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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Q2 GDP growth stronger than first estimate on agriculture and inventories
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2018

The second estimate of Q2 GDP, out this morning, has brought about 1% qoq, 4.6% yoy on sda basis, stronger than 0.9% qoq, 4.4% yoy first release. Growth still decelerated from the 4.7% yoy of Q1 (and 4.9% of Q4 2017), but only marginally, which is definitely a positive surprise.Regarding the deta...

August inflation at 6.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2018

Markets today were surprised anew by a higher than expected inflation rate – 6.4% for the month of August, rising from 5.7% in July. The headline figure exceeded even the BSP’s high-end forecast of 6.2%, as the month-on-month rate accelerated to 0.9% in August from 0.5% previously. Core inflation...

South Africa’s fears realized – the economy is in a recession
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Sep 2018

South Africa waited in anticipation to find out if the economy had somehow managed to grow positively or had contracted during the second quarter of 2018. This is because GDP growth recorded negative 2.6% q/q (saar) in the first quarter of the year, and another contraction would place the South A...

July data paints mixed picture and AMLO lacks police rebuilding plan
MEXICO · Report · 04 Sep 2018

Not all the news has been negative. Both business and consumer sentiment continue to climb further into optimistic ranges especially when it comes to their expectations as to how the economy is likely to perform. While export activity and construction investment softened in past months, private c...

Swallowing frogs
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Sep 2018 · 1 response

A new concept is taking shape in Colombia: a president without a congressional majority. Though we’ve yet to see how such an arrangement could work in Colombia, the experiences of neighboring governments, like Vicente Fox’s in Mexico and Pedro Pablo Kuzcynski’s in Peru, are not encouraging. C...

The MPC signals that tightening could be approaching
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Sep 2018

Recent economic indicators point to slowing PC demand domestically, supporting a low inflation environment. The last policy statement had a somewhat hawking bias. Although a rate hike cannot be ruled out this year, much will depend on the shekel and inflationary trends. It is more likely to occu...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2018

With less than a month to go before the first presidential election round, without any inkling of which two candidates will advance to the second round, the economic scenario depends as never before on political outcomes. Although some observers try to minimize the differences in the candidates’ ...

​The end of fiscal gradualism
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 03 Sep 2018

The economic turbulences of the last week which drove, among others, the FX rate above 40 AR$/US$, induced president Macri to give today a rather motivational address to the nation. He announced changes in its cabinet and Argentina's economic policy. In short, he proclaimed an acceleration in tim...

The Allure of Bread and Circuses
INDONESIA · Report · 03 Sep 2018

The 2018 Asian Games began a few days ago, and the headlines have been filled with stories of the athletes’ heroic achievements. Just as in the Roman Empire, this grand event has managed to draw public attention away from various problems, such as the heated preparations for the presidential elec...

PT may replace Lula with Fernando Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2018

After a decision from the Superior Electoral Court, the PT may replace Lula with Fernando Haddad as the party’s presidential candidate. The Lower House and Senate hold a “concentrated effort .The elections and holiday (September 7) may interfere with legislative work. In the Supreme Court, conti...

The longest and deepest cycle in Brazil’s history
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2018

The GDP result for the second quarter reinforces our projection that the economy will only grow by 1.0% in 2018. However, the second-quarter performance cannot be attributed wholly to the truckers’ strike. It unquestionably played a role, but the most recent numbers confirm that after the effects...

Why is the economy in a significant slowdown?... and what to we expect in the short term
PANAMA · Forecast · 03 Sep 2018

Our growth projections for 2018 (3.8%) are lower than what international analysts have argue. ECLAC projects 5.2% growth for the year despite a month-long labor strike in the construction sector from mid-April to mid-May (construction represents almost twenty percent of GDP). IMF is not so optimi...

A fresh debate over GDP measurement, and historical growth
INDIA · Report · 03 Sep 2018

The GDP measurement debate was reignited by a government committee that proposed a historical (“back”) series that accentuated the superiority of GDP growth during the 10 years of the UPA, compared with the four years of the present government. Many economists mechanically interpret GDP data, ...

Beijing has its back to the wall
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Sep 2018

Visiting Beijing nowadays is like marching into a former war zone where the mines have not been removed. It’s not clear how many there are or where they are located but everyone is fearful they are out there somewhere. Financial regulators, foreign diplomats, corporates and private citizens are s...

Inflation nears 18%, the CBRT says I’ll “adjust”
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2018

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat higher than expected 2.3% in August, m/m, taking the 12-month rate to just under 18% (from 15.8% in July), while producer prices surged by a massive 6.6% in the month, with the 12-month rate rising to 32.1%, from 25% in July (Graph 1; Table 1). Needless to say, ...

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