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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Mar 28
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Brazil Economics databank Apr 17
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Central America databank Apr 2
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Chile databank Apr 4
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 3
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 15
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Ecuador databank Mar 26
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Gulf Countries databank Apr 12
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Hungary databank Mar 20
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India databank Mar 28
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Mexico databank Mar 28
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Panama databank Feb 2
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Peru databank Mar 27
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 8
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Turkey databank Mar 6
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Ukraine databank Feb 12
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Uruguay databank Mar 27
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Venezuela databank Apr 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY: FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
IMF mission leaves Kyiv – official statement looks disturbing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 May 2017
The IMF released official statement on conclusion of its mission to Ukraine. It looks the IMF officers are unhappy with the progress they observed. The statement says “further technical work is needed” in the area of pension reform, land reform, privatization and anticorruption “to transform thes...
Inflation Rate Reverts Back into the SARB’s Target Range, and Interest Rates Remain Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 May 2017
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee remains dovish as it announced today that it decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 7%, resulting in the prime interest rate also remaining at 10.5%. This decision by the Bank was mostly expected, especially following the latest i...
The Central bank cuts policy rate by 0.5 ppt down to 12.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 May 2017
The Central bank cut policy rate by extra 0.5ppt down to 12.5% today. Slowing inflation as well as steady strengthening of hryvnia stands behind this decision. In particular, in April CPI slowed down to 0.9% m/m (+12.2% y/y) vs. 1.8% m/m (+15.1% y/y) in the prior month. Hryvnia strengthened by 0....
Industrial production picks up?
INDIA · Report · 25 May 2017
A new Index of Industrial Production for India has been released by the Statistical Office. There is a visible divergence in growth rates in the new and old series. Has industrial production picked up, or is the apparent increase a consequence of the change in the index and its composition? Th...
The new Dicom
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 May 2017 · 2 responses
The new Dicom forex supply system comes to life amid heavy rationing in BCV’s dollar sales to the public . Official announcements seek to convey the idea of an increase in forex. They also announce automation, supervision and control by a BCV Auction Committee, and transparency, by publishing the...
Politics: Photo Finish Possible in State Contests
MEXICO · Report · 24 May 2017
The elections that will take place in four states June 4 will likely increase our understanding of the relative strength of each of the political parties heading into the presidential contest of 2018, as well as the momentum potential nominees will enjoy heading into their party’s respective cand...
Improving Q1 activity data combines with falling trade balance
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 May 2017
INDEC’s monthly activity indicator (EMAE) reported yesterday a 0.8%y/y growth rate, for the month of March. With this result, the 1stQ17 GDP proxy closed with a rise of 0.2%y/y, the first growth rate since the 1stQ16´s 0.6%. It also compares positively to the a contractions of -2.1% in the 4thQ16...
Economics: Labor Market Weak Spots
MEXICO · Report · 24 May 2017
The labor sector of the Mexican economy has in recent years experienced an acceleration of growth in formal sector employment, as well as a steady decline in rates of joblessness, underemployment and informality. These developments are clearly positive in their own right, but they have by no mea...
Xi Advances Globalization Plan
CHINA · Report · 24 May 2017
Growth was stable April. Real estate investment accelerated, but fixed asset investment growth remained weak, and auto production and sales fell. Money supply grew more slowly, adding constraints on future economic growth. The active real estate market is one key positive factor for economic grow...
Martial rule
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 May 2017
Manila woke up this morning to news that President Rodrigo Duterte has declared martial law in Mindanao, the country’s second largest island group. The declaration followed fighting between government forces and a local terrorist group “Maute” in Marawi City, a small provincial capital in Mindana...
Political Quarrels, A Hurdle for Economic Recovery
PERU · Report · 24 May 2017
The government has continued to enjoy heightened popularity over its handling of the El Niño emergency, though the president’s approval rating in the north, where most disasters occurred, has fallen. We think it could fall further if reconstruction action and aid doesn’t start fast. Congress i...
Minister of agriculture Taras Kutovyi resigns – good sign for land reform
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 May 2017
Minister of agriculture Taras Kutovyi wrote on his Facebook page that he decided to resign. The decision is related to his position on land reform. Taras Kutovyi, a person from local agro-business, was clearly against free land circulation. He openly was standing for so called ‘lease rights’ circ...
Erdogan speech underwhelms, hopes rest on road map
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 May 2017
As I expected, Erdogan’s long-winded acceptance speech after his election to AKP chairmanship was frustratingly vague on promises of reform and restoration of democracy. Erdogan will now focus on overhauling his party, the local administrations and the bureaucracy to create a seamless machine to ...
Week of May 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2017
The political crisis continues. Brazil’s Bar Association presented a new impeachment request against President Michel Temer, for a total of eight. The opposition is pressuring Rep. Rodrigo Maia to make a decision regarding these requests. On Wednesday, the STF will decide whether to suspend the i...
Short Term Consequences of the Political Crisis
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 May 2017
Last week started with an increase of optimism. The probability of approval of the social security reform looked better and asset prices began a new round of appreciation. These factors, together with the weak economic activity and falling inflation, led to stronger bets on a steeper decline of t...