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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2017

Turko-American relationship is on the brink. There is very strong (though not conclusive)evidence that gold trader Mr. Reza Zarrab has decided to confess to charges of violating Iran sanctions, which might implicate some Turkish banks and members of AKP elite. AKP is furious, portraying the trial...

The rebound has begun
PERU · Forecast · 16 Nov 2017

Our latest base scenario is more upbeat. It expects the global economy to grow faster than 3.5% in coming years; for domestic conflicts to work themselves out; and for a more robust than expected domestic economic rebound from the damage caused by the El Niño and the Odebrecht shocks. Signific...

GDP Surprise
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Nov 2017

3Q17 GDP raced past analysts’ expectations, growing 6.9% vs. the median 6.5% forecast. Credit goes to net exports which contributed 1.2ppt to GDP growth as export growth (17%) outpaced import growth (14%). In contrast to robust export performance, growth rates of domestic private demand, particul...

Setting the election stage
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Nov 2017

A surprise candidate entering the presidential race, national popular entertainer and journalist Ksenia Sobchak has significantly undermined Alexei Navalny’s chances to be allowed to run. Although an active opposition member in the past, Sobchak hardly constitutes a threat to the incumbent, yet s...

Support for the government in the Lower House drops in October
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2017

Average support for the Michel Temer administration in the Lower House in October dropped compared to the month of September, declining from 54.56% to 47.67%. However, support in September was inflated by the votes on Political Reform. When we exclude the Political Reform votes from analysis (sev...

Cabinet re-shuffle good for Pension Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2017

Bruno Araújo’s resignation from the Ministry of Cities was expected. Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s recommendation that the party break with the government strengthened the group that advocated the exit. Members of the PSDB who remain in cabinet ministries – Aloysio Nunes, Foreign R...

Week of November 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2017

There will be no important votes in the Senate or activity in the Lower House due to the Wednesday holiday. Pension Reform negotiations continue. According to Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles, a new text will be presented by the end of the week. On Tuesday, November 14, the deadline to join th...

Economics: Positive Impact for Social Programs
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2017 · 1 response

During the previous presidential administration Mexico almost tripled the number of social programs, which climbed to 278 by 2012. Since that time, greater coordination and other factors allowed for fewer programs (down to 149 in 2017) at the same time as austerity has led to a reduction of funds...

Politics: Public Prosecutors. The Weakest Link?
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2017

The extent to which the public has expressed growing concern over worsening corruption and security indicators leads us to expect those two issues to dominate the upcoming presidential contest. As always, the economy will also be a major point of debate, but with GDP at acceptable levels it may n...

A more powerful albeit disappointing Moreno
ECUADOR · Report · 13 Nov 2017 · 1 response

The government submitted for the Legislature’s approval the budget for 2018 together with a new “reform package” that Moreno justified as necessary “to keep schools and hospitals open on the fault of the economic mismanagement of my predecessor”. The tax and trade duties reform contained in th...

Inflation: Headed to the Target with Expectations Anchored
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Nov 2017

The 12-month IPCA in October grew for the second straight month, but still remains under the lower limit of the target interval. However, not only does the yield curve have a large positive slope, the slope has risen in the past few weeks. We insist that this behavior is not the consequence of an...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 12 Nov 2017

We continue to rate political risk perception for Turkey as high, with the possibility of a further downside. PM Yildirim’s Summit with VP Pence in the U.S. failed to deliver any momentum to the troubled relationship. The upcoming trial of Turkish citizens accused of circumventing sanctions on Ir...

Fitch Ratings improves outlook to positive on their sovereign BBB-
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2017

Fitch Ratings joined S&P's recent decision to improve the outlook to Positive from Stable on their BBB- sovereign long-term debt rating maintained for Hungary on November 10, the last revision date for a major rating agency this year. Just as a reminder, Moody's similar rating remains at Baa3/Sta...

Losing sheen
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 10 Nov 2017

Economic outlooks appear to have turned less rosy these days.All eyes are on the tax reform package in congress and the question in many people’s minds is how the economic team will decide potentially hard policy choices should congress pass a tax bill that yields inadequate revenues. This, toget...

Disregard the Downgrade
CHINA · Report · 10 Nov 2017

Q3 growth was stable, though slightly lower. GDP was up 6.8% y/y, down 0.1 pps from Q2, while industrial output was up 6.3% y/y, down 0.5 pps. But industrial output in real terms might be worse than official statistics show. Fixed asset investment has been weakening, and was up 5.8% y/y in Q3. Af...

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