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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Don’t Worry, Be Happy–For Now
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jun 2017

Turkey is enjoying an exceptional period of political calm, albeit one enforced by an iron fist. The impending cabinet change is unlikely to signal better policies or early elections. On the other hand, during the transition from the parliamentary to the presidential regime, policy visibility is ...

Goldman Sachs’s controversial operation
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Jun 2017 · 1 response

The history of the Pdvsa 2022(N) bond sold a few days ago by BCV to Goldman Sachs ($2.8 billion), Nomura Securities ($100 million) and a third yet unidentified institution ($100 million) began in October 2014.

Policy maker appointment to Presidential Administration highlights new media priority ahead of election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2017

Maksut Shadaev, a Moscow minister for IT and social media, is joining the senior ranks of the Presidential Administration – a move that underscores the government’s increased attention to new media policy.

Dicom: An underwhelming debut
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Jun 2017

BCV published the results of the first auction of the new Dicom system on May 31, 24 hours later than promised. The list of beneficiaries has been published as we write. Experience to date tells us that BCV is afraid of letting the Dicom rate get close to parallel market level. The forex flow ...

Sistema prepares to contest Rosneft in landmark court case
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2017

The president of London-listed AFK Sistema, Mikhail Shamolin, has said the holding’s legal position is unshakeable and that it will fight head-on claims by Russian state oil major Rosneft for USD 3bn, as part of a suit filed in a Bashkir court in mid-May.

Odebrecht Accusations Stir Political Earthquake
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 02 Jun 2017

Amid weeks of public speculation, the Attorney General has finally accused 14 people in the DR of participating in Odebrecht’s bribery scheme here. Most of the accused have high political profiles; many are close to ex-president Leonel Fernandez, among them former ministers; the president of the ...

President Zuma vs An Agitating South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Jun 2017

May 2017 was not a good month for President Zuma and June started on an even shakier ground. All around him the ground is shifting, yet he remains defiant and somehow confident that this time too he will also be able to beat all odds. Political pundits are beginning to doubt. Some unusual develop...

Mexico's Political Perspectives
MEXICO · Presentation · 01 Jun 2017

The gasoline price hike and issues of corruption have tanked presidential approval. Structural reforms are being questioned, and institutions have low credibility, posing risks for Mexico’s governance. Electoral alliances and a coalition government are the true option for the next government.

Mexico's Economic Risk Map 2017
MEXICO · Presentation · 01 Jun 2017

Many risks materialized against Mexico at the start of 2017, including low economic activity, rising inflation, US protectionism, fiscal weakness and political uncertainty. Most of them are vanishing, although NAFTA negotiations and the political environment are still uncertain.

Lawyers, Liars and Murderers
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Jun 2017

New numbers related to the demand side of growth surprised almost everyone, due to the unexpected depth of the slowdown. Remember that aggregate demand grew only 1.1% during Q1, below already-low expectations of around 1.5%-1.7%. Too, poor investment performance is greatly influenced by investmen...

Economic Data and Outlook Tend to Brighten; Political Parties Must See a Potential Coalition Path to Victory
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2017

Last month produced evidence of a further extension of the trend toward increased payroll employment that has been apparent in recent years: hiring accelerated anew in the past four months at the same time as we have seen a drop in the rates of joblessness, underemployment and informality. But t...

Tax reform bill goes to the Senate
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jun 2017

246 out of 256 congressmen who voted approved the Duterte administration’s proposed Package 1 of tax reform measures yesterday, two days after the President certified the measure as urgent.House Bill No. 5636 or the “Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion Act” will now be transmitted to the Se...

Head of Naftogaz Kobolev Reports Ukraine’s Big Win against Gazprom
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 May 2017

Head of Naftogaz Andriy Kobolev reported positive decision of the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce on lawsuit of Russian Gazprom against Naftogaz. In particular, the arbiters rejected take-or-pay rule that Gazprom was insisting on. Also the court cancelled ban on re-expo...

Growth is Robust, But a Pension System Deficit Looms
PANAMA · Report · 31 May 2017

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity grew 7.5% y/y in March, and 6% in Q1. March IMAE growth was its highest since December 2014. There were three main drivers of Q1 growth: transportation, due to an increase in Canal and ports activity; commerce, due to the recovery of Colon Free Zone reexport...

Politics Overshadows Ho-Hum Economic Performance
CHILE · Report · 31 May 2017

The Central Bank has for the second month in a row cut its monetary policy rate by 25 bps, to 2.5%. Surprisingly, the board’s communiqué was 100% neutral. Clearly the current cycle of MPR reductions has ended, and a long pause lies ahead. GDP in Q1 recorded its lowest y/y growth rate since ...

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