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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Monetary Policy: No surprises for now
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Oct 2018

At the next COPOM meeting the Central Bank should keep the SELIC rate at 6.5%, with the communiqué and minutes repeating two warnings that have been expressed repeatedly. The first refers to the changes that have been occurring in the international scenario, which is not as favorable as it was un...

The success of international events in the midst of disaster recovery
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Oct 2018

In the month of September 2018, disasters hit the area of Central Sulawesi, especially in Palu, Donggala and Sigi. A huge earthquake created deadly tsunamis and flooding, which especially hit Palu just shortly after the earthquake. That earthquake followed another large earthquake that hit Lombok...

Russia supports Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi issue
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2018

The Russian Government has backed Saudi Arabia's version of events with relation to the death of Jamal Khashoggi. Dmitry Peskov said that no one has any reason to doubt the explanation of the Saudi Arabian Government. No other country outside the Middle East has offered such support. Peskov is Pr...

Brazil presidential election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Oct 2018 · 3 responses

Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) was elected President of the Republic with 55.13% of the valid votes and impeded the fifth consecutive victory of the PT. Bolsonaro had 10.26% percentage points more than in the first round. Fernando Haddad (PT) had 44.87% of valid votes. It is the worst performance of the Wo...

FDI keeps flowing in
CHINA · Report · 29 Oct 2018

Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Although the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pps from Q2. Trade a...

The tightening labor market and weaker shekel (if it continues) are rate hike supportive
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Oct 2018

The labor market continues to tighten, with job vacancies up, supportive of wage/inflationary pressure. Israeli savings institutions were net purchasers of 0.5bn USD in August, slowing from 1.1bn in July. Our inflation forecast stands at 1.1% in 2019, with the main risk coming from a weaker shek...

President Ramaphosa celebrates Investment Summit positive outcomes
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Oct 2018

Investment and economic growth are interconnected, with higher investment proven to lead to higher growth. The inverse is also true, countries that have low investment levels are slow to grow, and even stagnate, leading to poor quality of life in general. The South African economy is no different...

This time is different
TURKEY · Forecast · 28 Oct 2018 · 1 response

After an exceptionally volatile August, markets have stabilized and turned even constructive in recent weeks, relatively speaking, on the back of myriad of interventions by the government, but most importantly thanks to the release of Pastor Brunson from prison. Yet, the damage is done. We fear t...

Elements of fiscal adjustment are appearing here and there
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Oct 2018

Following the cutback of maximum advance payments on EU-backed development projects in September, new elements of fiscal restraint appeared, thus far sporadically, in recent weeks. These included:- the discontinuation of a 30% government subsidy on payments into building society schemes, effectiv...

Despite a six-point drop, Bolsonaro remains the favorite
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2018

The new Datafolha poll on the presidential race shows that Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) has dropped from 18 to 12 percentage points. The six-point reduction in Bolsonaro’s lead is still not a threat to his probability of winning, for the following reasons: 1) Because ...

Monetary noise from Beijing: Little support for equities - yet
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Oct 2018

Chinese equities ended the week higher after senior Chinese officials expressed support for the markets. The comments by officials in the central bank and the central economic leadership were interpreted as indications of a support for stocks. However, the comments focused more on the fundamental...

Macroeconomic Outlook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 26 Oct 2018

Challenges for the new administration include the fate of the tax reform, the aftermath of the peace plan, and a strategy for Venezuelan refugees into the country. Specifics topics in this Colombia presentation are: • Possible content of financing law, according to the director of DIAN and our ...

Eurobonds Ahead of the IMF
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2018

We have raised $2 billion through Eurobonds. Ahead of the IMF wire. The funds appeared to be quite expensive and we hear many local observers already crying foul about this placement. Nevertheless, it’s a very good deal for Ukraine improving our chances to survive smoothly the doubled elections y...

South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 2018: Fiscal déjà vu
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Oct 2018

Just two weeks after assuming the position of South Africa’s Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni had the unenviable task of tabling his maiden Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on October 24, 2018. The MTBPS is tabled annually in parliament in October and sets out the economic context and as...

Policy rate unchanged, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Oct 2018

At today’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the policy (one-week repo) rate was left unchanged at 24% (simple), as expected (see chart). There were a few outliers in the polls, expecting (or hoping?) that the Bank would hike rates with a view to rebuilding its credibility and/or because real po...

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