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​Final Words: CHP-IYIP have wind in their sails
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019 · 1 response

It is time to spell out my final predictions on Sunday’s municipal elections. Before I cut to the chase, a few words on my method and thought process needs to be said, because covering this election campaign was a harrowing experience. Since the 2010 referendum, I used a trimmed mean of poll resu...

Russian shipbuilding stalls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2019

Last year Russia built 89 large and medium sized ships. This includes 46 civilian and 43 military vessels. The cost was USD 2.6 billion. In 2017 the figure was 98 ships for USD 1.6 billion. 70% of the value or the orders comes from the Russian Navy. The increase in the money spent on ships is mai...

How Ankara “tamed” the currency market? A case study in absurdity
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Mar 2019 · 2 responses

I had to delay my plan to say the final word on approaching municipal elections to Thursday, on account of the bizarre measures taken by the Turkish authorities to defend the currency and their permanency.As I write these lines Turkish sources reported (quoting Reuters) that the emergency measure...

The MNB was seen balancing between loose and tight today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2019

The MNB acted somewhat strangely today. It carried out its first tightening moves in seven years, by raising the O/N deposit rate by 10 bps, to -0.05%, and by reducing its target on the quarterly average excess liquidity of banks by HUF100bn, which should imply a HUF130bn reduction of the existin...

​A few thoughts on the recent market turmoil
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2019 · 1 response

Turkish markets have gone wild again in the past few days, which started with a sharp depreciation of the lira on Friday, when the currency weakened by about 5%-6% against the dollar on a single day. In response, the CBRT has decided to tighten liquidity over the weekend, altogether cancelling li...

Political coordination needs improvement and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2019 · 1 response

The president of the CCJ in the Lower House is expected to announce the rapporteur for Pension Reform. Minister Paulo Guedes takes part in public hearing in the CCJ on Tuesday. He will also speak about the Kandir Law in the Senate. Dissatisfied with the government’s articulation, federal represen...

Economics: More reluctance to take on new debt
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2019

Financing to the non financial private sector has been waning since mid 2018 as businesses and households hold back from seeking credit as they take stock of rising interest rates, sources of uncertainty and the slowing of the economy. The latest central bank data shows declining demand for, or ...

Correa is not dead
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Mar 2019

Ecuador finally signed an Extended Fund Facility agreement with the IMF, which will help the country return to a more sustainable economic model over the next three years. The IMF will provide $4.2 million of gradual financing during the life of the agreement, and other multilateral organizations...

Equal terms for foreign firms
CHINA · Report · 25 Mar 2019

Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced during his annual address to the People’s Congress of Beijing on March 5th that China’s growth target for 2019 would be in the 6% to 6.5% range. Another key takeaway is a significant 3 pps cut in value-added tax rate for manufacturers, to 13%. Industrial out...

U.S. sanctions against Bandes
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 25 Mar 2019

On Friday, 22 March 2019, the U.S. imposed sanctions against the Bank of Economic and Social Development of Venezuela (Bandes) and four institutions it controls: Banco de Venezuela and Banco Bicentenario in Venezuela, Bandes Uruguay in Uruguay and Banco Prodem in Bolivia. All five have been desig...

Politics: Recall referendum, re-election and 4T
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2019

In response to protests from opposition politicians that he is laying the groundwork to remain in office after his term expires in 2024, last Monday President López Obrador signed a commitment that he would not stand for re-election. The main issue in dispute involves a pair of proposals involvin...

The Monetary Policy route
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Mar 2019

It has long been known that monetary policy decisions must consider the conditions coming from fiscal policy. What is the likelihood attributed by the market to approval of a robust pension reform – the most important condition necessary to guarantee fiscal consolidation? Looking at asset prices ...

Tomorrow's Monetary Council: most analysts expect a little tightening of some kind
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2019

The Monetary Council is to hold its March rate-setting meeting tomorrow, this time combined with the discussion of the Q1 inflation report, i.e. an especially good time to carry out a policy change if any. Most analysts seem to agree that some kind of tightening is likely on this occasion, but th...

Data in early 2019 point to some acceleration
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Mar 2019

Initial data for Q1 2019 point to some acceleration in activity, as underlined by the BoI Composite Index. Despite signs of improvement in growth we do not envision a rate hike this year, unless inflation surprises on the upside. Housing inventory is expected to increase in the coming quarters, s...

Groundhog Day
TURKEY · Report · 24 Mar 2019

Last week’s polls indicate the opposition is gaining momentum across the nation, though there is still not sufficient evidence to call for a CHP-IYIP victory in Istanbul. Polls also determine that up to 10% of potential voters may be still undecided, with vast majority coming from AKP-MHP axis. R...

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