Services

In compliance with the Constitutional deadline, last week the Executive presented to Congress the budget bill for 2014. The proposed budget sets a deficit target equivalent to 2.8% of GDP, a level similar to that for 2013. Although no one was expecting a drastic reduction in primary spendin...

SA Political Economy Dilemmas - October 2013

SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 08 Oct 2013

The IMF Article IV puts the “cat amongst the pigeons” in South Africa’s highly charged political economy environment. Over the past year or so, South Africa’s labour unions have raised the political and ideological temperature substantially. A blend of binding factors has been at play. Decl...

Government Spending: Back to 2011?

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 08 Oct 2013

The Finance Department reported today that government non-interest expenditures grew 7.4% in August, significantly down from 30% the previous month and double-digit growth rates since April. While we would like to see more data points before drawing a definitive conclusion, this slowdown ma...

Passing a Point of Inflection

MEXICO - Report 08 Oct 2013

Economic Panorama

Last week we discussed the factors that have most contributed to the way in which the Mexican economy began to get bogged down during the first half of the year. In this edition we turn our attention to updated indicators – such as ...

Democratization Package update: Don’t Expect More, but Less

TURKEY - In Brief 07 Oct 2013

I’m asked by a lot of readers whether the recently unveiled Reform or Democratization Package heralds the return of the “pragmatic, reformist” AKP. The answer is unfortunately NO. In fact instead of adding to the gains by supplemental initiatives addressing the groups neglected in the...

Normalisation of Monetary Policy Continuing

INDIA - In Brief 07 Oct 2013

RBI had embarked on a messy interest rate defence of the rupee where the 91-day rate moved up by as much as 400 bps. After Raghuram Rajan took charge as Governor, some small steps were taken in normalisation.

Today, the next step in normalisation took place. RBI cut the marg...

Sweeten the Pot

MEXICO - Report 07 Oct 2013

Executive Summary

Last week GEA-ISA published the results of its most recent quarterly survey of voter opinion, which on this occasion focused on issues related to proposed fiscal and energy reforms. The public finds little it agrees with in the structural reform proposals offered t...

Political Insights: Week of October 7

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 07 Oct 2013

In the economy, two highlights: the Central Bank announces its decision on the interest rate, and the IBGE releases inflation figures for September. In the Senate, we highlight the resumed discussions on the unification of ICMS and state debt, as well as the possible vote, in the Constitution ...

Improved Trade Balance in September: Effect of the Real Exchange Rate Still Small

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Oct 2013

Brazil’s trade balance in September was in surplus by US$ 2.1 billion, indicating recovery. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the annualized surplus of US$ 16.4 billion is the largest since the end of last year (Graph 1). However, this result cannot be attributed to the weaker real exchange rate...

Weekly Tracker: October 6-12

TURKEY - Report 06 Oct 2013

Executive Summary

On the international front, there is only a remote hope of progress in the Iran vs. P5+1 negotiations, or in Syria, while Iraq is in tenterhooks. As regional conflicts spread out, contagion to Turkey through terror and ethnic strife may become more apparent.

Stability Reaffirmed

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 04 Oct 2013

Sergei Sobyanin won the Moscow Mayor’s election but with a small voter turnout, and voter support for himself only marginally higher than 50%. That may cause his position in the elite hierarchy to become less prominent. His main opponent, Alexey Navalny, won more than a quarter of the vote, despi...

Tymoshenko Agreed to go to Germany for Treatment

UKRAINE - In Brief 04 Oct 2013

Finally we have a piece of positive news about Ukraine, the jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko agreed to go to Germany for treatment thus opening the way for signing EU Association agreement in November.

Recall, over the last few months the main uncertainty about potential EU As...

Yasuni is Worth $18b in Present Value but What is the Net Present Value?

ECUADOR - In Brief 04 Oct 2013

As all expected, the National Assembly declared of "national interest" the exploitation of the Yasuni oil reserves. With 108 votes against 25, legislators included blocks 43 and 31 in the document. However, the approval excludes activities in the "intangible zone" --the area where the...

Stability Reaffirmed

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 04 Oct 2013

Sergei Sobyanin won the Moscow Mayor’s election but ensured a small voter turnout and voter support for himself only marginally higher than 50%. That may make his position in the elite hierarchy become less prominent. His main opponent Alexey Navalny won over a quarter of all votes despite having...

Surprise Positive Outlook on an Expected Investment Grade Rating

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 03 Oct 2013

Moody’s raised today the Philippine government credit from Ba1 to an investment grade of Baa3, an action that would have been dismissed as long-delayed were it not for the positive outlook that came with it. The positive outlook “reflects the expectation of continued economic outperformance...