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Pension Reform depends on Temer, Maia & Centrão
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2017

Having defeated the second PGR accusation, President Michel Temer will have to negotiate with his coalition to approve fiscal austerity measures. By securing enough support to reject two accusations in the Lower House, Temer has evinced his ability to negotiate. However, it is clear that dialogue...

MPC Tweaks Words, Hopes It’ll Suffice
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2017

The CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept all short-term rates unchanged today (one-week repo rate at 8.0%, O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respectively; and LLW rate at 12.25%; Graph 1). Although this is exactly what was being anticipated, the news flow in the past 24 h...

SA’s 2017 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Oct 2017 · 1 response

This year's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was delivered by Minister Gigaba yesterday. This was of particular interest for a variety reasons. Most importantly, this was Gigaba's maiden budget policy statement, an opportunity to assess his political economy stance. Minister Gigaba was...

Germany reported to attempt financial sanctions on Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2017

Dark clouds are gathering on Turkey’s financial system very quickly. I’ve reported last week that U.S. Treasury Department might be conducting a probe on several Turkish banks on suspicion of violating financial sanctions on Iran. On Wednesday, Bloomberg.com reported that Berlin is using its infl...

South Africa's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 25 Oct 2017

This year's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was delivered by Minister Gigaba earlier today. This was of particular interest for a variety reasons. Most importantly, this was Gigaba's maiden budget policy statement, an opportunity to assess his political economy stance. Minister Gigaba...

(Far Too Much) Optimism
CHILE · Report · 25 Oct 2017

September monthly inflation was the lowest for any September since 1928, and pushed annual inflation down to 1.5%. But this unusual figure can mostly be attributed to three specific effects, so there’s no true fall in inflationary pressures. The 12-month variation of core measures remained stable...

SA’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) Later Today
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Oct 2017

The Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) is being delivered later today by the Finance Minister, Malusi Gigaba. A number of developments that affect (or could affect) the fiscus have taken place since the main budget was delivered during February 2017. Some of the more prominent events tha...

Temer Administration: A Step-by-Step Guide to the Temer Accusation Vote
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2017

​In the vote on the first accusation against President Michel Temer was concluded at 9:50pm. This time, aside from the President, two cabinet ministers also stand accused: Eliseu Padilha (Chief of Staff) and Moreira Franco (General Secretariat of the Presidency). Their lawyers will speak for 25 m...

Update on debt and liquidity
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Oct 2017 · 2 responses

In the last 10 days, $3,200 million of new financing has reliefed the liquidity crisis of the public system. From these, $2,500 million of 10-year new bonds at 8.875% and an operation for $500 with Goldman Sachs with 35 months of maturity and at Libor + 4.75% will help the Ministry of Finance to ...

Real GDP growth rate for Jan-Aug 2017: 4%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 24 Oct 2017

Yesterday, the Central Bank released figures of GDP growth which confirm that the economy continues growing below its long term rate. The Economic Activity Monthly Index (IMAE for its Spanish acronym) for the period January-August was set at 4%. Although authorities are forecasting a real GDP gro...

​Some Turkish banks are under U.S. Treasury investigation
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2017

Turkish markets made a poor start to the week, partly driven by Dollar Index strength, but definitely demoralized by the ongoing controversy over potential fines by the U. S. Department of Treasury to be levied on six Turkish banks. In particular the severe plunge in the banking index of the Ista...

Week of October 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2017

A decisive week for President Michel Temer – the Lower House votes on the second accusation presented by the PGR against him and two cabinet ministers. To vote in favor of the president, allies are presenting demands that range from the removal of the Congonhas (SP) airport from the concessions p...

What Do Economists and the Yield Curve Have to Say About the SELIC Rate?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Oct 2017

A broad consensus exists among economists about the future of monetary policy: the SELIC rate will fall to 7% in December (with an outside chance of one or two more cuts of 25 points) and stay at that level throughout 2018. But the picture painted by the yield curve is very different, “pricing in...

Economics: No Cataclysm if NAFTA dissolves
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2017 · 1 response

The fourth round of Nafta renegotiation talks proved to be the most acrimonious to date as the United States pressed ahead with proposals that Canada and Mexico have described as red lines that they will never agree to cross, and U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his disdain for, and willing...

Politics: Frente Ciudadano por México and Zavala’s Spoiler Potential
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2017

Margarita Zavala’s decision earlier this month to resign from the PAN and run for president as an independent marked a significant setback for the Citizens Front for Mexico (CFM), which has fallen into third place according to most surveys that have been made public. But we will have to wait...

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