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​Visa ban stand-off: Further escalation unlikely
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2017

Finally, I’m able to write a few intelligent lines about the visa ban stand-off between US and Turkey. The good news is that neither side seems to have an incentive to ratchet up the conflict. The bad news is that a climb-down is not likely in the short-term, barring a break-through in an impendi...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017 · 4 responses

Ready to see the second denunciation submitted by Janot considered by the Chamber of Deputies, which should reject it, and suffering from the lowest approval ratings since the Sarney administration, President Michel Temer, with his political burden, has become an important obstacle to the continu...

Temer Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017

Political Reform increases support for government in September - A study by Arko Advice shows that support for the government increased from 43.8% in August to 54.56% in September. In the study, 21 roll-calls from the last month votes were analyzed. The government was not defeated in any of the...

Week of October 9
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017

A short week due to the holiday on the 12th. In the Lower House, the main event is the report on the accusation against President Michel Temer, which should be presented on Tuesday in the Constitution and Justice Committee. On Wednesday, the Federal Supreme Court rules on a case that could deci...

Politics: A Broken Campaign Finance System
MEXICO · Report · 09 Oct 2017

The crisis of credibility of political parties that has festered as part of the broader political crisis of the past three years was magnified in the last two weeks amid calls for the public funding of parties to be redirected to earthquake victims and reconstruction efforts. That clamor undersc...

Economics: No Need to Lower GDP Forecast
MEXICO · Report · 09 Oct 2017

While second quarter data prompted upward revisions to the 2017 GDP forecasts of some analysts and authorities, many have begun scaling back those estimates as evidence of a weakening of consumption and investment have emerged over the course of the third quarter. Some have gone as far as to warn...

Political Reform: Rules approved on the deadline
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017

A Constitutional amendment and two laws with changes to electoral rules were published on the deadline for effectiveness in next year’s election. The main changes were: the creation of a public fund to finance campaigns, the institution of a performance clause for parties, the end of party coalit...

Fiscal Policy Victories and Frustrations
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017

​The economic team has been unquestionably racking up victories on the fiscal front, among them changes in the design of the student loan program (Fies); alteration of the system of setting the interest rates charged by the BNDES, which will eliminate implicit subsidies; and measures to combat fr...

Inflation continues accelerating
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Oct 2017

Our October monthly inflation rate forecast rises to 45 percent. The year-to-October 31 rate jumps to 831 percent and the year-on-year rate reaches 1311 percent. We revised upwards our inflation estimates for August and September. The August month-on-month rate went up to 35 percent (from 33 p...

​Turkey-US visa crisis: If I knew, I’d tell you
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Oct 2017 · 1 response

I have been receiving a great deal of questions regarding the visa crisis between Turkey and US since this morning. It physically pains me not to write an analysis about it, but at this point I don’t have a handle on the crucial question of how this episode of tensions will play out. Yet the conc...

A respite after the storm
PERU · Report · 09 Oct 2017

Pressure on Education Minister Marilu Martens to resign, in the wake of a protracted teachers’ strike, ended up leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Fernando Zavala and his entire cabinet, after Zavala’s call for a vote of confidence over the issue backfired. Within 48 hours, President Pe...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 08 Oct 2017

As the Free Syrian Army units sponsored by Turkey enter rebel-controlled Syrian province of Idlip, Turkey is on the verge of a second military adventure in the neighbor. This one promises to be bloodier than the Euphrates Shield, but it is a necessity to retain a say in the future of the war-torn...

In Political Parties Law, Media Likely to Prevail
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 05 Oct 2017

Although the eye of Hurricane Maria did not touch the country, it came close enough to flood entire towns and plantations, displacing thousands of families, and damaging infrastructure and crops in the East and Northeast. In politics, attention has focused on the debate over the political part...

How is investment faring?
INDIA · Report · 05 Oct 2017

Micro data about investment is reliable and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, we are now able to observe this data for the Jul-Sep 2017 quarter, and it is the first macro data release for the quarter. The broad picture of a stalling of aggregate nominal investment under ...

Advances: Pensions & Eurobonds
UKRAINE · Report · 05 Oct 2017

Parliament finally voted in the long-awaited pension reform, in early October. The law increases effective retirement age (higher requirement of years in service before being vested in a pension), leaving the headline pension age unchanged at age 60. It also envisages immediate pension rises from...

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