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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Trying to please both God and the Devil
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Oct 2017

President Lenín Moreno’s position on the razor's edge is evidenced by his contradictory and mild decision making on important political and economic issues. The new economic program launched recently by Ministry of Finance Carlos de la Torre is no exception. Moreno’s effort to maintain his lef...

J&F’s future is in jeopardy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2017

A serious threat looms over the future of JBS, the largest meat producer in the world and a company controlled by the J&F group. The rescission of the plea bargain deal secured by Joesley Batista, a partner in the company, and Ricardo Saud, a high-ranking executive, is the main issue. Five other ...

Is the monetary bet going sour?
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Oct 2017

Much of market’s attention will be focused on this Sunday’s midterm elections and the likely political implications of the reshuffling in Congress, in particular, the new political balance ahead of the 2018 budget approval or the announced labor and tax reform. The electoral battle in the Provinc...

Chavismo’s electoral machinery in action
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Oct 2017

The unexpected outcome of the 15 October elections shows that Maduro’s government worked hard to raise chavismo’s political-electoral machinery to a new level and managed to have its base turn out almost entirely (30 percent of the voters) while at the same time hampering the opposition’s turnout...

Political protests: authorities play for time
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2017

My personal opinion – healthcare reform was a sacrifice to prevent revision of political rules of the game. When reformers had been celebrating approval of healthcare legislation, the authorities tried to derail process of implementing political demands. Firstly, the draft law, which cancels MPs ...

Healthcare reform approved
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2017

Yesterday, on October 19 parliament finally approved long-awaited healthcare reform. Frankly, I was skeptical about chances of this badly needed measure but probably protests on the streets sped up the process. Virtually, the reform has been curtailed for some critical features like official co-f...

ABS and Deleveraging in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Oct 2017

• Explosion in ABS. By the end of September, there were 1,129 ABS securities with an outstanding balance of Rmb1.5trn. Encouraged by government policies, we estimate ABS will grow by double digits through 2020. • Fiscal “Band-aid.” The central government has retreated from using fiscal resources...

Fidesz' Main Opposition Is Non-Inflationary Growth
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Oct 2017

Six months ahead of the next regular parliamentary election, the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance remains on course towards an easy victory, with better-than-equal chances for a constitutional majority in the National Assembly. Amidst conditions of rapid wage and employment growth, there is hardly ...

Comments on Xi Jinping’s Speech at the Party Congress
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Oct 2017 · 1 response

​For all the ink that will be spilled on it I think there was nothing in today’s speech by Xi Jinping that is likely to cause anyone to change his mind about China's economic prospects, nor was there ever likely to be. This was meant to be a political speech and to check all the necessary boxes. ...

President Zuma and His 12th Nuclear Cabinet Reshuffle
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 18 Oct 2017

Yesterday, in a fairly uncermonious manner, and uncharacteristically during day time, President Zuma introduced his 12th Cabinet reshuffle in 8 years. Mostly, he re-arranged his ministers' portfolios, even some who were appointed a mere 6 months back were moved around. He brought an staunch and y...

Political Protests: Interim Results
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Oct 2017

Political protests on October 17 have impressed the authorities. The downtown of the city was flooded with police and military. And it looks like police exceeded the number of protesters. The very action was predominantly peaceful except for few minor clashes. Recall the protestors demand (a) ant...

Kirkuk reverts to Baghdad, Kurds in disarray
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Oct 2017

The disputed Iraqi city of Kirkuk rapidly fell to Iraqi Army, as Kurdish peshmerga forces withdrew after putting up symbolic resistance. It appears that divisions between deceased national hero Mr. Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) tacitly cooperating with the approaching Iraqi Army, ...

Big Political Action might Reveal Authorities’ Intentions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Oct 2017

Tomorrow, on October 17 there will be a big political action (demonstration) in support of reforms. At least it was advertised as a big one. In fact it will be a critical day for those who still are struggling for changes at the country. Reformation zeal has faded. Elites are returning to “busine...

Week of October 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2017

The Lower House CCJ is expected to vote on the accusation against President Temer on Thursday, October 19. Portions of Lúcio Funaro’s plea bargain deal revealed by the press could influence discussions. The Senate decides whether to reverse the STF decision that removed Aécio Neves (PSDB) from h...

Localizing elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2017

The United Russia party won Moscow’s municipal elections with 67% of the seats in all the assemblies. However, in several small assemblies, opposition candidates also won some seats and even won majorities. All interim governors appointed by the Kremlin throughout 2016-2017 won their regional...

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