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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

After sticks, stones
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Mar 2018

Ecuadorians have been shocked by shameful political scandals around abuses of political power and corruption that have so far put a Vice President in jail, have demoted the president of the National Assembly and have the Attorney General waiting for an impeachment. In addition, for the first...

​President Kukzynski has resigned
PERU · In Brief · 21 Mar 2018

A few minutes ago, through a television address, the president announced his resignation thus avoiding the impeachment procedure that was scheduled for tomorrow.During a seven-minute speech, Kuczynski blamed the opposition majority in Congress pointing to their frivolous and arbitrary behavior, w...

Kuczynski likely to be ousted
PERU · In Brief · 21 Mar 2018

Yesterday's revelations of attempts to change votes to avoid the president's impeachment on the part of dissident members of the Fuerza Popular party has all but decided that he will be ousted tomorrow. During a press conference, the spokesman for Fuerza Popular Daniel Salaverry accompanied by ot...

Presidential succession: Context and perspectives
MEXICO · Presentation · 21 Mar 2018

The presidential election will take place in the context of a political crisis, with government approval at historic lows. The results of the election remain uncertain, and risks remain high.

More positive economic metrics out of South Africa as the deficit on the current account narrows to 2.5% of GDP in 2017
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Mar 2018

Following the notable widening in the seasonally adjusted and annualized trade surplus to R92 billion during the third quarter of 2017, the trade balance narrowed to (a still substantial) R74 billion in the last quarter of 2017 as reported by the SA Reserve Bank. This was a result of a more prono...

Economics: No clear consensus on inflation
MEXICO · Report · 20 Mar 2018

Inflation in Mexico has proven to be more stubborn this year than monetary authorities had earlier projected, and additional pressures are looming. Higher prices for LP gas, some produce, and certain goods have been especially apparent in recent inflation reports and prompted both Banco de México...

Politics: Security system struggles
MEXICO · Report · 19 Mar 2018

The decision by Jalisco state and federal authorities to sequester all members of the Tlaquepaque police force and directly assume control over public security in the municipality was immediately viewed through a partisan lens in a state where the PRI governor has long been warring with the oppos...

The gubernatorial races and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Mar 2018

On the economic agenda, we highlight the release of the GDP preview for January and the Central Bank’s decision on the benchmark interest rate. Former President Lula begins another caravan throughout the South region on March 19, closing in Curitiba (PR) on March 28. A new Ipsos poll on the presi...

Can the expansion of consumption guarantee 3% GDP growth?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Mar 2018

The growth of household consumption, spurred by monetary policy, has been the driving force behind the recovery. However, the previous quarter witnessed a substantial deceleration, and if one takes real retail sales as a bellwether of consumption (which, as reiterated in recent reports, is an exc...

Rapid growth and moderate inflation
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Mar 2018

The odds for the April parliamentary election have become slightly more even since a candidate supported by all opposition parties won against Fidesz in an interim local election held in late February. This event has increased the willingness of opposition parties to cooperate in the national vot...

What are the signs regarding “true” growth in 2018?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Mar 2018

Our projection for economic growth of 3% in 2018 implicitly rests on a significant acceleration of the quarterly GDP growth rates – from 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 1.1% per quarter this year. The latest data indicate that GDP only expanded by 0.5% in the first three months of 2018, pos...

Ant Financial’s aggressive strategy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Mar 2018

Ant Financial operates through two businesses, Ant Credit Pay, which is a “virtual” credit card customers use to buy goods through Alibaba’s online platforms, and Ant Cash Now, which provides loans in cash issued directly to users who pay in installments with interest. The capital is supplied pri...

Early elections?
TURKEY · Report · 18 Mar 2018

Early Sunday morning Turkish commandos entered the center of Afrin to join what we think will be a bloody urban warfare. Since we are not war correspondents, there is not much to write about Afrin, except expressing a hope for minimal casualties. Instead, we turn our attention to the question ...

2018–2019 forecast: Hyperinflation, recession, and default
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Our outlook for 2018–2019 has the economy crumbling and hyperinflation worsening under Maduro’s policies. GDP shrinks by a quarter over two years, and inflation easily reaches six digits by 2019. Real wages and interest rates plunge to unprecedented depths. Oil prices rise to $54 a barrel, but ex...

Mexico’s economy in 2018: Moderate deceleration alongside financial volatility
MEXICO · Presentation · 14 Mar 2018 · 3 responses

The year 2018 includes a growth slowdown, financial volatility and growing uncertainty into the election. Mexico faces three main economic risks, two of them since 2017...

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