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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Narrow Bridge to 2018
BRAZIL POLITICS · Presentation · 04 May 2017

Brazil’s politics are showing substantial upside, including the strongest coalition government since FHC 1, a strong economic team and progress on the reform agenda. However, challenges remain: the Car Wash investigation continues to impact politics and business, and economic recovery has been sl...

Credit Expansion, Interest Rates and the RMB: China’s Policy Choices
CHINA FINANCIAL · Presentation · 04 May 2017

Although first quarter data was seen by many as confirming the new optimism, it does no such thing. The increase in Total Social Funding (a wide and more accurate measure of credit used by the PBOC) was higher than expected. The way in which China’s debt burden is resolved is key to its adjustmen...

An Economy threatened by Protectionism and Uncertainty
MEXICO · Presentation · 04 May 2017

Mexico’s economic perspectives have improved compared to the start of the year, but uncertainty remains high. US protectionism is a real threat, although markets can compensate for the negative effects. Private consumption seems to be holding in early 2017, but some decelerating factors will inte...

Policy Uncertainty Derailing SA Economic Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 04 May 2017

The SA economy is afflicted by structural blockages as well as high political and policy uncertainty. A climate of low confidence for business and consumers is undermining future growth prospects. Currency volatility presents a major upside risk to the inflation outlook; the Reserve Bank is now l...

Promising Prospects Going Forward
INDONESIA · Presentation · 04 May 2017

The global environment remains challenging but Indonesia is slowly rebounding. Investment growth and leading indicators are positive; fiscal policy is pro-growth, supported by a healthy fiscal balance; and structural reforms are progressing. The country’s long-term prospects are bright but challe...

Prosperity and Sustainability: Problems, Fact and Illusions
HUNGARY · Presentation · 04 May 2017

While the commitment to improve macro equilibrium and financial stability is strong, the country faces issues that are hampering stronger growth. These include low fixed investment, investor-unfriendly policies, a shrinking labor pool and unsustainably high wages, an exchange rate dilemma and the...

Substitute tax proposal expected to yield less
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 May 2017

The Department of Finance (DoF) today released a statement to the media reporting that the House ways and means committee passed yesterday a substitute tax reform measure that “only had moderate changes” from the DoF proposal. The longish statement, posted on its website, details the specific fea...

Consumption Remains the Star of GDP Growth, While the 2017 Electoral Panorama Tightens
MEXICO · Report · 03 May 2017

The economic data released over the course of April offers encouraging signs of continuing growth in certain areas of the economy, but also potential harbingers of a slowdown that might emerge in future months. The Global Index of Economic Activity (IGAE) for February showed the economy grew ...

April Inflation Broadly As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2017 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by 1.3% in April, broadly as expected, taking the 12-month rate up to just under 12% (11.9%), from 11.3% in March. Likewise, 12-month producer prices rose further to 16.4% in April, from 16.1% a month earlier, suggesting cost push pressures continue (Table 1; Graph 1). The s...

Economic Activity: Has Any Monetary Policy Signal Changed?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 May 2017

What really matters for the Central Bank to maintain the strong monetary easing cycle? One condition is approval of a pension reform that consolidates the picture of lower risks, preventing the exchange rate from depreciating. However, both the size of the cycle and the magnitude of the next cuts...

Datafolha reveals popular disapproval of reforms
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2017 · 1 response

A poll released on Monday, May 1, by Datafolha shows sharp disapproval of the Michel Temer administration’s agenda of reforms. The poor opinion of the planned overhaul of the pension and labor areas can be explained by many factors.

Week of May 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2017

A shorter week in Brasília, due to the May 1 holiday. The Lower House Special Committee on Pension Reform closes discussions of Arthur Maia’s report on Tuesday, May 2, and the vote could start on May 3. Labor Reform begins to progress in the Senate. This week’s Talking Points: • Main topics f...

Cracks in the Regime
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Apr 2017

Weeks of protests, social unrest, and deaths have devastated what was left of the regime’s international reputation and spread mass discontent even to chavista strongholds. Paramilitary and other armed groups associated with the regime are fighting each other and defying state authority. The mili...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 30 Apr 2017

The politics section is dedicated to a long-term assessment of Turkey’s policy path on the political front, which is necessitated by the switch to the Executive Presidency. While President Erdogan will finalize his policy mix in June, initial omens are inauspicious. There is no signal of moderati...

New Urbanization Strategy to Contain Housing Bubble
CHINA · Report · 30 Apr 2017

GDP was up 6.9% y/y in Q1, its fastest growth since last year, and up 0.1 pps from Q4 2016. But, given the end of producer price appreciation, and real estate market re-tightening, we expect this recovery to be temporary. Industrial output rose 6.8% y/y, up 0.7 pps from Q4. March saw a particu...

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