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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Reserve Bank hikes the rate to contain inflationary expectations.
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Nov 2018

In its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for 2018, the South African Reserve Bank decided to increase the repurchase (repo) rate by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.75%, effective from 23 November 2018. This moves the bank lending (prime) rate to 10.25% from 10%. The SARB last made a cha...

Rising fiscal stimulus and support for the private sector
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Nov 2018

To understand how the Chinese banking system is coping with the economic downturn, we spoke to 15 banks in 10 cities. Despite concerns about expansion of debt, our November 2018 survey of fifteen banks shows that banks are lending for infrastructure projects in a clear bid to stimulate the econo...

Good, not great
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 23 Nov 2018

Local moods have soured over the past several months on strong external headwinds, i.e., the triple whammy of US monetary tightening, surging oil prices and an escalating US-China trade war, and a collection of weaker economic data, including lower GDP growth and higher inflation. Economic perfo...

Budget 2019 approved: Expect the IMF wire
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Nov 2018

In 6:01 AM Kyiv time the parliament approved spending plan 2019. The authorities were in rush (probably under pressure of some deadline) and spent the whole night juggling with spending numbers. Eventually they have approved budget with the key figures – deficit, general revenues and spending – p...

Tajik dam starts to generate electricity.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2018 · 1 response

The Rogun Dam in Tajikistan has started to generate electricity. The first segment of the dam has been completed. The rest will take a projected 10 years. This is a major step for the poorest country in the former USSR.Tajikistan's neighbor Uzbekistan had lobbied hard against the dam since it wil...

Macroeconomic review and perspectives 1994-2018
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 21 Nov 2018

The South African economy benefited from past policies designed to foster economic stability, but more recently it is suffering from structural blockages hindering competitiveness, corruption stemming from the Zuma Administration, and other political economy challenges. • The South African eco...

Credit stress in the non-financial firms
INDIA · Report · 20 Nov 2018 · 1 response

We utilize firm data to identify the set of large stressed non-financial firms. We measure the size of balance sheet, borrowing and bank borrowing in these firms relative to the overall non-financial corporate sector. About 60% of the debt outstanding – by banks or by others – is in stressed firm...

Economics: Positive results for EPN’s public finance handling
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2018

As we near the end of the six-year administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto, we can draw a generally favorable balance sheet of its handling of government finances. His government grew tax revenues consistently between the time it took office at the end of 2012 until 2016, including 27.4% g...

Politics: The transition and the next power elite
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2018

The prolonged transition period is about to conclude, and with it an unprecedented period characterized by both President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his allies in Congress taking precipitous and premature decisions and actions, initial signs of strains and conflicts within the incoming...

Economic activity: Anything new?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Nov 2018 · 1 response

The numbers for September indicate that the cyclical recovery continued in the third quarter, but without any signs of sustained acceleration. There are factors in place favorable to recovery: given the large negative GDP gap (high unemployment and low installed capacity utilization), inflation r...

Negotiations for the presidency of the Lower House and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2018

The election for the presidency of the Lower House is one of the main items on the agenda this week; Rodrigo Maia (DEM) meets with recently elected congressional representatives in Brasília. Labor unions will demonstrate against Pension Reform. In the Lower House and Senate, important votes are o...

Russian oligarchs not welcome at Davos
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2018

Last week it emerged that Andrei Kostin, Viktor Vekselberg and Oleg Deripaska have been uninvited to Davos for this coming January. PM Medvedev reacted with ire to the news. He threatened that no Russian will take part in the World Economic Forum unless these men are included. A final decision ha...

A rate hike in November remains a real possibility
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Nov 2018

Headline inflation in October reached 1.2% y/y, core 1.0% y/y, and appears well entrenched within the target range. GDP growth appears soft in Q318 (2.3% saar), but excluding taxes on imports, GDP growth hit 3%. We see a near 50% chance of a rate hike in November, despite the fact that there will...

Excellent fiscal data for Q3
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Nov 2018

The general government sector's net borrowing requirement was the equivalent of -0.5% of GDP in Q3, i.e. the government had a small net financing surplus in that quarter. That was a major positive change from Q3 2017, when the net borrowing requirement was a considerable 3.2% of GDP. As a result,...

Enjoy it while it lasts
TURKEY · Report · 18 Nov 2018 · 1 response

Relations with the US could improve further, if the Trump administration decides to probe Pastor Gulen’s involvement in the 2016 aborted coup. In any case, we detect few landmines in the diplomatic landscape for Erdogan, who has a very strong incentive to preserve the status quo with the US, Germ...

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