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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Disregard the Downgrade
CHINA · Report · 10 Nov 2017

Q3 growth was stable, though slightly lower. GDP was up 6.8% y/y, down 0.1 pps from Q2, while industrial output was up 6.3% y/y, down 0.5 pps. But industrial output in real terms might be worse than official statistics show. Fixed asset investment has been weakening, and was up 5.8% y/y in Q3. Af...

Parliament approves new privatization law in first reading
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Nov 2017

Parliament approved new privatization law in first reading. The key features of the law include (a) introduction of independent investment advisors that accompany sale of large state owned enterprises, (b) sale of small stakes of state property through Internet platform, (c) streamlined procedure...

At last, (relatively) good inflation data came out for October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2017

CPI-inflation was 0.3% mom, 2.2% yoy in October, the latter down from 2.5% in the previous month. Core inflation was 0.3% mom, 2.7% yoy, the latter also down from 2.9% in September. Non-fuel inflation reached 0.3% mom and an unchanged 2.4% yoy, whereas all three of the MNB's adjusted core inflati...

Economic Recovery: Steady As She Goes
UKRAINE · Forecast · 08 Nov 2017

Ukraine’s economy is steadily recovering now. During H1, GDP grew 2.4% y/y, twice as fast as forecast. Local investments grew 22.2% y/y, and private consumption grew 4.7%, driving growth, despite the continuing decline in industrial output, and contraction in farm production. We expect a 2% y/y G...

This year’s sixth wage hike
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Nov 2017

The sixth salary adjustment of 2017 came into effect on November 1, 2017. The so-called integral minimum wage, which the government now calls "the wage that protects the people” rises by 40 percent over the level set just two months ago with a 30 percent increase in the base salary and a 48 perce...

Inflation reaches the 50% milestone
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Nov 2017

We revised up our October estimate up to 50.0 percent from 45.1 percent in our previous report. This significant adjustment reflects strong price increases in October in many food items, including over 100 percent hikes in chicken and beef.

Parliament approves new election law in first reading
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Nov 2017 · 1 response

Today parliament approved in first reading new Election Code which envisages open voting lists on parliamentary elections. Open lists were among the key demands of October street protests. Open lists eliminate large part of political corruption since leaders of the parties will not be able to sec...

Alibaba and Tencent’s Global Strategy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Nov 2017

Summary • Domestic Competition. Tight competition for payments within China is pushing Alibaba and Tencent to explore overseas expansion. • Financial Services. Both companies currently rely on Chinese tourists and business travelers. In future, the easiest entry access is via local joint ventu...

Corruption scandals hit political parties hard
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 07 Nov 2017

In Q3 economic activity seems to have recovered as a result of the recent monetary stimulus. In July, GDP growth (measured IMAE) was 3.1%, and in August it was 5.1%. Despite the upturn, the trend seems to point to a slowdown in growth and a convergence towards the long-term rate (5%) or a moderat...

USA relaxes visa ban on Turkey, but tensions fail to decline
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Nov 2017 · 1 response

USA consulates in Turkey will begin evaluating visa applications two hours a day as of today, after the Embassy posted a statement in its website claiming that State Department had received assurances from Ankara no employees will be detained for political charges. The Turkish Embassy in Washingt...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Nov 2017

President Temer has managed to forestall three attempted investigations of corruption: one in the Superior Electoral Tribunal and two in the Chamber of Deputies. To achieve this, he has spent a relevant part of his scant political capital, condemning the country to 11 months of agony until the ne...

Week of November 6
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2017

After a slow week, Congress resumes activity following the publication of fiscal austerity provisional measures. Federal civil servants are organizing protests to take place on Friday, November 10, against the postponement of salary increases. In the economy, we highlight the release of inflation...

Expectations improved after the post-electoral announcements
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 06 Nov 2017

After winning the mid-term election, President Macri outlined his future policies in a short and clear speech on October 30, 2017. He announced that his government will pursue policies aimed at reducing poverty, opening the Argentine economy to the world, fighting inflation and reinvigorating gro...

Politics: Spiraling Murder Rate Largely Ignored
MEXICO · Report · 06 Nov 2017 · 1 response

The latest official data showed the death toll from intentional homicides (2,564) made September the second deadliest month on record, surpassed only by June’s tally. In relative terms – murders per 100,000 inhabitants – we probably have already surpassed the previous peak year of 2011, when the...

Economics: Pemex Profits Belie Capex Effects
MEXICO · Report · 06 Nov 2017

When releasing its preliminary results for the third quarter of 2017 last week, Petróleos Mexicanos once again decided to emphasize the results of its efforts to strengthen the company’s financial health while trying to avoid as much as possible the extent to which oil and gas production has cont...

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