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Big Political Action might Reveal Authorities’ Intentions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Oct 2017

Tomorrow, on October 17 there will be a big political action (demonstration) in support of reforms. At least it was advertised as a big one. In fact it will be a critical day for those who still are struggling for changes at the country. Reformation zeal has faded. Elites are returning to “busine...

Week of October 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2017

The Lower House CCJ is expected to vote on the accusation against President Temer on Thursday, October 19. Portions of Lúcio Funaro’s plea bargain deal revealed by the press could influence discussions. The Senate decides whether to reverse the STF decision that removed Aécio Neves (PSDB) from h...

Localizing elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2017

The United Russia party won Moscow’s municipal elections with 67% of the seats in all the assemblies. However, in several small assemblies, opposition candidates also won some seats and even won majorities. All interim governors appointed by the Kremlin throughout 2016-2017 won their regional...

Retail Sales
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Oct 2017

Household consumption continues to be the driving force of the current recovery, and as is logical, its tendency is closely accompanied by real retail sales. In August, however, real retail sales in the restricted sense dipped slightly. We believe this movement is temporary and does not change th...

Economics: GFI Offers Little Hope of Strong GDP
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2017 · 2 responses

Fixed investment has been trending lower this year as both the public and private sectors have scaled back construction expenditures, and spending on machinery and equipment has been lackluster. Machinery and equipment investment are still expanding, but growth rates fail to approach the kind...

Politics: Splits and Quakes Reshape 2018
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2017

Margarita Zavala’s announcement October 6 that she was resigning from the PAN to run as an independent may have shaken up the 2018 campaign. As the PAN’s best known presidential hopeful, Zavala was drawing roughly the same support in polls as her main rival within the PAN, party chairman Ricardo...

Leverage, Debt Service and Increased Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Oct 2017

On the aggregate demand side, the driving force of the economy is the expansion of household consumption, which is being strongly stimulated by monetary policy, in particular the persistently low market real interest rate. That stimulus comes not only from the preference for present over future c...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 15 Oct 2017

As the Turko-American visa ban enters its second week, hopes for a compromise are high, but concrete developments are meager. Ankara continues to implicate the American “Deep State” in the July 2016 coup attempt. Escalation of the conflict is unlikely, but the mutual ban appears here to stay. ...

On the eve of 15 October 2017
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Oct 2017

The importance of these elections comes from its potential effectiveness in heralding change in 2018. For the first time in chavismo’s history, the opposition is visibly ahead and the government has confessed it: Maduro announced that chavismo would win 10 state governorships (currently it contro...

President Zuma's Legal Setback: "The Spy Tape 783 Corruption Cases" back on the Table
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 13 Oct 2017

Today, the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) ruled against President and the National Prosecuting Agency (NPA), declaring that the NPA's decision, back in 2007, to drop the charges of corruption and fraud against the then Deputy President of the ANC, Mr Zuma, was irrational, flawed and illegal. The c...

Tensions rise between Maia and Temer
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2017

Furious with the government’s maneuver of emptying the Lower House Floor session to ensure the reading of the report by Rep. Bonifácio de Andrada (PSDB-MG) on the accusation presented by the PGR against President Temer in the Lower House Constitution and Justice Committee, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) m...

A Not-So-Firm Recovery Due to Political Economy Uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 11 Oct 2017

• South Africa’s Growth: South Africa’s end-2016 – beginning-2017 technical recession came to a welcoming end during the second quarter of 2017 as the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP recorded a growth rate of 2.5% q/q. We expect a positive quarterly GDP growth rate once again during the th...

Accusation against Temer will be rejected, say lawmakers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2017

A poll conducted by Arko Advice shows that 71.23% of congressional representatives believe that the second accusation against President Temer, for obstruction of justice and criminal organization, will be rejected. The poll was taken on October 2-5 with 212 federal representatives from 25 politic...

September inflation: everyone will likely claim to have been right
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2017

CPI-inflation data for September was published this morning. The considerable good news was a marginal drop of the yoy headline rate, to 2.5% from 2.6% in August, in the wake of just 0.1% rise of average prices in September, and a 0.1% monthly decrease of non-fuel prices, leading to an unchanged ...

​Visa ban stand-off: Further escalation unlikely
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2017

Finally, I’m able to write a few intelligent lines about the visa ban stand-off between US and Turkey. The good news is that neither side seems to have an incentive to ratchet up the conflict. The bad news is that a climb-down is not likely in the short-term, barring a break-through in an impendi...

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