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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of October 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Oct 2017

This Thursday’s holiday will reduce the pace of legislative activity in Congress. Rep. Rodrigo Maia makes an official trip to the Middle East and Europe. The government sends fiscal austerity measures to Congress. Ilan Goldfajn speaks to Congress on monetary policy. IBGE releases unemployment dat...

GDP growth doesn’t mean what you think it means
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Oct 2017 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Over the next few years either reported GDP growth in China will drop very sharply, probably to well below 2-3 percent, or it must surge to levels that will rival or surpass reported GDP growth in the 1990s and 2000s, probably to well above 10 percen...

The End of the Easing Cycle and the SELIC in 2018
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Oct 2017

As expected, the Central Bank cut the interest rate from 8.25% to 7.50% and clearly signaled the intention to lower it to 7.0% at the last COPOM meeting of 2017. There remains the doubt about a final cut of 25 points at the start of 2018, which will be determined by the upcoming data. But our est...

Bad Overshadowing (Some) Good
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Oct 2017

Costa Rica’s short-term indicators continue to show economic activity slowdown, in line with our outlook for 2017. Lower capital inflows from abroad are one reason. The severe monetary contraction after the May FX turbulence is also reducing financial resources, thereby dampening consumer spendin...

GDP On Track to Top 2% this Year, and New Attorneys to be Appointed
MEXICO · Report · 30 Oct 2017

The evidence of a weakening of consumption and investment continued to pile up over the course of October, but there has been no evidence that would lead us to conclude that GDP will grow less than 2.2% this year. In fact, the Mexican economy grew 2.2% in August according to the monthly proxy (IG...

Financial Performance of State-owned Enterprises and the Median Voter
PANAMA · Report · 30 Oct 2017

There are no well-defined criteria that include or exclude State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) in the Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS). Some are included (and therefore have no administrative independence, for example, IDAAN, a water and sewer system management entity), while some are outside the NF...

19th Congress Sends Positive Signals
CHINA · Report · 30 Oct 2017

Growth in Q3 was stable, though slightly lower. GDP was up 6.8% y/y, down 0.1 pps from Q2. Industrial output rose 6.3% y/y, down 0.5 pps from Q2, but still higher than in Q3 2016. However, industrial output in real terms might be worse than official statistics indicate. Since the beginning of ...

Long-term labor shortages continued to build up in Q3
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Oct 2017

What happened on the domestic labor market in Q3 2017 was nothing revolutionary in itself. However, it contributed to the revolutionary long-term process of shrinking unemployment and growing labor shortages, (not so much) indirectly leading to accelerating wage growth and (eventually) higher inf...

The first taste of the political year
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Oct 2017

Indonesian politics will be very busy in the presidential election year in 2019. The first taste of that political year was seen early, during the election for Governor of the Jakarta Metropolitan early this year. However, in 2018, Indonesian politics will be even busier, with a number of regiona...

Winter Has Come
TURKEY · Report · 27 Oct 2017 · 1 response

Last month our Monthly heralded the approach of winter, the cold winds of which began blowing in October. Political conflicts with America and Germany-cum-EU are slowly boiling over to the economy. There is evidence that Turkish banking system might be the target of some type of sanctions, which ...

The Central bank expects IMF wire only in 2018
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2017

The Central bank reported that it expects next wire from the IMF only in 1Q 2018. It was mentioned at the press-release on the prime rate revision today. This is something new. Previously the authorities reassured that next wire will arrive by the end of 2017. The view has changed after recent vi...

The Central bank raises prime rate by 1 ppt up to 13.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2017

The Central bank raised prime rate by 1 ppt up to 13.5% today. The last time prime rate was increased in March 2015. Fast CPI (+10.2% ytd for September), growing inflation expectations, risks related to increased pensions and mounting appreciation pressure made the Board of the Central bank tight...

Pension Reform depends on Temer, Maia & Centrão
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2017

Having defeated the second PGR accusation, President Michel Temer will have to negotiate with his coalition to approve fiscal austerity measures. By securing enough support to reject two accusations in the Lower House, Temer has evinced his ability to negotiate. However, it is clear that dialogue...

MPC Tweaks Words, Hopes It’ll Suffice
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2017

The CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept all short-term rates unchanged today (one-week repo rate at 8.0%, O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respectively; and LLW rate at 12.25%; Graph 1). Although this is exactly what was being anticipated, the news flow in the past 24 h...

SA’s 2017 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Oct 2017 · 1 response

This year's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was delivered by Minister Gigaba yesterday. This was of particular interest for a variety reasons. Most importantly, this was Gigaba's maiden budget policy statement, an opportunity to assess his political economy stance. Minister Gigaba was...

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