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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Return of Growth: But How Strong?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 11 Sep 2017

In the midst of risks posed by the difficulties of executing the fiscal adjustment and vagaries of the political crisis, the positive contribution of monetary policy deserves attention. The SELIC rate should continue falling, to 7% at the end of the year, when inflation will be 3.2%, well below t...

Economics: Survey Hints at Lower Poverty
MEXICO · Report · 11 Sep 2017

Mexico’s National Statistics Institute updated our understanding of trends in household income and spending, as well as the dynamics of poverty, with the release of its bi-annual National Survey of Household Income and Spending (ENIGH). Unfortunately, the latest report, which was based on data co...

Will the SELIC Rate be 7% at the End of the Easing Cycle in December?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Sep 2017

At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank cut the SELIC rate by 1 percentage point, but made it clear that smaller cuts will occur at subsequent meetings. The market consensus – and our estimate – is that the SELIC rate will reach 7% in December. But will this be the end of the cycle? On the on...

Politics: Potential Shakeups for 2018 Scenarios
MEXICO · Report · 11 Sep 2017 · 1 response

The first hours of the fall session of Congress got off to a rocky start as internal factional strife in one party became enmeshed in a broader dispute over whether the current attorney general would continue to preside over the prosecutorial branch of the criminal justice system for the next nin...

Construction, Exports Drive Q2 Growth
TURKEY · Report · 11 Sep 2017

Turkish economy expanded at a broadly expected 5.1% rate in Q2, y/y, after a similar performance in Q1 (of a slightly upwardly-revised 5.2%). In quarterly/sequential terms, growth accelerated to 2.1% in Q2, up from previous quarter’s 1.3% rate. On the expenditure side, based on year-on-year d...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2017

The arrest order by a New York court for the former Economy Minister Mr. Zafer Caglayan could be the harbinger of new tensions between Turkey and the U.S., as well as a period of trouble for the banking industry. Several EU members went on record turning down Germany’s request to end accession ta...

Hurricane Irma caused little damage in the DR
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Sep 2017

Hurricane Irma caused little damage in the DR, mostly in the North Coast. The reason is that its eye, where maximum wind speed is registered (175 mph), passed nearly 75 miles off the coast. Damage was mostly caused by floods by sea waves. Although tourist areas were hit, hotels and facilities wer...

Control issues
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2017

Russia’s leadership had not really expected that a long-delayed response to expulsion of Russian diplomats from the US and Congressional anti-Russian sanctions would be met with yet another move from the US. After Russian diplomatic properties in the US were closed by a US decision, the Kremlin u...

Tense politics yet improving activity
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Sep 2017 · 1 response

After relatively positive results for the government in the recent primary elections, the political heat ahead of the actual midterm elections is increasing, with particularly harsh cross-fire between Cambiemos and the Kirchnerists. In what seems to be an attempt to shift public focus away fr...

The mainstream view on Indian growth is shifting
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Sep 2017 · 1 response

For a sustained period, Ila Patnaik and I have argued that India got into a downturn in 2011 and has not yet come out of it. This was inconsistent with the mainstream discourse. The conventional view of financial firm economists was that growth had crashed with the 2013 currency defense but recov...

Inflation up in August, industrial output growth temporarily (?) down in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2017

Inflation data for August came out marginally higher than market expectation, and pretty much in line with our forecast, this morning. The headline rate jumped to 2.6% yoy, quite sharply up from 2.1% yoy in July, despite just 0.1% rise in the CPI in August alone. Just as we wrote in our previous ...

Record inflation in August, possible slowdown in September
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Sep 2017

We adjust our August estimated monthly inflation rate up to 32.6 percent from 28.0 percent. Year-on-year inflation rises to 748 percent and accumulated inflation for the year through 31 August 2017 rises to 357 percent. The push in August came from a stronger than expected increase in the pric...

Embarking on a New Growth Cycle
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Sep 2017

The economy is performing far better than expected. Derzhstat, the statistics agency, reported a 2.4% y/y GDP increase in Q2, twice faster than we initially projected. Booming local investment — +22.5% y/y for H1 — and recovering consumption are the drivers. Remarkably, this result was achieved d...

​Really, Mrs. Merkel?
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2017 · 1 response

Pressured by her Social Democrat rival Mr. Schultz, Chancellor Merkel was forced to promise to end or suspend Turkish accession on Sunday in a televised debate. I waited until Wednesday to cover this story, because she seemed evasive in her response to Schultz. However in Tuesday, in her speech t...

The South African Economy Ends its Technical Recession
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Sep 2017

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualized quarterly GDP grew by 2.5% during the second quarter of 2017. This is a welcome outcome, largely expected by the market (as high frequency data was pointing to a positive growth outcome). This means South Africa is out of the technical recession w...

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