquiry - alternatively known as the State Capture Commission. On Friday, Minister Nene disclosed his meetings with the Gupta brothers, visiting their business prem...

Rate hold expected today on low core inflation and strong shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Oct 2018

Despite the lack of data due to the holiday season, the little data we have points to some improvement following a weak Q218. - The BoI composite index increased by 0.36% m/m in July-Aug. - Debit card purchases increased by 5.1% saar in June-August. - Manufacturing is up 2.4% m/m in July, f...

Rethinking regional strategy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2018

Regional elections outcomes in September 2018 came as an unpleasant surprise to the Kremlin after many years of tight control. All the federal entities that got to the second tour of the governors’ elections have either resulted in a loss for the Kremlin-backed candidate or the outcome is still u...

COSTA RICA: Fiscal Reform Bill advances in congress
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 08 Oct 2018 · 1 response

Despite the turbulence of a widespread strike called since September 10th by several public sector unions, demanding the withdrawal of the fiscal reform bill, the Congress continued its discussion and approved it, by a 35-22 vote, in the first reading on Friday October 5th, 2018. The legislative ...

Yoy consumer inflation likely to rise temporarily in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2018

KSH is scheduled to put out its CPI-inflation data for September at 9am Budapest time tomorrow. We expect the yoy headline rate to rise further, to 3.6% from August's 3.4%. This forecast is based essentially on three factors:(1) a likely 1.4% mom rise by fuel prices, on the back of a 1.5% mom inc...

Choppy waters ahead...
TURKEY · Report · 07 Oct 2018 · 1 response

The recent relative improvement in market sentiment has shown the importance of improving relations with the US, and of orthodox economic policies, as manifested by CBRT’s September rate hike. But further progress is between the lips of President Erdogan, who reveals little sign of conduct change...

International actors will be key
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2018

With the Venezuelan crisis spilling across its borders, pressure on the Maduro regime is coming from all directions: sanctions, formal diplomatic actions, critical reports from multilateral agencies, and tough rhetoric from the United States. Venezuela was high on the list of concerns of the usua...

Political Overview: Beneath and beyond the waning “Ramaphoria”
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Oct 2018

​This is a Special Report on South Africa by Dr. Mzukisi Qobo, formerly Chief Director of Trade Policy at the Department of Trade and Industry. In the past eight months, South Africa has experienced a slight change in the tone of policy. A number of moderate reforms have been carried out, incl...

Inflation rises; more policy tightening expected
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Oct 2018

The headline inflation rate continued to rise, reaching 6.7% in September from 6.4% in August. The uptrend reflects a high 0.9% month-on-month inflation rate, which may be traced to higher prices of food, particularly rice, meat, fish and vegetables, and fuel-related costs, including transportati...

Bolsonaro wave interrupted in SP and MG
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2018

The last four electoral polls conducted by Ibope in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the most populous states in the country, show that the pro-Bolsonaro wave has plateaued. Comparing yesterday’s poll (October 3) with Monday’s poll, Bolsonaro only continued to grow in Rio de Janeiro, w...

China’s Belt and Road: Debt trap – for China?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Oct 2018

I spent three days at the end of September in the city of Astana in Kazakhstan, at a conference that was part of a larger effort by Nazarbayev University to create a China Centre. Kazakhstan is feeling pressure due to its location between China and Russia and is seeking greater depth of knowledge...

Bolsonaro vs. Haddad contest practically certain
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2018

The Ibope poll released yesterday, October 3, reinforces the idea that the presidential race will most likely be decided in a runoff round between Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT). Compared to Monday’s Ibope poll, the candidates oscillated within the 2-percentage point margin of erro...

Will the revised new Mining Charter spur more investment in mining?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Oct 2018

Echoing President Ramaphosa’s statement during his delivery of the economic stimulus package on September 21, Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe argued that with the new Mining Charter 2018, gazetted on September 27, the government aims to create more regulatory certainty in the sector. In...

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