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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

ECUADOR WILL PAY THE 2015
ECUADOR · In Brief · 11 Dec 2015

President Correa announced that the Republic has allocated the money to make payment of the $650 million par value of Global Bonds 2015 by next December the 15th and of the first payment to OXY of a total of $1061.7 million ruled by the World Bank's international settlements court. The total amou...

The opposition’s overwhelming victory
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2015

The electoral system designed to favor the majority worked effectively in favor of the opposition. The opposition coalition (MUD) garnered won 67 percent of the seats (112 deputies) with 57 percent of the vote and the Great Patriotic Pole (GPP) ended up with 33 percent of the seats (55 deputies) ...

Never Tired of Fighting
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2015

Russia’s involvement in the Syrian conflict increased dramatically following a terrorist attack that killed more than two hundred Russians on an airplane. However, the increased stakes make the Russian government more dependent on the outcome of the conflict rather than increasing the probability...

South Africa has a new Minister of Finance
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 10 Dec 2015

President Zuma stunned the nation yesterday evening by removing Mr N. Nene, his Minister of Finance without any justifications whatsoever. Importantly, this was not part of a cabinet reshuffle; Mr Nene is left in the cold. His choice of the new minister, Mr David van Rooyen, is as astonishing for...

Economics: Mexico’s TPP Challenges
MEXICO · Report · 10 Dec 2015

The full text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty was made public the second week of November and is now expected to be ratified by each participating country. Our analysis suggests that membership in the TPP will lead to changes, albeit minimal ones, on the level of Mexico’s trade in the ...

Growth Surging, CAD Tanking: So Are We Transformed?
TURKEY · Report · 10 Dec 2015

Today’s GDP data (Q3) surprised on the upside, coming in at an impressive 4%, y/y, much stronger than the market forecasts of about 2.5%, and our slightly higher forecast. Growth was also strong relative to the previous quarter (seasonally- and working day-adjusted), registering a 1.3% expansion,...

Politics: First Look at the Work of the New Congress
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2015

With the expedited reforms of the Pact for Mexico a fading memory, the 63rd Congress convened for its first session on September 1. In keeping with a custom in place since 1997, whenever the administration in office (whether from the Institutional Revolutionary (PRI) or the National Action (PAN) ...

Alea iacta est
ARGENTINA · Report · 09 Dec 2015

In this report, we are going to revise some of the political and economic challenges that Macri will face, in order to better understand the announcements he is expected to make soon after swearing in. Those challenges include the lax monetary policy fueled not only by the monetization of the ...

Picciani’s exit increases distance between the PMDB and the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2015

The removal of Leonardo Picciani from the leadership of the PMDB in the House is another important chapter in the distancing of the PMDB from the government. This is the party’s second move against the Planalto Palace in the last 24 hours. The party is still divided on the issue of the impeachmen...

Government defeated in the first battle of the impeachment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2015

The government was defeated in the first battle of the impeachment. With 272 votes in favor and 199 against, the Floor of the House of Representatives approved an alternate composition of the Special Committee to review the impeachment, proposed by dissidents of the allied base and by members of ...

Inflation moved up from near-zero in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2015

The two years long era of zero (or negative) inflation may have been finally over in November, as the yoy rate of CPI-inflation jumped to 0.5% from 0.1% in October and a below-zero level previously. This was one decimal point lower than market (and our) expectation, so essentially no surprise at ...

Reversal in Current Account Deficit Contraction
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Dec 2015

Figures released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on the balance of payments today show that the current account deteriorated in the third quarter of 2015, thereby reversing an improvement that had been taking place since the third quarter of 2014. The deficit on the current account balan...

China’s rebalancing timetable
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Dec 2015

Last week’s announcement by the IMF – that the RMB would join the four currencies that comprise the SDR – set off yet a new round of speculation about the future value of the RMB. On balance and over the medium term there are stronger economic reasons to keep the RMB steady than to devalue th...

Slow Reform Sows Discontent
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Dec 2015

There’s been a disturbing level of discontent over the progress of reforms.We at first thought this was linked to demands for populist solutions. But local elections show that this is not so: Ukrainians are irritated that new elites are returning to their traditional corrupt ways of “doing busine...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Dec 2015

The recession, which deepened further in the third quarter, should continue in the last three months of the year, bringing the GDP contraction for 2015 to 4%. Given political uncertainty at the current exceptional levels, which hampers any attempt to change the country’s ruinous fiscal situation,...

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