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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An upgrade from S&P, possibly leading to a stronger HUF in short term
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2019

On Friday, February 15, S&P upgraded the Hungarian State to BBB/Stable from the BBB-/Positive level, at which it had been staying since August 2017. This was not entirely unexpected. The agency was impressed especially by regular high growth and the systematic reductions of the government debt ra...

Relentless hyperinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Feb 2019

Our monthly inflation estimate for January 2019 rises to 225 percent, exceeding our 200 percent forecast. This mainly reflects the impact of the bolivar’s persistent depreciation in the Dicom segment since November 2018 and the sharp rise in the price of the dollar in the parallel market since Ja...

Major American investor arrested in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2019

Michael Calvey (founder of Baring Vostok) has been arrested in Moscow on suspicion of fraud. Baring Vostok is a private equity group that holds USD 3.7 billion in assets. Calvey is suspected of defrauding Vostochny Bank of USD 37.5 million - Baring Vostok has a controlling share in the bank. The ...

No quantitative easing for China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Feb 2019

There is a widespread expectation among western investors that China will enact quantitative easing to counter the effects of the trade war and the slowing economy. This is highly unlikely. Although there is substantial data indicating significant pain in the economy, including defaulting SMEs, u...

The Board of Directors of the Panama Canal Authority elected Ricaurte Vásquez as the new Administrator (CEO) of the agency and Ilya Espino de Marotta as his Deputy
PANAMA · In Brief · 15 Feb 2019

The Board of Directors of the Panama Canal Authority elected Ricaurte Vásquez as the new Administrator (CEO) of the agency and Ilya Espino de Marotta as his Deputy.Ricaurte Vásquez is the new CEO of the ACP, appointed unanimously by the eleven-member Board of Directors, for a period of seven year...

Q4 GDP growth, the new growth target and monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Feb 2019

1. GDP growth was reported at 4.8% yoy on sda basis for Q4 2018, down from a revised 5.1% yoy in Q3. The full-year growth rate was recorded at a preliminary 4.9% in sda terms (4.8% according to unadjusted data). In fact, GDP grew by close to 5% yoy throughout the whole of 2018.2. On February 10, ...

Bank of Russia remains 7.75%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2019

As expected the Bank of Russia retained the benchmark rate at 7.75%. Inflation was the stated reason for this. In January inflation was at 5.5% YoY. This is at the lower end of what CBR forecast. Inflation in 2019 is predicted to be from 5.5% to 6%. Likely it will be highest in the middle of the ...

US Senate to discuss more anti-Russian sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2019

On Wednesday the US Senate met to discuss a new round of sanctions under DASKAA (Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act). DASKAA was passed least year but a new enhanced version might be introduced. The sovereign debt aspect of it is probably going to be the most impactful part o...

The days of swine and roses
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Feb 2019

Things are far from coming up roses for the Philippines in 2019, the Year of the Pig.A more somber mood greeted the start of the year as talks of slower global growth, persistence of trade war, no-deal Brexit, and US government shutdown made headlines.Locally, notwithstanding tamer inflation and ...

Stolen Moldovan assets seized
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2019

UK authorities have seized assets belonging to Luca Filat. The 22 year old is the son of Vladimir Filat the former Prime Minister of Moldova. Vladimir Filat is serving 9 years in prison in Moldova for his role in 'disappearing' over USD 1 billion from three Moldovan banks in June 2016. This was w...

South Africa in darkness as Eskom’s troubles intensify
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Feb 2019 · 1 response

Load shedding is back once again, and this time, the electricity cuts by Eskom that have long plagued South Africa have intensified. Load shedding is implemented by Eskom as a last resort measure when demand for electricity outstrips power generation by the entity. This is done in order to avert ...

Severe damage
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2019 · 2 responses

The 28 January 2019 sanctions put the Maduro government in dire straits. According to our calculations, forex earnings will fall by at least $700 million this month and are unlikely to recover. Pdvsa proved being unable to avoid the resounding fall in oil output so far. It was taken by surpri...

Polls bring wake-up call, but constitution includes NATO/EU aspirations
UKRAINE · Report · 13 Feb 2019

Recent polls that showed comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy leading in the presidential race shocked everyone. Ukrainian voters seem to be sending a message to the powers that be: maybe we’d be better off with a comic than with “business as usual.” How serious respondents are in plumping for a man who ...

We were wrong on January inflation, a problem for the economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2019

Well, the problem is certainly not so much that we undershot the January inflation actual (though the analyst consensus got it right). They will most likely survive it somehow. The real problem is that the current growth rate of GDP, around 4% annually, less and less appears to be compatible with...

The new law on elections is disappointing
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Feb 2019

Last night, the Chamber of Representatives approved the bill on the electoral regime. The bill was passed by the Senate last week. The aim of the law is to create a new and modern electoral regime to complement the party law passed last year, which with shortcomings, was a step forward because it...

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