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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30
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Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Explanatory statement from the MNB: no policy cycle, next revision in late June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019
MNB vice governor Márton Nagy made an interesting statement at an investment seminar today, providing some explanation, but also a refining, to the view presented by governor Matolcsy right after the Monetary Council meeting on Tuesday, March 26.Mr. Nagy essentially repeated the Governor's words ...
South Africa’s May 2019 general elections polls – let the race begin
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Mar 2019
South Africa’s general elections are fast approaching, and the race is heating up. The election date of May 8, 2019 was announced by President Ramaphosa during the State of the Nation (SONA) address at the beginning of February 2019, but the proclamation was officially signed by the President on ...
Essential CIS Politics: Russia is surprisingly relaxed about the threat of more US sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2019
* Russia is surprisingly relaxed about the threat of more US sanctions. * The Ukrainian presidential election is wide open. * The TAPI pipeline could be a game changer for Turkmenistan.
Final Words: CHP-IYIP have wind in their sails
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019 · 1 response
It is time to spell out my final predictions on Sunday’s municipal elections. Before I cut to the chase, a few words on my method and thought process needs to be said, because covering this election campaign was a harrowing experience. Since the 2010 referendum, I used a trimmed mean of poll resu...
Russian shipbuilding stalls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019
Last year Russia built 89 large and medium sized ships. This includes 46 civilian and 43 military vessels. The cost was USD 2.6 billion. In 2017 the figure was 98 ships for USD 1.6 billion. 70% of the value or the orders comes from the Russian Navy. The increase in the money spent on ships is mai...
How Ankara “tamed” the currency market? A case study in absurdity
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Mar 2019 · 2 responses
I had to delay my plan to say the final word on approaching municipal elections to Thursday, on account of the bizarre measures taken by the Turkish authorities to defend the currency and their permanency.As I write these lines Turkish sources reported (quoting Reuters) that the emergency measure...
The MNB was seen balancing between loose and tight today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2019
The MNB acted somewhat strangely today. It carried out its first tightening moves in seven years, by raising the O/N deposit rate by 10 bps, to -0.05%, and by reducing its target on the quarterly average excess liquidity of banks by HUF100bn, which should imply a HUF130bn reduction of the existin...
A few thoughts on the recent market turmoil
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2019 · 1 response
Turkish markets have gone wild again in the past few days, which started with a sharp depreciation of the lira on Friday, when the currency weakened by about 5%-6% against the dollar on a single day. In response, the CBRT has decided to tighten liquidity over the weekend, altogether cancelling li...
Political coordination needs improvement and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2019 · 1 response
The president of the CCJ in the Lower House is expected to announce the rapporteur for Pension Reform. Minister Paulo Guedes takes part in public hearing in the CCJ on Tuesday. He will also speak about the Kandir Law in the Senate. Dissatisfied with the government’s articulation, federal represen...
Economics: More reluctance to take on new debt
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2019
Financing to the non financial private sector has been waning since mid 2018 as businesses and households hold back from seeking credit as they take stock of rising interest rates, sources of uncertainty and the slowing of the economy. The latest central bank data shows declining demand for, or ...
Correa is not dead
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Mar 2019
Ecuador finally signed an Extended Fund Facility agreement with the IMF, which will help the country return to a more sustainable economic model over the next three years. The IMF will provide $4.2 million of gradual financing during the life of the agreement, and other multilateral organizations...
Equal terms for foreign firms
CHINA · Report · 25 Mar 2019
Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced during his annual address to the People’s Congress of Beijing on March 5th that China’s growth target for 2019 would be in the 6% to 6.5% range. Another key takeaway is a significant 3 pps cut in value-added tax rate for manufacturers, to 13%. Industrial out...
U.S. sanctions against Bandes
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 25 Mar 2019
On Friday, 22 March 2019, the U.S. imposed sanctions against the Bank of Economic and Social Development of Venezuela (Bandes) and four institutions it controls: Banco de Venezuela and Banco Bicentenario in Venezuela, Bandes Uruguay in Uruguay and Banco Prodem in Bolivia. All five have been desig...
Politics: Recall referendum, re-election and 4T
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2019
In response to protests from opposition politicians that he is laying the groundwork to remain in office after his term expires in 2024, last Monday President López Obrador signed a commitment that he would not stand for re-election. The main issue in dispute involves a pair of proposals involvin...
The Monetary Policy route
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Mar 2019
It has long been known that monetary policy decisions must consider the conditions coming from fiscal policy. What is the likelihood attributed by the market to approval of a robust pension reform – the most important condition necessary to guarantee fiscal consolidation? Looking at asset prices ...