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Argentina databank Mar 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 17
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Peru databank Mar 27
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NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Tax reform: down to the wire? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Sep 2017
In the first installment on this subject last week, we noted the wide gap between the finance department’s tax reform proposal, originally estimated to yield P157 billion in incremental revenues in the first full year of implementation, and Senate bill 1592 drafted by the ways and means committee...
Green Shoots at Last?
CHILE · Report · 28 Sep 2017
Given the tone of September’s Central Bank Monetary Policy Report, we think it’s extremely unlikely that the Bank will cut rates further. Still, the IPOM introduced a downward bias for the short-term inflation forecast. A further fall in inflation could be a game changer, but the closer we get to...
MTP: Sorry, But It Doesn’t Hang Together
TURKEY · Report · 27 Sep 2017
Today the government announced the broad outlines of its Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2018-20. What we have below is our preliminary reactions, based on the presentation (in Turkish) made by the authorities. We shall follow this up with more thoughts, if need be, once the full document and more...
Ratings Downgrade is a Misleading Overreaction
CHINA · Report · 27 Sep 2017
Growth weakened in August. Industrial output was up 6% y/y, down 0.4 pps from July, and down 0.9 pps from Q2, which represented its lowest level of the year. Fixed asset investment, up 4.9%, was likewise at its lowest level of the year, down 3.4 pps from Q2. But the ex-factory price index of ...
Slugging Along, with Few Hopes for 2018
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Sep 2017
Q2 GDP growth figures clearly showed a weak economy, struggling to reach a mere 1.3% growth. Key indicators released since then show that the economy is still underwater – but also that it’s giving off nascent signs of recovery. The Industrial Confidence Index, after almost a semester of decl...
Economic Outlook
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
A benign international scenario is favoring Brazil, inflation is falling across the board, and there is a clear increase in consumption, but the fiscal and political pictures are troublesome.
Monetizing debt does not relieve China’s debt burden
CHINA FINANCIAL · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
The relative pick-up in nominal GDP growth and the deflator reduces the cost of servicing the debt in real terms, but households absorb part of the cost by providing borrowers with hidden rate subsidies. Policies involving any form of monetization to manage debt, such as low lending rates relativ...
The Indian economy
INDIA · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017 · 1 response
Aggregating micro data shows a different story than official data. Challenges remain for the Central Bank and the banking industry.
One trillion dollar economy
INDONESIA · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
Prospects remain bright, bolstered by stable macro conditions, a rising middle class, and improving institutions. Infrastructure development is a key focus of the government, especially in tourism.
Economic Risk Balance 2017-2018
MEXICO · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
The economy is growing more rapidly, nourished by domestic consumption and non-oil exports, but risks remain, including US protectionism, rising inflation and political uncertainty.
In Need of a Confidence Boost
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
Growth remains fragile, and private sector investment will be the chief determinant of meaningful expansion, but the current political turmoil has led to low confidence among business and the consumer.
Fundamentals vs. Rabbits
TURKEY · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
Turkey’s risk profile is set to rise gradually, probably culminating in a series of elections to begin by mid-2018. Growth this year has been saved, but in the absence of new “tricks” or “rabbits” it is likely to slow next year to around 3%.
Politics: Presidential Ratings Near Rock Bottom
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2017
The latest GEA-ISA nationwide poll of registered voters shows President Enrique Peña Nieto’s disapproval ratings have reached historical highs as the public displays a deep sense of pessimism about how things are likely to evolve in the election year. The administration might possibly glean sn...
Week of September 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2017 · 1 response
The second PGR accusation against President Michel Temer begins its progress in the Lower House. The rapporteur will be chosen on Tuesday, September 26. The Lower House and Senate will also vote on Political Reform proposals. Congressmen will try to reach a deal with the Ministry of Finance on th...
How much equity capital is needed for India’s banks?
INDIA · Report · 25 Sep 2017
In a banking crisis, banks are over-leveraged. We use historical experience to identify certain levels of leverage, which we claim are normative values for the maximal permissible leverage of a bank. We work out the additional equity capital that should go into Indian banking in order to achieve ...