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Kazakhstan calls early presidential election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2019

Tokayev was only inaugurated last month as acting president. On April 9 he announced a snap election will be held on June 9. The election was due to be held in April 2020. Why is he bringing it forward? He is capitalizing on his honeymoon with the public. Election have been brought forward before...

​Istanbul race, S-400 quarrel to go into extra innings
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2019

A legal arm-wrestling between AKP and CHP continues unabated in Istanbul, as – so far—CHP getting the better of the deal.Turkey’s supreme election body High Election Council (HEC) appears to be adopting a middle-of-the road approach to opposing briefs by parties and demands for recounts, but ever...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Apr 2019

Following a number of unimaginable errors and blunders, which eroded a relevant part of his popularity, President Bolsonaro has emitted some positive signs in the past few days. The future of the economy and the government itself depends on the establishing of a less erratic presidency. The econo...

Inflation beat the analyst consensus again in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2019

But unfortunately in the wrong direction. The headline rate came out at 0.7% mom, 3.7% yoy, the latter up from 3.1% yoy in February. This indeed beat expectations, as the analyst consensus (including us) expected 3.5% and the MNB itself projected 3.6% in its late-March inflation report.As a matte...

In his first 100 days, Bolsonaro splits public opinion
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro will present an overview of the first 100 days of his administration on Thursday, April 11. He will also meet with the national presidents of six political parties. In the Lower House, we highlight the report on Pension Reform that will be presented in the Constitution an...

Economics: Evidence of public finance risks
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2019

Mexico’s public finance results remained unfavorable through the first two months of 2019, confirming that officials have very little financial room in which to operate, much less in which to fulfill the new government’s targets on the level of such central issues as expanding investment, increas...

AMLO’s Presidencialismo redux
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2019

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s continues to make progress in concentrating governing power directly in his hands as he appears intent on reviving the sort of presidencialista system that governed Mexico throughout most of the 20th century. This approach will also entail drawing on legal ...

The signs of weak economic activity persist
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Apr 2019

The tenuous recovery of GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 was solely due to the service sector, with industrial GDP oscillating in recent quarters at a level almost 15% below the previous peak, reached in the (distant) first quarter of 2014 (Graph 1). The most recent data show that the country’s indust...

Rate stability expected today, possibly with a more hawkish tone
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Apr 2019

We expect a rate hold decision today but with a slightly more hawkish tone, noting robust growth in Q1 2019 and higher inflation expectations. Fiscal policy remains expansionary, and with rapid expenditure growth and weak revenues in Q1 2019, some form of fiscal consolidation is expected by the n...

Fuel price agreement agreed in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2019

The oil sector has agreed to prolong its gentleman's agreement with the government to keep oil prices as static as possible. Vice Premier Dmitry Kozak was pleased to announce this on 5 April. The government considers it important to maintain price continuity as oil taxes are changing and oil refi...

Headline CPI-inflation to have risen again in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Apr 2019

CPI-inflation data for March is due on Tuesday, April 9. Following 0.6% mom, 3.1% yoy for the headline rate in February, we expect 0.5% mom, 3.5% yoy, i.e. the year-on-year rate to pull away from the 3% target in the upward direction.Much of this would be due to fuel prices, which we see at +2.5%...

The President's Choice
TURKEY · Report · 07 Apr 2019

AKP has some valid reasons to demand recounts, which have now spread to 22 provinces, with MHP emulating its bigger partner. However, election councils breaking with precedent in assessing the appeals and HDP and IYIP being discriminated against in their appeals smacks of a con-game. By early ...

Investment data for Jan-Mar 2019
INDIA · Report · 05 Apr 2019

One of the most important elements of business cycle conditions in India is investment. The official GDP data yields poor estimates of investment demand. We construct aggregates using micro data about individual projects. Overall investment under implementation grew by about 10% in the last five ...

China’s slowing property market and the impact on economic stability
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Apr 2019

The China property market has regained investors’ attention as the most important pillar of a recovery story. However, recent data on land sales, property financing, and consumption trends suggest analysts may be too optimistic. Our views are more pessimistic: * Weakening property prices...

Could Margarita break the PLD deadlock?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 05 Apr 2019

Robust growth and low inflation marked the beginning of 2019, with economic activity expanding 5.9% between January and February, and February inflation at 0.37%. Accumulated inflation through February was 0.2%, and annualized inflation was 1.19% -- well below the lower limit of the Monetary Prog...

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