MEXICO - Report 10 Sep 2013

Executive Summary

Some moves in recent weeks by the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto in relation to its structural reform agenda may have been seen at the time as surrendering in the face of pressure from protesting social groups. The decision in late August to postpon...

VENEZUELA - In Brief 09 Sep 2013 2 responses

According to Reuters, Malaysian state oil company Petronas announced it quit its participation in Petrocarabobo, a 400,000 b/d Orinoco Oil Belt project in which Petronas held 11%. The other partners are PDVSA (60%), Repsol (11%), ONGC Videsh (11%), Oil India (3.5%) and Indian Oil Corp (3.5%).&nbs...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 09 Sep 2013

There are a number of positive signals that can be gleaned from the July fiscal performance report, including: 1. Commendable increases in tax revenues, with BIR and BoC collections rising 20% and 13.5%, both above their first half growth rates of 14% and 1.2% respectively.  Coming from its ...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 09 Sep 2013

All eyes are on the Supreme Court (STF), which may conclude the Mensalão (monthly payoff scandal) trial this week.On Monday, President Dilma Rousseff meets with allied leaders to discuss the presidential vetoes to be analyzed on September 17. The cycle of roadway concessions starts this...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Sep 2013

The big surprise in the minutes of the last COPOM meeting was the claim that there are “conditions, over the horizon relevant to monetary policy, for the public sector balance sheet to shift to the neutral zone.” This is especially strange after the recent statements by COPOM members of concer...

VENEZUELA - In Brief 09 Sep 2013 2 responses

The available draft of the new Forex Law (Ley Contra los Ilícitos Cambiarios, LCIC) is a move towards a more flexible and open foreign exchange regime.

The project brings few substantive changes to the definition of offenses and significantly increases penalties. The fundamental change, in...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Sep 2013

Executive Summary

Inflation in July was near zero, but this does not represent a trend reversal. The 12-month forward-looking expectations continue to rise, at more than 6% a year; the 12-month inflation of non-tradables is still growing above the upper limit of the target interval; ...

UKRAINE - In Brief 09 Sep 2013

Gross foreign reserves declined $1.1 billion (4.7% m/m) in August down to $21.65 billion or 2.4 months of future imports, according to the Central bank report on September 6th.

It is the lowest level of gross foreign reserves over the last seven years.  Still in 2006 when Ukraine had ...

MEXICO - In Brief 09 Sep 2013

The government announced today a very significant fiscal package for 2014, as well as an ambitious fiscal reform. In essence, both proposals are oriented to increase public sector revenues in order to augment spending in four distinct areas, two traditional and two new ones. The former include mo...

TURKEY - Report 08 Sep 2013

Executive Summary

Obama is not guaranteed to receive the go-ahead for Syria from the House.An airstrike on Assad’s assets will degrade his capacity to execute the war and give the rebels the upper hand. Yet, the threat of Shia Axis taking revenge on Turkey can’t be dismissed.